Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[RU848789]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

The future, besides additional snow today I78 in PA-NJ as well as LI northward.

Attached is an ensemble based map (CMCE and GEFS) of resultant potential river problems by Wednesday. Purple is potential major, red potential moderate and the brown = minor.  This guidance is accurate IF the 2-3" of rain and snowmelt materializes. 

We'll keep this thread going with storm two (9th-10th) instead of a separate OBS thread.  

The Tue - Wed, flood, heavy rainfall, wind damage reports will flow right into this thread will have integrity from start to finish. 

I dont plan to start any new threads beyond the 10th, until at least tomorrow or Tuesday.  Have a day and NYC, enjoy the new snow later this morning...maybe it can accumulate on grass-cars?

 

 

Walt - thanks and a question.  Can you highlight the differences between the "ensemble" river forecasts and what I guess I'd call the "regular" river flooding forecasts from the NWS (which are both under the "rivers and lakes" tab on the NWS page)?  What is the ensemble of?  Mostly curious why the ensemble forecast has the Passaic at risk of major flooding, while the regular forecast only has that in moderate flooding, as per below and in general the ensemble forecasts are much more serious.  Is one or the other more accurate?  

[NJwx85]

Coming down harder at this point then it did last night but the roads are already clear and treated so it’s only sticking to non paved surfaces.

[Logan11]

3 hours ago, snywx said:

You can see where the band set up last night..

10-15" in the band

Need to extend that a little north now. The Kingston area had a good foot. Then it tails off so by the time you're into Greene County it's 6 or 7 inches. But we remain in steady snow, moderate at times. 6" at my place in Albany County. 28F.

A rather meager 16" of snow for the season to date. Last year we started slow also but then got pounded by three  big wet snowstorms in February/March and closed with 96 inches.

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, Logan11 said:

Need to extend that a little north now. The Kingston area had a good foot. Then it tails off so by the time you're into Greene County it's 6 or 7 inches. But we remain in steady snow, moderate at times. 6" at my place in Albany County. 28F.

A rather meager 16" of snow for the season to date. Last year we started slow also but then got pounded by three  big wet snowstorms in February/March and closed with 96 inches.

Good to see you posting here, hope all is well. 33/31 with light snow, wha5 appears to be a heavier band just to my west. 

[ILoveWinter]

Light to moderate snow in the UWS

[Bxstormwatcher360]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Coming down harder at this point then it did last night but the roads are already clear and treated so it’s only sticking to non paved surfaces.

Heaviest snow of the event falling rn,starting to stick on car tops and greenery too. Incredible..

[rclab]

9 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Snow mixing back in now here in bed stuy

Good morning dm25. Also on the postage stamp as verified by my high tech thermometer. Stay well, as always …..

 

[Snowlover11]

snowing nicely outside, just cleaned the car off, should of waited

[TriPol]

Heavy wet snow here at the Giants game. Nothing accumulating on the ground.

[jetrz]

Some heavy wet snow here in the south Bronx, starting to stick to some grassy surfaces.

[Cfa]

30 minutes ago, Cfa said:

36 with a Rain/Sleet mix in Port Jefferson.

Heavy snow now.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Snowing so hard that the temp dropped to 33 from 36..literally in the last 30 mins or so..RIPPAGE RN!!

[binbisso]

Fell sleep at 8 o'clock last night with the rain woke up at midnight with  .6 inches of snow. It must have flipped some time between then. Snowing lightly now 32°.

[justinj]

Heaviest snow yet here in central LI. Huge flakes, sticking on my deck and grass

[Logan11]

15 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Good to see you posting here, hope all is well. 33/31 with light snow, wha5 appears to be a heavier band just to my west. 

Oh I'm fine.. Of course I am 57 now and not the 27 that I was when I started on the predecessor wx chat and boards. LOL Glad to see you guys again! And that you did so well with this storm. 

I'm 160 miles north of the city now so I don't post in here too much. Remember years ago I was in Saugerties.

[justinj]

[RU848789]

We've had a great snow shower for the past hour or so, which has put down a new dusting despite it being midday and 36F.  So pretty to watch the nice big flakes...

[dWave]

Moderate snow 35* white rain for now.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Temp dropped two degrees. Pretty rapidly. May end as a burst of snow? 

[kat5hurricane]

Pictureesque snow falling now. Big flakes, no wind. Not accumulating but pretty to look at.

[binbisso]

Heavy snow now everything covered

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Temp dropped two degrees. Pretty rapidly. May end as a burst of snow? 

You got it!.. im in the bronx and i can atest to the fact that it's cold and snowing hard rn!!..im close to the freezing mark at 11:30 am after a high of 37 at 6:45 am..

[snywx]

32 w/ moderate snow 

snow growth is excellent right now 

picked up 1” with the second wave

13.2” so far for the event 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

1 minute ago, binbisso said:

Heavy snow now everything covered

You got your snow bud!! 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Snow rain mix now 

[Snowshack]

Flipped to snow and surprisingly covered the ground quickly, 34f in Wading River.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Large flakes uws, I would call it moderate.

[binbisso]

3 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

You got your snow bud!! 

Yup. If there Wasn't that sneaky warm layer last evening Probably would have gotten 3 Inches. 

[wdrag]

30 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Walt - thanks and a question.  Can you highlight the differences between the "ensemble" river forecasts and what I guess I'd call the "regular" river flooding forecasts from the NWS (which are both under the "rivers and lakes" tab on the NWS page)?  What is the ensemble of?  Mostly curious why the ensemble forecast has the Passaic at risk of major flooding, while the regular forecast only has that in moderate flooding, as per below and in general the ensemble forecasts are much more serious.  Is one or the other more accurate?  

 

1.  
2. https://satable.ncep.noaa.gov › naefs

   Ensemble Situational Awareness Table

   The NAEFS Ensemble: A 52-member ensemble consisting of 31 GEFS ensemble members and 21 Canadian (GEPS) members. The GEFS has 30 perturbed members and a control member. The GEPS has 20 perturbed members and a control member. Although the GEFS and GEPS are run at native resolutions of 25 and 39 km, respectively, the NAEFS is distributed on a 1x1 ...

    

   THI Grand ensemble forecast is I think input once/day and then presuming the RFC has the antecedent conditions correct, the river responds to the qpf.  I'll show you with the attachments. 

    

   The RFC forecast itself only out to Jan 10 while this Jan 6 12z ensemble  is out to 10 days. Therefore its when the period ends that determines max river stage.

    

   If the ensemble is wrong, the river response is different. I think the ensembles are pretty good now, and it's a matter of forecaster input into the model that determines the river stages that make the curve.

    

   I use NAEFS in winter: GEFS seems conservative in winter. HEFS, I've no experience.

    

   I think it is wise to consider the NAEFS ensemble river forecast as a good first guess...

   The following should help for Pine Brook: I hope this is useful and you can verify Wednesday and beyond. 

    

    

3.  

 

[lee59]

Wet snow here, 36.4 degrees