Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Albedoman said:

we had 5-8 in here in the Lehigh valley in most places. All I can say is that if you try to shovel this stuff, it is super wet. My snow thrower was having troubling handling it. I see many having heart issues if they try to shovel this stuff in the morning. Its like shoveling pure slush. The snow  ratio had to be less than 6:1. I have not seen this wet of a snow in five years here. The flakes were pancakes coming down for a few hours. 

Oh how I dread Tuesday night as the soils are now super saturated and not frozen. Wind thrown trees and huge flooding problems coming our way for sure from this tropical like  storm in January. Instability in the  soundings talking some thunder too on Tuesday night The water content in tonight's storm event of 6 inches of snow has to be at least one inch or more. Add that to the potential of 2-3+ inches of expected rain and we have record flooding. 

in the southern Poconos just north of you, it was around a foot of snow from Albrightsville up to Blakeslee.  It was snowing 3 inches per hour at Bear Creek.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, snywx said:

Some of the hardest rates I've experienced in a long time. Im hearing reports of 12"+ in NEPA right now. 

yup and it snowed 3 inches per hour!

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yep. Any heavier burst is bringing the cold air down. Too bad we had this easterly wind crap to ruin the initial conditions. 

Was the storm just too close to the coast? We needed a NE wind-- and for that the center of low pressure would have needed to be due south of Montauk when it was due east of Atlantic City right?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, snywx said:

Didn't expect 9" in 2.5 hrs lol

3.6" per hour for 2.5 hours?! You and Julian got into the same band that hit the Poconos with 3" per hour and a foot of snow.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

The winds have def shifted in our favor,the snow falling isnt as wet as earlier,more on the icy side. Which means the warm air has stopped and prob has slowly started to move se across the area and back to all snow overnight. Someone upstate gets 20+ inches just my hunch.

Maybe even in NE PA.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, this is some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen. Almost 7" in the last two hours.

3" per hour widespread from NE PA to your area.  It's going to be interesting to see how large the 10" foot print with this storm is-- I've also seen reports of 10-12" coming from NW NJ.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

Wantage NJ (this prt at 740'MSL): 1030PM obs 11.5" of snow since it began 230PM. Most of that (9.8") in 3.5hours (7-1030PM. Mdt snow still at 1050PM 27.5F. Walt. Corrected 3.5 hour amount at 1056PM.  Sorry for my calculating mistake. 

Nice, there could be an 18" report somewhere out of NW NJ by the time the storm ends.  Basically from NE PA through NW NJ to the Hudson Valley got 12-18" with 3-4 inches per hour rates for 2-3 hours!

[LibertyBell]

I wonder if there were any reports of thundersnow?

I saw some signs of lightning strikes, but they were offshore near the center of the strengthening low.

[Logan11]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Nice, there could be an 18" report somewhere out of NW NJ by the time the storm ends.  Basically from NE PA through NW NJ to the Hudson Valley got 12-18" with 3-4 inches per hour rates for 2-3 hours!

I'm  not sure  how far up the Hudson Valley that serious stuff made it. A foot was reported near Poughkeepsie. It didn't make it to the northern Catskills over to Albany. The band weakened on approach. 3.5" here but the light to moderate snow continues. 23 degrees.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

in the southern Poconos just north of you, it was around a foot of snow from Albrightsville up to Blakeslee.  It was snowing 3 inches per hour at Bear Creek.

 

 

Thank you...looks good.  I'd do a like but the system won't allow me to do reactions. 

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ (this part 12.6"): with freezing drizzle in progress at 28F and the settling has a SD of 11. 

OBS and discussion-OBS for second storm will continue here.  We still have 12 hours to go (4P) before its all dome out of our area. 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Wantage NJ (this part 12.6"): with freezing drizzle in progress at 28F and the settling has a SD of 11. 

OBS and discussion-OBS for second storm will continue here.  We still have 12 hours to go (4P) before its all dome out of our area. 

I'm guessing this would exacerbate the flooding with the next system (those that got 6"+ today)

[Logan11]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Wantage NJ (this part 12.6"): with freezing drizzle in progress at 28F and the settling has a SD of 11. 

