Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

Wrong. it's west and a bit colder


.

I'm talking about the initial surge. The second wave I guess we'll see if anything actually pans out with that.  

[wilsonvoid1]

I'm talking about the initial surge. The second wave I guess we'll see if anything actually pans out with that.  

do you guys think models are underestimating wet bulbing effect?


.

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I'm talking about the initial surge. The second wave I guess we'll see if anything actually pans out with that.  

It’s better with both. 

[kat5hurricane]

3 hours ago, milleand said:

NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential

 

around pages 81-84

Just reading through it now. What a thrill ride that was from the hopelessness of 12/23 to complete weather porn on 12/24. I was just lurking back then but it was exhilarating reliving that thread and interesting that it was the GFS leading the EURO on the trend back west back in the days when Euro truly was King.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

i meant east and colder


.

Nice thump for NYC and then not alot of rain after. It also snows on the back.

[NJwx85]

GFS overall is about the same for NYC proper but better inland.

[NJwx85]

The GFS is even more amped up for the next system. That one will be the much bigger story than a few inches of snow.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

GFS overall is about the same for NYC proper but better inland.

Slightly south and east but similar. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Slightly south and east but similar. 

NYC is 34 degrees on both the 12z and 18z runs at 06z Sunday.

[MJO812]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

NYC is 34 degrees on both the 12z and 18z runs at 06z Sunday.

I will be in the Bronx tomorrow so hoping to see some snow lol

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I will be in the Bronx tomorrow so hoping to see some snow lol

Probably need to be in the Bronx after 7 pm as I think that's the approximate start time?

[nycsnow]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS is even more amped up for the next system. That one will be the much bigger story than a few inches of snow.

Winds looking impressive again 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Probably need to be in the Bronx after 7 pm as I think that's the approximate start time?

I will be there all night lol

[vegan_edible]

so i gotta drive from the west village back to wp around 9ish tomorrow night... 

in my 03' corolla

how screwed am i

[rclab]

6 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

so i gotta drive from the west village back to wp around 9ish tomorrow night... 

in my 03' corolla

how screwed am i

I have faith in you and the Corolla. Sure and steady, get home safe. As always ….

 

[HVSnowLover]

18 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

so i gotta drive from the west village back to wp around 9ish tomorrow night... 

in my 03' corolla

how screwed am i

Likely fine, definitely fine from the west village to the central Bronx. North of there iffy but highways probably be wet, maybe slushy north of the Cross County.

[vegan_edible]

9 minutes ago, rclab said:

I have faith in you and the Corolla. Sure and steady, get home safe. As always ….

 

corolla vs saw mill pkwy

[Stormlover74]

Pretty high for 4 days out

[shadowsintherain]

I will be in the Bronx tomorrow so hoping to see some snow lol

So will I. Band is playing at Brewskis on E Tremont. Fun loading in during snow/slop/rain. Ugh!


.

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

corolla vs saw mill pkwy

just send it.

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I will be there all night lol

There's a nice park up there, you can stand there and measure the snow for us and live post about it every hour.

[HVSnowLover]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There's a nice park up there, you can stand there and measure the snow for us and live post about it every hour.

I'm probably less convinced than you that they'll be much snow falling in that park for more than a few hours.

[justinj]

Does anyone think this coast has atleast a shot at an inch? Seems very unfavorable

[wdrag]

fwiw.... T sections for NYC (LGA) when large dendritic growth shortly after onset arrives NYC on the GFS and 3K NAM.  Temp lowest 25 MB in question and if its snowing...wont be more than 33-34 at 7PM Sat evening.  00z/7 CP ob may have some snow acc? 

 

 

Anyway, this is another way to look at a specific location vertical profile. On sample.  Can do moisture, R#, wind profiles etc. 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, justinj said:

Does anyone think this coast has atleast a shot at an inch? Seems very unfavorable

Not really....I think the Newark/NYC/LGA area does have a shot for something here but you probably need to see this come in 2-3 hours ahead of what most models have now.  That is an area that could if everything went right probably see like 2-3 inches.

[lee59]

Already in the upper 20s here. If the precip came in early tomorrow, would have a chance for some accumulating snow here but coming in late afternoon diminishes chances a lot.

[NJwx85]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Not getting snow so not worried 

 

Keep your sump pump plugged in and everything will be fine 

Not for people that live in low lying or flood prone areas. And power outages will be an issue with saturated ground and strong wind gusts.

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I'm probably less convinced than you that they'll be much snow falling in that park for more than a few hours.

I'm not either but I want him to do it anyway haha

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Not for people that live in low lying or flood prone areas. And power outages will be an issue with saturated ground and strong wind gusts.

Good luck 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, justinj said:

Does anyone think this coast has atleast a shot at an inch? Seems very unfavorable

Better question is why would you want it anyway... it'll be washed away almost immediately, so might as well keep the historic snowless streak going as long as possible.