Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[weatherpruf]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new 6z op Euro is correct that’s what it going to happen, it has warm nose mixing issues all the way up into Rockland/Bergen counties. It cut snow totals even more than 0z

It always changes and mixes further and faster than expected; it's probably going to disappoint a lot of people. It's just the way things have rolled for a long time now. 

[wdrag]

Regarding Tue-Wed; No changes.  

 

Right now ensemble guidance is projecting about 8 river forecast points from Philly to ne NJ moderate flood, and 3 potentially major.  Additionally if 3.5" qpf occurs by 00z/11, and we add another inch around the 13th (ensemble total 4.5)... The Passaic at Pine Brook would probably be at a minimum in moderate flood 10th-15th.  All this predicted on how much rain.  Ensembles predictions of river response for NJ is pretty good. That same guidance is giving a bunch of streams in CT minor flood. 

[ForestHillWx]

Understood that 80% of this forum is going to rain, but are we doing obs here? 

25/18 currently. Best of luck to those of us who see the goods. 

[BxEngine]

Just now, ForestHillWx said:

Understood that 80% of this forum is going to rain, but are we doing obs here? 

25/18 currently. Best of luck to those of us who see the goods. 

Yea. Post em here. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

It always changes and mixes further and faster than expected; it's probably going to disappoint a lot of people. It's just the way things have rolled for a long time now. 

Pruf, Snowy19 or anyone else, I realize that some models sniff things out and pick up on things better than others but wouldn't  the HRRR which is now inside its wheelhouse or another short range model at least show signs of this as well ? Are any other short range models hinting at this ?

[wdrag]

25 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Understood that 80% of this forum is going to rain, but are we doing obs here? 

25/18 currently. Best of luck to those of us who see the goods. 

Yes...obs here... coming soon. already sleeting Baltimore area. I think snow issuing to break out mid morning PA. 

[wdrag]

3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Pruf, Snowy19 or anyone else, I realize that some models sniff things out and pick up on things better than others but wouldn't  the HRRR which is now inside its wheelhouse or another short range model at least show signs of this as well ? Are any other short range models hinting at this ?

HRRR has no acc NYC.  Most models and BOM less than 1/2" if anything NYC.  We'll soon know.  

 

Model warm nose is minor early and can be overcome by 1-2 hours of Strong UVV in the dendrite zone, if that thump occurs this far northeast of the low.  I am sure we'll see lots of sleet/snow reports on here by 430PM.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully we can keep it under 1.0" to preserve the record.

The record is kind of a joke anyway since LGA and JFK both have had 1.0 in that time frame, and so has the Park, they just haven't recorded it, the 0.9 the perfect example.

I'm sure whoever is not doing their job measuring today and tomorrow at the Park will insure the record stays intact. It's a 150+ year track record of ineptness that they wear proudly.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The record is kind of a joke anyway since LGA and JFK both have had 1.0 in that time frame, and so has the Park, they just haven't recorded it, the 0.9 the perfect example.

I'm sure whoever is not doing their job measuring today and tomorrow at the Park will insure the record stays intact. It's a 150+ year track record of ineptness that they wear proudly.

they don't even measure until it changes to rain and it's mostly gone anyway

 

[Snowlover11]

26/22 clouds rolling in.

[ILoveWinter]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The record is kind of a joke anyway since LGA and JFK both have had 1.0 in that time frame, and so has the Park, they just haven't recorded it, the 0.9 the perfect example.

I'm sure whoever is not doing their job measuring today and tomorrow at the Park will insure the record stays intact. It's a 150+ year track record of ineptness that they wear proudly.

Agreed and as I've posted before, I live near the Park and recorded around 1.5 in multiple locations during one of the storms last year.  Issue was that it didn't last long so they may have missed it.

[donsutherland1]

Latest EPS and NBE numbers:

As the EPS is based on 10:1 ratios, those figures should probably be cut in half given the low ratio snow that is likely due to above freezing temperatures. For example, the high probability of 1" or more snowfall should be read as showing a high probability of measurable snowfall. Wet snow should fall for a time in NYC, but the opportunity for accumulation will likely be limited to periods where it falls moderately. My guess is that a slushy inch remains likely in Central Park.

 

[Sampson]

Got a place booked up in Saugerties NY tonight. Leaving the island around 1. Hopefully it’s worth it. 

 

[Byrdhousebv]

27/16 here in eastern Monmouth Co. Maybe we'll get lucky and see some white rain out of this

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Got a place booked up in Saugerties NY tonight. Leaving the island around 1. Hopefully it’s worth it. 

 

Now that the warm air may be going a little further inland, I think the Kingston-Saugerties area could be the bulls eye. Far enough north to stay snow and far enough south to be in the heavier bands. Probably double digit totals.

[Snowlover11]

got a friend who lives in ellensville, NY he’s gunna get plastered with 8-12”+

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Got a place booked up in Saugerties NY tonight. Leaving the island around 1. Hopefully it’s worth it. 

 

If its the Hojo, it certainly isnt!

[Sampson]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Now that the warm air may be going a little further inland, I think the Kingston-Saugerties area could be the bulls eye. Far enough north to stay snow and far enough south to be in the heavier bands. Probably double digit totals.

Kinda my thinking as well. Maybe should’ve went with more elevation but had to take what I could get at this stage. Nice little place for my wife and kids. We can also bring the dog which will be fun. He doesn’t road trip all that much. 

[donsutherland1]

Latest Winter Storm Severity Index:

[Sampson]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

If its the Hojo, it certainly isnt!

No, it’s a vrbo property. I know that Hojo, though. You are 100% right 

[North and West]

It was pretty cold overnight and the ground is all frozen here, so it *shouldn’t* have an issue accumulating once it hits.

Me looking outside this evening:



.

[LoboLeader1]

Still on board here in western MA for 1st snowfall of the year. Current temp here 25F, back in HPN 30F

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 253AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... * Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

57 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Got a place booked up in Saugerties NY tonight. Leaving the island around 1. Hopefully it’s worth it. 

 

To close to the river.

In the HV you usually want to be west of the river at least 5 miles for the optimal snows, elevation will matter in this event more than usual.

[cannoliman42]

59 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Got a place booked up in Saugerties NY tonight. Leaving the island around 1. Hopefully it’s worth it. 

 

Also driving up to Ulster County today. Desperate times call for desperate measures. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

50 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

got a friend who lives in ellensville, NY he’s gunna get plastered with 8-12”+

Pretty sure most of Orange County should be in that, no need to go all the way up to Ellenville.

[Sampson]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

To close to the river.

In the HV you usually want to be west of the river at least 5 miles for the optimal snows, elevation will matter in this event more than usual.

Yup. Definitely not the best spot but I’ll be happy with 4 plus. Told my wife to find something in the Catskills yesterday and this is what she went with. I should’ve been more involved but I was crazy at work. We may have to take take a jeb drive tomorrow 

[snywx]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Pretty sure most of Orange County should be in that, no need to go all the way up to Ellenville.

Absolutely.. I think if anything O.C might jack this event.. Paul Goodloe from TWC is in the area lol

[snywx]

12z NAM.. 

[MANDA]

Holding with my 4-6" forecast for my location and still believe will go to mix and perhaps just plain rain at 33/34 degrees overnight / early morning.  I am thinking 4" will be closer to actual than the 6" but staying with that range.

[psv88]

19 this morning in Suffolk, 31 now. Waiting for the rain