Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[NJwx85]

15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Can't the tappan zee get congested during rush hour?

Yes. You have be across before 7am on morning rush hour going South and the evening commutes can be terrible.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

That's incorrect.  Plenty of snow "falling" - it's just not clear how much of it will accumulate with 34-35F surface temps; during the thump part, NYC looks to be below 32F (barely) for the whole column, which is good.  So verbatim there will be snow and if we can avoid a warm nose aloft (who knows?) I think a few inches (not the 4.3" on the 10:1 map below) is likely - as per the GFS, not a forecast.  

You’re using a 10:1 map which is highly innacurate in this storm. Temps are in the mid 30’s. At best you’re looking at 1-3” in NYC and in the outer boroughs facing the water that could be generous.

Look at the positive snow growth.

White rain doesn’t count.

[Snowlover11]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

That's incorrect.  Plenty of snow "falling" - it's just not clear how much of it will accumulate with 34-35F surface temps; during the thump part, NYC looks to be below 32F (barely) for the whole column, which is good.  So verbatim there will be snow and if we can avoid a warm nose aloft (who knows?) I think a few inches (not the 4.3" on the 10:1 map below) is likely - as per the GFS, not a forecast.  

nyc is not receiving 4.3”, cant rely on clown maps specially in this setup. thats also on 10:1 ratios. 

[North and West]

We had a huge snowstorm in NYC with the low hugging the coast a few years ago.

Come to Morris County! There’s at least one other Mets fan here.




.

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

That's incorrect.  Plenty of snow "falling" - it's just not clear how much of it will accumulate with 34-35F surface temps; during the thump part, NYC looks to be below 32F (barely) for the whole column, which is good.  So verbatim there will be snow and if we can avoid a warm nose aloft (who knows?) I think a few inches (not the 4.3" on the 10:1 map below) is likely - as per the GFS, not a forecast.  

This looks way over done.

[ChescoWx]

[RU848789]

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

How come 10 miles west of Boston is so much bigger a difference in these storms than 10 miles north or west of NYC? Is it because of the latitude? 

Could be at least partly elevation, as 10 miles W of CPK is still only ~50' in elevation, while 10 miles W of Boston is more like 150'.  

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

nyc is not receiving 4.3”, cant rely on clown maps specially in this setup. thats also on 10:1 ratios. 

I think people are missing the point though. No one is saying those numbers are accurate but also saying it's almost all rain when it's showing 4 inches liquid equivalent of snow is also not accurate. Anyway I think 1-3 for northern parts of the city is the best case scenario here regardless. 

[snywx]

23 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Most NYPD and FDNY that I know up this way work in the bx 

Yeah.. Ive been doing the commute now for about 20 yrs. 

22 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Can't the tappan zee get congested during rush hour?

It can but the new bridge def helped with congestion. I cross that bridge at 6am and I cruise through 

[BxEngine]

5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

nyc is not receiving 4.3”, cant rely on clown maps specially in this setup. thats also on 10:1 ratios. 

Hes not saying that. He was responding the to “all rain” comment of the gfs with proof the gfs is “seeing” snow. He isnt using the 10:1 maps to show how much central park will receive. 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

How come 10 miles west of Boston is so much bigger a difference in these storms than 10 miles north or west of NYC? Is it because of the latitude? 

Mostly yes. They have more cold air available and room to deal with weaker confluence before the storm is pushed east. 

[snywx]

12z GFS Kuchera 

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, North and West said:

Come to Morris County! There’s at least one other Mets fan here.




.

I grew up in Pompton Plains. My parents still live there. We always did great in marginal storms.

[Snowlover11]

5 minutes ago, snywx said:

Yeah.. Ive been doing the commute now for about 20 yrs. 

It can but the new bridge def helped with congestion. I cross that bridge at 6am and I cruise through 

rockland coming into westchester gets bad after 7am. I come home from yonkers to nanuet at that time. it starts building up from the bridge to nearly exit 14. which is roughly 5 miles.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Hes not saying that. He was responding the to “all rain” comment of the gfs with proof the gfs is “seeing” snow. He isnt using the 10:1 maps to show how much central park will receive. 

If you look at the 12z GFS soundings you’re looking at a quick flip to rain or mixed precip after only an hour or two. Perhaps it’s too warm. We shall see. 

