mattie g Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 33 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: My wife breathlessly reported to me this past Sun/Mon (based on what the media was feeding her) on a "major winter storm" incoming for NoVA this weekend. I just grinned at her and said, "give it time...you'll take your 33 and rain on Sat and enjoy it." She scoffed, I shrugged. Knowing that I'd get much closer to a realistic forecast discussion here, I forced myself to wait until late last evening to check in for some closer-to-showtime truth. Some good analyses as always, and the usual few bouts of back/forth sniping -- likely borne out of frustration with a retreating rain/snow line. My LOL "gut" forecast shared with my wife was correct, at least for SE FfxCo. Maybe we'll get an hour of snow TV on Sat, but whatever. A decade or more ago, I'd be one of the folks here having a meltdown...but I just can't get upset about this stuff anymore. Lots of talk about the storm and the rain/snow line among the parents at the bus stop the last two days. I've just been telling people to hold off to see where things were come today...and here we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/3/2024 at 11:37 AM, Kay said: This is ofc one of my favorite forum jokes. I can't remember the poster's name but feel like it was someone in or around Bel Air (?) If a model run favored the area it was a NE MD PUMMELING / NE MD PUMMELED -- always all caps. The all caps is very important Stand there sweating, hands shaking, barely able to stand upright, and warn them about the dangers of addiction Pretty sure Ravens94 was the NE MD PUMMELED!!! dude. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 When you are out of the game its easier to handle acceptance 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I'll say this...it feels like every time we've had a modicum of a threat in the last couple/few years (not counting January 2022), a low pops up somewhere in the Great Lakes region. Our thermals get wrecked and we're done for. Every. Single. Time. I know that atmospheric physics is much more complicated than that one thing, but it's just too noticeable...and it's happening again with this storm. That Low that has been showing up near Lake Superior over the 36 hours or so of model runs, and as that thing has deepened just a little and edged ever closer to the Lakes, our thermals have gone to shit. Most of us were pretty close to the R/S line for many of these runs, but once that thing showed up where it did, we were done for.The busy northern stream has been an issue all year long. Just look at how cloudy it’s been for damn near 2 weeks now while I see clear skies often times into central VA and NC. The problem is we’ve generally been on the south side of that upper level flow. I really want to see a clipper show up. Not having those is a sign that we’re still not able to get that NS to dig far enough south, which is also evident from the lack of phasing with the SS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Lots of talk about the storm and the rain/snow line among the parents at the bus stop the last two days. I've just been telling people to hold off to see where things were come today...and here we are. You know that's because of Jays Wintry Mix on FB right? He's got 80k followers lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amorphous Iodine Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Two years ago today south of Fredericksburg. 650 power poles broke and had to be replaced. >>A strong band of frontogenetic forcing around 700 mb, along with plenty of slantwise instability (as evidenced by negative EPV and model cross sections). In addition there was even a little bit of elevated CAPE in the area where it was snowing during the morning. This led to intense banded snowfall that produced rates in excess of 1-2" per hour at times. While the best frontogenetic forcing generally stayed just to the NW of the Richmond Metro (and extended into Dorchester County, MD) through much of the morning, it gradually moved into the metro area during the late morning-early afternoon, allowing for some areas to pick up a quick few inches of snow. The bands of snow weakened as they moved into SE VA as the low pressure system quickly exited to the northeast. The weight of the heavy, wet snow downed several trees across the NW portion of our area, resulting in widespread power outages. There were several counties where 70-90% of residents were without power. At the peak of the event, nearly 450,000 residents were estimated to be without power in the state of Virginia. For many parts of our area, this was the largest snow event since 12/9/2018. In Louisa and Goochland Counties, the tree/infrastructure damage was on par with what occurred during Hurricane Isabel. The excessive amounts of heavy, wet snow were largely responsible for a closure of a portion of I-95 from Caroline County to north of the CWA border that lasted over 24 hours. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I forgot about that Jan. 2022 storm! It nailed Calvert where some of my family lives, whereas here in Germantown my last big snow was 2019. I'm hoping for luck with Saturday's system. In 1978 (in central PG County) we had a system predicted to be brief period of snow then all rain. We got a surprise three hour thump that gave us 5-6 inches, then drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, aldie 22 said: You know that's because of Jays Wintry Mix on FB right? He's got 80k followers lol Yeah, I have a friend over in NE Loudoun Co who still follows him. Every time he mentions him, I just change the subject. Have spent to many hours of my life telling him to unfollow. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: Yeah, I have a friend over in NE Loudoun Co who still follows him. Every time he mentions him, I just change the subject. Have spent to many hours of my life telling him to unfollow. you're not alone. helps to put him on ignore here too 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 When the TLDR version is still TLDR…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 33 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: Yeah, I have a friend over in NE Loudoun Co who still follows him. Every time he mentions him, I just change the subject. Have spent to many hours of my life telling him to unfollow. 19 minutes ago, mappy said: you're not alone. helps to put him on ignore here too I thought this was a joke so I had to check it out myself. I can't believe he has 80k followers. Unreal!! I guess in this era of social media everyone has a platform. Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 38 minutes ago, snowfan said: When the TLDR version is still TLDR…. There is no TLDR with that person. Brevity is not in the wheelhouse for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The Brine is down in the neighborhood. Mind you only on the single family county designated roads. I am in a Townhouse and my small bit of road is considered rural and does not get county maintenance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, Amorphous Iodine said: Two years ago today south of Fredericksburg. 650 power poles broke and had to be replaced. >>A strong band of frontogenetic forcing around 700 mb, along with plenty of slantwise instability (as evidenced by negative EPV and model cross sections). In addition there was even a little bit of elevated CAPE in the area where it was snowing during the morning. This led to intense banded snowfall that produced rates in excess of 1-2" per hour at times. While the best frontogenetic forcing generally stayed just to the NW of the Richmond Metro (and extended into Dorchester County, MD) through much of the morning, it gradually moved into the metro area during the late morning-early afternoon, allowing for some areas to pick up a quick few inches of snow. The bands of snow weakened as they moved into SE VA as the low pressure system quickly exited to the northeast. The weight of the heavy, wet snow downed several trees across the NW portion of our area, resulting in widespread power outages. There were several counties where 70-90% of residents were without power. At the peak of the event, nearly 450,000 residents were estimated to be without power in the state of Virginia. For many parts of our area, this was the largest snow event since 12/9/2018. In Louisa and Goochland Counties, the tree/infrastructure damage was on par with what occurred during Hurricane Isabel. The excessive amounts of heavy, wet snow were largely responsible for a closure of a portion of I-95 from Caroline County to north of the CWA border that lasted over 24 hours. This storm came up in my FB memories today. I worked a county park in the Annapolis area and they got about a foot of heavy wet snow. It was really scenic but caused some extensive tree damage in the area. Spent the next week chainsawing a lot of down trees! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This "storm" broke my rule of only checking this forum 1-2 times a day. I have never put people on ignore before but after this event, I definitely feel like the need too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 They've brined I95 south of Fredericksburg, afraid of a repeat of 2 years ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It’s amazing how SNE can just sneeze and back into a SECS under 100 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Why are people posting 10:1 maps for this storm it's a complete waste of time and energy to even open it on your browser. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It amazes me every winter that someone questions why the NWS issue watches when and why. Watches will usually be issued regardless of an adjustment to a warning, or an advisory. It’s a watch for winter weather ahead in the next couple days, where probably tomorrow will be adjusted to warnings or advisories. Its no different than a severe thunderstorm watch in the summer, where warnings or special weather statements are issued as needed. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 21 minutes ago, mappy said: It amazes me every winter that someone questions why the NWS issue watches when and why. Watches will usually be issued regardless of an adjustment to a warning, or an advisory. It’s a watch for winter weather ahead in the next couple days, where probably tomorrow will be adjusted to warnings or advisories. Its no different than a severe thunderstorm watch in the summer, where warnings or special weather statements are issued as needed. I know, right?! As if there's some magic to whether or not one is issued. Same with blizzard warnings, I swear some people almost seem upset when one is not issued during a major storm and we "only" have a winter storm warning. FFS, people, you get 15" snow and think less of it due to not meeting the technicality of "blizzard!" (ETA... And yeah a watch is issued when the potential exists to meet warning-criteria snow over an area, and will be refined later. Not a guarantee you'll get that!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 God I hate the NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 55 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: God I hate the NAM. LOL, is it sucking you back in?? I've about given up much caring about this where I'm at, but yeah, now I suddenly feel a spark of re-interest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The NAM is hooking so many tonight. It’s doing what it always does 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 LOL, is it sucking you back in?? I've about given up much caring about this where I'm at, but yeah, now I suddenly feel a spark of re-interest!I guess if there’s a chance for it to be right, this storm might be it, simply because of the fringe temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The NAM is hooking so many tonight. It’s doing what it always does The NAM does it best to dragnet all the weenies. Only way to prepare them for the inevitable hope crushing Dr. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, H2O said: The NAM is hooking so many tonight. It’s doing what it always does You guys are getting NAM'med. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 16 hours ago, H2O said: When you are out of the game its easier to handle acceptance Agents of The Reaper are way cool. But, There is nothing like THE REAL REAPER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 One last envelope before I seal it after 12z runs. 0-2" final call around 2pm today...leaning hard towards the 0. Looking like I'll have a productive Friday at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The catch phrases du jour in the main thread will be: -degraded -rolled forward could produce -weaker signal -february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The catch phrases du jour in the main thread will be: -degraded -rolled forward could produce -weaker signal -february And…WHY GOD WHY (with the rest of us mentally saying “Heisey this isn’t even your forum”) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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