OBS and discussion-OBS for second storm will continue here.  We still have 12 hours to go (4P) before its all dome out of our area. 

Nice to see you posting on here! I used to read your great discussions out of BOX in the 90's.

I think you may have come into our old Usenet #weather Channel a few times. Todd Gross started that in '94. 

[wdrag]

Snow holds water initially, ripens and lets loose pretty quick.  My guess is that I80 north will hold water pretty good through 7AM Wednesday, even if the max temp in the 50s occurred prior to 7AM Wed, then it will go fast, til it freezes up Thursday or Friday. Problem area continues I95 corridor, in my opinion, and cellars, esp if power goes out and no back up generators(SAFE USE-PLACEMENT please- no carbon monoxide poisoning please.)

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, Logan11 said:

Nice to see you posting on here! I used to read your great discussions out of BOX in the 90's.

I think you may have come into our old Usenet #weather Channel a few times. Todd Gross started that in '94. 

Not sure why I can't add reactions---thank you for your comment. I do appreciate these.

[Logan11]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Not sure why I can't add reactions---thank you for your comment. I do appreciate these.

Yeah I tried to add emojis to my comment and it wouldn't  let me. Go figure....

[Logan11]

Just saw a report of 7 inches out of Pine Plains at the northern end of Dutchess County so the band had lost some of it's oomph in the ensuing 30 miles from POU north northeast to Pine Plains.

[Nibor]

2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

so now that its just about all said and done which model or models did best with this storm ?

Many up north are not done.

[BoulderWX]

Looking like 10-12 here in the poconos where I am. Well worth the trip up! 

[wdrag]

Adding some maps of snow reports to the NWS... obviously incomplete.  Will add CoCoRaHs after 9AM.  Storm still in progress especially I84 corridor. 

[Allsnow]

8 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

Allsnow and I have a buddy in Vernon who says he has a lot of snow.  I believe him.  

Agreed. Really nice dude 

[wdrag]

The future, besides additional snow today I78 in PA-NJ as well as LI northward.

Attached is an ensemble based map (CMCE and GEFS) of resultant potential river problems by Wednesday. Purple is potential major, red potential moderate and the brown = minor.  This guidance is accurate IF the 2-3" of rain and snowmelt materializes. 

We'll keep this thread going with storm two (9th-10th) instead of a separate OBS thread.  

The Tue - Wed, flood, heavy rainfall, wind damage reports will flow right into this thread will have integrity from start to finish. 

I dont plan to start any new threads beyond the 10th, until at least tomorrow or Tuesday.  Have a day and NYC, enjoy the new snow later this morning...maybe it can accumulate on grass-cars?

 

 

[Maureen]

7 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

@MaureenPicked up 0.5-1.0" of snow for the day. Total precipitation 0.79" Current temp 36

And it was very lovely. For a few moments!

[snywx]

29° w/ lgt snow

12.2" otg

expecting an additional 2-3" today 

[Maureen]

2 hours ago, BoulderWX said:

Looking like 10-12 here in the poconos where I am. Well worth the trip up! 

So jealous! Enjoy! 

[Maureen]

6 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Surprised you didn't get something like our 2" in Metuchen, although I recall seeing the radar indicating it changed to rain to my east earlier than here.  Could being ~8 miles ENE and an earlier changeover and a little elevation (my house is at 110') make that difference?  

Yes, not too far from you but a difference.  Unfortunately!  Coating didn’t last long here. 

[snywx]

You can see where the band set up last night..

10-15" in the band

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, BoulderWX said:

Looking like 10-12 here in the poconos where I am. Well worth the trip up! 

which part?

12.6 is the highest I have seen, I wonder if anyone hits 15-18 by the end of this?

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, snywx said:

You can see where the band set up last night..

10-15" in the band

wow 12-18 right near the Delaware Water Gap, along I-80 from there to the Poconos exits near and beyond I-81.

and snow has redeveloped in NE PA so more could accumulate.

[snywx]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow 12-18 right near the Delaware Water Gap, along I-80 from there to the Poconos exits near and beyond I-81.

and snow has redeveloped in NE PA so more could accumulate.

It stretches from NE PA through extreme NW NJ into Orange county & Dutchess county