Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

do you guys think models are underestimating wet bulbing effect?


.

No

[Rjay]

5 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The models were showing a well OTS solution and then I think the 12z Euro on 12/24 started the trend back. Models are a lot improved from then. Hard to believe I’ve been on this board since before that storm.

12z gfs 12/24

[HVSnowLover]

22 minutes ago, justinj said:

Does anyone think this coast has atleast a shot at an inch? Seems very unfavorable

Depends how you define coast? 

[HVSnowLover]

19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Not really....I think the Newark/NYC/LGA area does have a shot for something here but you probably need to see this come in 2-3 hours ahead of what most models have now.  That is an area that could if everything went right probably see like 2-3 inches.

If it came in 7 am instead of 7 pm this is likely accumulating snow for everyone but it is what it is. 

[NJwx85]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Good luck 

The whole if it’s not snow nobody cares is lame. You might not care, and no need to clog up this thread with BS then.

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

12z gfs 12/24

I was close lol

[HVSnowLover]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm not either but I want him to do it anyway haha

I’m not going to do it but I’ve literally considered going somewhere to storm chase and sleeping in a car. 

[MJO812]

Euro is so close to mostly snow for NYC. It's a hair south.

What a cutoff

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is so close to mostly snow for NYC. It's a hair south.

What a cutoff

Map? 

[KeithB]

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I’m not going to do it but I’ve literally considered going somewhere to storm chase and sleeping in a car. 

I have storm chased before....but personally, I would wait until an 18+ type storm is gonna hit the chase area. I've done Monticello, Albany, North Conway NH, and western Mass. But I recommend a hotel and not your car

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is so close to mostly snow for NYC. It's a hair south.

What a cutoff

No 

 

 

[wdrag]

fwiw... 4PM NWS collaborated snow forecasting experimental impact.

 

For me, looks half an inch or so conservative I95 where I think an inch will fall but melt quite bit on initial contact 2-4PM. AFTER the initial thump goes by around 9P, it warms aloft for a few hours.  Matter of temp during snow. If 33 CP Will get some whitening on the snow board.  NBM and most models pretty conservative so that's the prevailing forecast.  None of em are easy.

[Wannabehippie]

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Better question is why would you want it anyway... it'll be washed away almost immediately, so might as well keep the historic snowless streak going as long as possible.

That is my thought as well. Get to 2 full  years of no snow, then we can get some snow.

 

[HVSnowLover]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No 

 

 

Well there is a sharp cutoff between mostly rain and mostly snow falling but the big totals still seem way NW of NYC. 

[SnowGoose69]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No 

 

 

 

The Euro last few years has been stupidly too cold in these events it seems so often.  

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The Euro last few years has been stupidly too cold in these events it seems so often.  

It’s one of the warmest currently 

[SnowGoose69]

47 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

If it came in 7 am instead of 7 pm this is likely accumulating snow for everyone but it is what it is. 

Well physically in this setup that could not happen lol...the reason events like 2/2008 happen where it comes in way early is usually due to the high positioning.  Our biggest events happen when the high center is new PWM when the event starts and usually is near southern Ontario or maybe Huron/Georgian Bay day prior.   In this case the high is simply way too far north

[HeadInTheClouds]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s one of the warmest currently 

and driest. 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

I’m not going to do it but I’ve literally considered going somewhere to storm chase and sleeping in a car. 

Just come out to Vernon tomorrow morning and get a room at Crystal Springs. Awesome hotel. Good bars, great restaurants. Skiing. Appalachian Trail is a 5 minute drive. You will have snow .

[mikeysed]

4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Just come out to Vernon tomorrow morning and get a room at Crystal Springs. Awesome hotel. Good bars, great restaurants. Skiing. Appalachian Trail is a 5 minute drive. You will have snow .

I literally did this. I'm leaving at 1030 am tomorrow from southern morris county lol

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, mikeysed said:

I literally did this. I'm leaving at 1030 am tomorrow from southern morris county lol

Good for you! Have fun! And drive safe.

[psv88]

I want to see snow at my house, not somewhere else lol

[donsutherland1]

EPS and NBE information.

Note: EPS data is based on 10:1 ratios. Actual ratios will be much lower given the above freezing temperatures during the storm.

My guess is that Central Park will likely see a slushy inch of snow while lower Manhattan, Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island see a coating.  There is still room for minor changes.

I remain concerned about the combination of warm soundings and above freezing temperatures.

[MANDA]

27 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

I literally did this. I'm leaving at 1030 am tomorrow from southern morris county lol

Toot your horn as you pass exit 30 on I-80.

Former southern Morris County resident now west central and up at about 1000'.   It makes a difference in snow totals in certain situations...tomorrow being one of them.

[MANDA]

This looks pretty good to me.  I'm going with 4-6 here.  Snow to a mix back to some modest snow before ending Sunday.  The 2" on L.I. north shore looks a bit much and I'd go with .50 - 1" CP if they measure timely and properly.

[jm1220]

28 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I want to see snow at my house, not somewhere else lol

Still hopeful for a sloppy inch. I guess if any place on LI can end up with something it’ll be my area. 

[HVSnowLover]

NAM I'd say is a tiny bit colder/snowier this run especially for the zone between 95 and 287.
 

Also has the backend snow that I'm very skeptical of.

 

 

[North and West]

Toot your horn as you pass exit 30 on I-80.
Former southern Morris County resident now west central and up at about 1000'.   It makes a difference in snow totals in certain situations...tomorrow being one of them.

This is acting very much like a storm from my childhood (borderline snows at MMU, lots in the higher elevations); the past twenty years had been a pleasant surprise when we’d get more than Sussex and Warren.


.

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still hopeful for a sloppy inch. I guess if any place on LI can end up with something it’ll be my area. 

I agree with that. 

[SnowGoose69]

12 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM I'd say is a tiny bit colder/snowier this run especially for the zone between 95 and 287.
 

Also has the backend snow that I'm very skeptical of.

 

 

The backend stuff I do not think you'd have the snow growth required to really produce much