Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Definitely. We really need to keep that high strong to have a chance 

Nam would be sniffing out warm layers as we wait to flip to sleet

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Need the 50 50 to hold 

Talking about  a different 50. 50 miles of a shift in any direction would make a huge difference in what this run shows. I hate being in the bullseye this far out. That 50 50 low is key.

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

U have the Kuchera?

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

U have the Kuchera?

Similar 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I'm leaning towards taking the suppression solutions off the table. We are in what would normally be the time-frame where suppressive solutions would dominate. Only the GFS and last night's Euro to an extent have shown significant suppression. I think a major event of some kind is likely here. Exactly what, we wait another few runs to know for sure.

WX/PT

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Similar 

Thanks just found in the MA forum....

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm leaning towards taking the suppression solutions off the table. We are in what would normally be the time-frame where suppressive solutions would dominate. Only the GFS and last night's Euro to an extent have shown significant suppression. I think a major event of some kind is likely here. Exactly what, we wait another few runs to know for sure.

WX/PT

And as Walt Drag just mentioned, there is another system on its heels to contend with.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

And as Walt Drag just mentioned, there is another system on its heels to contend with.

That system most likely all or almost all rain along the coast and in the big cities as the primary tracks into the Lakes.

WX/PT

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

And as Walt Drag just mentioned, there is another system on its heels to contend with.

that one starts as frozen

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

With that high you think the models cold bias will hold in this situation? 
 

Just 1-2° too warm in an already marginal set up would be an issue. This storm may turn out as a be careful what you wish for if the interior spots get a significant snow. December has seen record rainfall and flooding in the Northeast. There is strong model support for a follow up system which would probably cut to the Lakes. Heavy rains + snowmelt would be really unwanted for interior spots. Even coastal areas could eventually see flooding with more follow up heavy rainstorms. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, bluewave said:

Just 1-2° too warm in an already marginal set up would be an issue. This storm may turn out to be a be careful what you wish for if the interior spots get a significant snow. December has seen record rainfall and flooding in the Northeast. There is strong model support for a follow up system which would probably cut to the Lakes. Heavy rains + snowmelt would be really unwanted for interior spots. Even coastal areas could eventually see flooding with more follow up heavy rainstorms. 

No follow up heavy snowstorms? 

[North and West]

Take a model run series off and come back to exactly your prediction. Supression depression. 
 
I know we’re a week off but overwhelming guidance shows a souther slidern. Some seas will see flakes but this is definitely not a snow storms lol for NY metro 

Eh, maybe you’re right, but maybe it’s just people’s desire to prove they’re correct, so you stake out a claim on an outcome a long range out and then double down on it, and then enjoy the status of a correct long range call.

I see it in my industry too, as well as in economic news. Just my two cents.


.

[bluewave]

Just now, Allsnow said:

No follow up heavy snowstorms? 

Interior spots could see more frozen plus an eventual changeover to plain rain with the follow up cutter.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Interior spots could see more frozen plus an eventual changeover to plain rain with the follow up cutter.

Not that I don’t think that system cuts but I wonder if it trends weaker if the 7th system is so strong 

[wdrag]

12 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm leaning towards taking the suppression solutions off the table. We are in what would normally be the time-frame where suppressive solutions would dominate. Only the GFS and last night's Euro to an extent have shown significant suppression. I think a major event of some kind is likely here. Exactly what, we wait another few runs to know for sure.

WX/PT

I am in agreement with you.  If we are to suppress big time, I think we'll know at this time tomorrow.  Models are improving D5 in and few major debacles that I recall. Anyone can refresh me on debacles since 2022 inside 5 days.

Stuff I look at:  13z BOM rainfall through the 10th... VERY large but the 4" probably will shrink to 3.  IF NOT, widespread moderate flooding would be my concern 10th-11th after the basic qpfs are done. BOM snowfall through Sunday eve. This is NWS base. BOM includes percentages of models and ensembles.

 

I added one frequent flooder  in NJ, but to give an idea what NWS uses for longer range til reality qpf hits the basin.  This is for NAEFS 2.5" 4th-10th. 

 

[North and West]

STOP THE COUNT!

LOCK IT IN


.

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm leaning towards taking the suppression solutions off the table. We are in what would normally be the time-frame where suppressive solutions would dominate. Only the GFS and last night's Euro to an extent have shown significant suppression. I think a major event of some kind is likely here. Exactly what, we wait another few runs to know for sure.

