Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

January 2024 Banter


George BM
 Share

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Replying here in banter...I would've thought, based on your (presumed/assumed) age, that you would have NO idea who Monty Hall, let alone what "Let's Make a Deal" is...but kudos to you, good sir. I have an even greater respect for your cultural references now.  ;) 

Much appreciated, haha. I'll admit to having never seen the show (before my time ;)) but love the problem. It's so non-intuitive but easy to explain at the same time... kind of fascinating.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Much appreciated, haha. I'll admit to having never seen the show (before my time ;)) but love the problem. It's so non-intuitive but easy to explain at the same time... kind of fascinating.

Oh, and you're NOT wrong....we always want the door that we ultimately didn't choose.  :D 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

ME...currently attempting to monitor the Long Range, Jan Discobs, Jan19 STORM Discobs, and Banter threads...

 

PXL_20240118_222706187.TS-ezgif.com-resize.gif

Funny, but I miss the days when there were like 2-3 threats at once.  People would jump into the "short" range one for the upcoming event, and as soon as that model discussion was done, everyone jumped into the medium range to check out the NEXT one!!!

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Funny, but I miss the days when there were like 2-3 threats at once.  People would jump into the "short" range one for the upcoming event, and as soon as that model discussion was done, everyone jumped into the medium range to check out the NEXT one!!!

Yeah, I feel ya. Still fun to switch...and learn...between all of these convos. And even after a couple decades, I've got a lot to learn...  ;) 

That animated GIF isn't an exaggeration, either...I keep at least one AmWx thread open on my work laptop AND another on my personal Chromebook to my left. Shit moves too fast these days...  :D 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

ME...currently attempting to monitor the Long Range, Jan Discobs, Jan19 STORM Discobs, and Banter threads...

 

PXL_20240118_222706187.TS-ezgif.com-resize.gif

Its funny. I dont even look at the LRT when there is a legit threat. Once the snow starts falling I will glance in there. Once the storm is over I am all in that thread. Until the next threat thread is opened. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Its funny. I dont even look at the LRT when there is a legit threat. Once the snow starts falling I will glance in there. Once the storm is over I am all in that thread. Until the next threat thread is opened. 

Yeahhhhh, but you're a long-timer, who knows what he's looking at, looking for (based on your climo), and can interpret it all, based on the various models/discussions. I'm still working on all that...in PBP on the short-term threats, as well as in the long range convos.

I'll occasionally attempt comic relief...but that's a bit of a cop-out. As someone who wanted to be a met from a very young age (but failed to have the requisite STEM abilities/acumen)...I've enjoyed every minute checking in here for well over the past decade to observe, listen and learn.  ;) 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Those who doubt Nino's In the Mid Atlantic pay the price for their stupidity. 

I'm moving this to the banter thread so not to clog up the obs thread. 

We still have a long way to go to hit climo for some areas. I'm at 8.25 for the season. My average is almost 30. It's even higher in Nino years.

If I get 3 or 4 inches tomorrow I'll be around 12 for the season. I have a long way to go just to get to climo. If we punt most or all of next week it's almost February.  Alot of work to do in 4 to 6 weeks. Sure it can happen. It could happen with just 1 storm. 

This week has been great! I'm loving it! Don't get me wrong, but if your at around 10" mark heading into February was this the December and January you invisioned back in November?

Again I'm so happy for the snow we have gotten. I only had 2" last season which is crazy for Smithsburg at 750ft in elevation at the M/D line 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

I'm at 8.25 for the season. My average is almost 30

I am the exact same. Tomorrow will make 6 days of snow in the first half of Jan for me. And I will be double digits somewhere. So over 30% of climo with our best snow month left to come. I give ZERO weight to long term models. They are literally worthless. They flip flop constantly. My entire forecast was on climo. I have NEVER had a below normal nino winter here. It just has not happened. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Extrapolation of radars makes me wag 2.5 to 3 inches Dale City, 4 inches Washington DC, 4 to 5 inches Cleveland Park in DC and about 6 to 8 inches in Central MD. Eight to 12, maybe 14 in the mountains with this. I need a WxRisk map.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

We need to do this whole "forecast snow amounts double or triple in the final 24 hours before storm start" thing before our February HECS:scooter:

I just want a long-tracker that we can *all* feel comfortable watching unfold.

8", 12", 15", whatever...we need to strike this hot Nino iron and make the most of it in prime climo!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...