Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I'm right next to Allgame, so much appreciated, Don!  We'll have to see if we can anything out of the Sunday part.  NWS disco seems to think that's still on the table.

Hopefully, that scenario will play out. 

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Hi Don, how about for a hearty area of NJ, MMU (Morristown). Thank you

Probably 3”-5” (more at higher elevations).

[allgame830]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Probably 3”-5” (more at higher elevations).

Id assume your thoughts for Northern Westchester are the same?

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Id assume your thoughts for Northern Westchester are the same?

3"6" for the northern half of Westchester (most a higher elevations).

[mannynyc]

Not to beat a dead horse but the 18z HRRR does appear to be coming in colder

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Reminder: Avoid 10:1 Snow Maps. Go to the Soundings.

Latest illustration: 12z GFS at 36 hours. The maps show moderate to heavy snow at JFK. The sounding supports rain. The column is above freezing until one reaches 925 mb. The surface temperature is 38°. Based on the soundings, JFK has little or no accumulation of snow rather than the amounts shown on the 10:1 maps.

I highlighted the 0°C line for ease of viewing.

Hard to tell from that image on my phone, but looks like 0C is around 960mb.

[donsutherland1]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

Hard to tell from that image on my phone, but looks like 0C is around 960mb.

The text also showed 0.0C at 925 mb.

[the_other_guy]

45 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NWS is pretty bullish for Westchester and Rockland compared to recent model trends.  

I don’t think they’re being bullish at all. At least compared to AccuWeather, which I know is a for-profit entity.

 

No watches warnings advisories nothing

and if I read my text forecast its showing rain with snow mixed in

 

This map looks exactly like many of the model runs

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea last year north Bronx got like 5 inches when Central Park measured I think like 1 during the only snow event last year. I doubt that happens this time but NYC is big. 

Most of nyc is coastal and flat. Northern Manhattan and the Bronx is really a different climate zone 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Most of nyc is coastal and flat. Northern Manhattan and the Bronx is really a different climate zone 

Bronx is also part of the mainland US too which helps with cold air drain off the continent...

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I don’t think they’re being bullish at all. At least compared to AccuWeather, which I know is a for-profit entity.

 

No watches warnings advisories nothing

and if I read my text forecast its showing rain with snow mixed in

 

This map looks exactly like many of the model runs

The point and click for HPN is 3-6 inches.

Yonkers is 2-4 inches.

Would expect  advisories soon for the southern part of the county.

 

 

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The point and click for HPN is 3-6 inches.

Yonkers is 2-4 inches.

Would expect  advisories soon for the southern part of the county.

 

 

but I don’t think those amounts are bullish given the model runs we’ve been seeing.

 

I think going one to three in Central Park is probably bullish

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

but I don’t think those amounts are bullish given the model runs we’ve been seeing.

 

I think going one to three in Central Park is probably bullish

I guess it's not. They seemed to also lower totals a little compared to the last time I looked.

[cleetussnow]

Sweet spot is Putnam on this side of the river (that's still inside 'metro' so to speak).  NWS Point and click is 7 to13 up yonder and we've seen all that in the models as well.  I do see they are factoring in the Sunday bit and that is going to have to happen to touch the higher end numbers.  

[vegan_edible]

14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

but I don’t think those amounts are bullish given the model runs we’ve been seeing.

 

I think going one to three in Central Park is probably bullish

 

[Snowlover11]

wow upton with a warning here 5-9” that’s bullish 

[vegan_edible]

dont wanna be this guy

but

 

nam colder

[BoulderWX]

6 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

dont wanna be this guy

but

 

nam colder

Pretty similar. And same cut off 

[mannynyc]

3k NAM real nice front end thump

[mannynyc]

Similar look on the HRRR

[HVSnowLover]

18 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

dont wanna be this guy

but

 

nam colder

More for some, less for others. The bigger snow line did seem to come Southeast.

[HVSnowLover]

The NAM is not a good model but this is why this is still a tricky forecast between I95 and I287.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024010518&fh=51&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=nam

[HVSnowLover]

Quite possibly too cold but temps decent at precip onset on the NAM from northern parts of NYC on north.

 

  https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024010518&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[HVSnowLover]

14 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Similar look on the HRRR

HRRR basically all snow to dry slot. Best case scenario for I95 region through northern LI. 

[NJwx85]

2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

I guess the only silver lining of tomorrows storm being less snow is no rapid snow melt concerns except for far northern areas of the subforum.

The snow melt will be in Northern NJ and places like Orange and Rockland that feed the river systems in NJ.

[NJwx85]

The Euro has another big storm MLK weekend.

[Allsnow]

Not getting snow so not worried 

 

Keep your sump pump plugged in and everything will be fine 

[MikeS]

 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

HRRR basically all snow to dry slot. Best case scenario for I95 region through northern LI. 

It’s not reliable at this range.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s not reliable at this range.

Not at all but one can dream