WX/PT

Will be interesting to see what the 0z op and ensemble runs do tonight but southern branch systems almost always trend further north and west when you get to within 78 hours of start time, sometimes significantly so, which is why you don’t like to see them tracking close at this range. That said, I guess you cannot take suppression totally off the table yet. As far as the follow up storm, that appears to be a pure lakes cutter right now and probably very heavy rain the middle of next week 

[SnoSki14]

Getting a significant snow event to the coast with a trough out west like that is unheard of. 

I expect further N&W trends so that the coast is mostly rain. At this point snowfall this year for the coastal plain will be relegated to February when the Pacific should improve. 

[wdrag]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just 1-2° too warm in an already marginal set up would be an issue. This storm may turn out as a be careful what you wish for if the interior spots get a significant snow. December has seen record rainfall and flooding in the Northeast. There is strong model support for a follow up system which would probably cut to the Lakes. Heavy rains + snowmelt would be really unwanted for interior spots. Even coastal areas could eventually see flooding with more follow up heavy rainstorms. 

Agree 100%.  While reality has not occurred... if this general modeling continues through both storms... this will be a memorable  pair of events, NOT THE WORST but for January will rank as significant  I think this more of a spring setup. We cant forget wind and coastal flooding.

If the first one misses to our south, then the above paragraph is misleading. 

[Allsnow]

EPS snow mean for nyc went up to 6 this run 

[psv88]

Still an eternity before this storm to really get invested. I expect the trend of the last 3 years to play out, which is repeated bumps N and W until it rains for everyone and it cuts to Pittsburgh 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Allsnow said:

EPS snow mean for nyc went up to 6 this run 

yup. 6-8 on the mean for I-78 and north, good clustering. ECMWF OP was on the tucked side

[brooklynwx99]

6-8" on the mean for the EPS is a very strong signal. you don't see that very often outside of 5 days

[Allsnow]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

6-8" on the mean for the EPS is a very strong signal. you don't see that very often outside of 5 days

Looks like the majority of the idv give accumulating snow to nyc 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Getting a significant snow event to the coast with a trough out west like that is unheard of. 

I expect further N&W trends so that the coast is mostly rain. At this point snowfall this year for the coastal plain will be relegated to February when the Pacific should improve. 

I don’t buy that backloaded Nino pna/Aleutian low pattern being forecasted by many in this forum and on Twitter . I think the next few weeks might be the best shot we have to get a significant snowfall 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t buy that backloaded Nino pna/Aleutian low pattern being forecasted by many in this forum and on Twitter . I think the next few weeks might be the best shot we have to get a significant snowfall 

Yeah its risky to keep kicking the can if this weekend doesn't work out

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t buy that backloaded Nino pna/Aleutian low pattern being forecasted by many in this forum and on Twitter . I think the next few weeks might be the best shot we have to get a significant snowfall 

What I don’t buy is a sustained -EPO. IMO it flips back positive earlier than anyone is expecting. The models have been notorious for over predicting -EPO’s in the long range for a few years now. An El Niño this strong is not going to allow for sustained -EPO nor will it allow a favorable PAC jet for very long 

 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

He saw his shadow = 6 more weeks of winter that said I would rather the models be showing this than nothing at this point,,,,ps a lot can happen many days and time for changes

It used to be a given the gfs would be suppressed at this range and come north at the last minute. That was supposedly fixed with the upgrade but it may end up being the case again 

[WestBabylonWeather]

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS snow mean for nyc went up to 6 this run 

 

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

6-8" on the mean for the EPS is a very strong signal. you don't see that very often outside of 5 days

[jayyy]

What I don’t buy is a sustained -EPO. IMO it flips back positive earlier than anyone is expecting. The models have been notorious for over predicting -EPO’s in the long range for a few years now. An El Niño this strong is not going to allow for sustained -EPO nor will it allow a favorable PAC jet for very long 
 

Huh? El Niño is the mechanism that’s finally allowing the PAC to become more favorable. The PAC has been the proverbial kiss of death for the entire east coast the past few years. Not sure I agree with this. The EPO part, sure, it won’t remain negative… but disagree about the pac jet. The niño helps prevent the pac jet from remaining too extended for too long. The entrenched niño longwave pattern is what’s allowing our pattern to become more favorable - especially in the mid Atlantic.