[RU848789]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

nyc is not receiving 4.3”, cant rely on clown maps specially in this setup. thats also on 10:1 ratios. 

I know, I said that.  I included the 10:1 map, as that shows how much snow is "falling" to illustrate that it's not "mostly rain."  Kuchera shows about 2" and I think that's underdone on the model verbatim, as column temps are below 32F on the model until the surface and given decent intensity (once snow starts accumulating, subsequent snow is not affected much by above 32F surface temps, as the actual surface is now 32F snow/slush), even NYC will accumulate maybe 2-3" from that 4.3" of snow falling.  That's my informed opinion.  I'm  not a met, but I guarantee you a PhD in chem eng'g and 30+ years of doing hard science including a lot of work in heat transfer and physical chemistry phase transitions (crystallizations and melting - with several patents in the field for organic molecules) and a lifetime of observing high intensity snow accumulating when people said it wouldn't (think most March/April storms), means a little bit.  This is not really a "meteorology" question (assuming the model is correct and no warm nose aloft, just above 32F at the surface), but a physical chemistry/rate question.  

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, snywx said:

12z GFS Kuchera 

2-4” in NYC, less in Brooklyn and SI. If it really comes down hard I could see that on colder surfaces.

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

I know, I said that.  I included the 10:1 map, as that shows how much snow is "falling" to illustrate that it's not "mostly rain."  Kuchera shows about 2" and I think that's underdone on the model verbatim, as column temps are below 32F on the model until the surface and given decent intensity (once snow starts accumulating, subsequent snow is not affected much by above 32F surface temps, as the actual surface is now 32F snow/slush), even NYC will accumulate maybe 2-3" from that 4.3" of snow falling.  That's my informed opinion.  I'm  not a met, but I guarantee you a PhD in chem eng'g and 30+ years of doing hard science including a lot of work in heat transfer and physical chemistry phase transitions (crystallizations and melting - with several patents in the field for organic molecules) and a lifetime of observing high intensity snow accumulating when people said it wouldn't (think most March/April storms), means a little bit.  This is not really a "meteorology" question (assuming the model is correct and no warm nose aloft, just above 32F at the surface), but a physical chemistry/rate question.  

my apologies i misread you’re point.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I know, I said that.  I included the 10:1 map, as that shows how much snow is "falling" to illustrate that it's not "mostly rain."  Kuchera shows about 2" and I think that's underdone on the model verbatim, as column temps are below 32F on the model until the surface and given decent intensity (once snow starts accumulating, subsequent snow is not affected much by above 32F surface temps, as the actual surface is now 32F snow/slush), even NYC will accumulate maybe 2-3" from that 4.3" of snow falling.  That's my informed opinion.  I'm  not a met, but I guarantee you a PhD in chem eng'g and 30+ years of doing hard science including a lot of work in heat transfer and physical chemistry phase transitions (crystallizations and melting - with several patents in the field for organic molecules) and a lifetime of observing high intensity snow accumulating when people said it wouldn't (think most March/April storms), means a little bit.  This is not really a "meteorology" question (assuming the model is correct and no warm nose aloft, just above 32F at the surface), but a physical chemistry/rate question.  

NYC receives around 0.3 QPF before issues begin on the 12z GFS. That’s why you will see 2-4” on Kuchera. But that’s mostly on grassy and cold surfaces. And Brooklyn and SI change over very fast.

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I know, I said that.  I included the 10:1 map, as that shows how much snow is "falling" to illustrate that it's not "mostly rain."  Kuchera shows about 2" and I think that's underdone on the model verbatim, as column temps are below 32F on the model until the surface and given decent intensity (once snow starts accumulating, subsequent snow is not affected much by above 32F surface temps, as the actual surface is now 32F snow/slush), even NYC will accumulate maybe 2-3" from that 4.3" of snow falling.  That's my informed opinion.  I'm  not a met, but I guarantee you a PhD in chem eng'g and 30+ years of doing hard science including a lot of work in heat transfer and physical chemistry phase transitions (crystallizations and melting - with several patents in the field for organic molecules) and a lifetime of observing high intensity snow accumulating when people said it wouldn't (think most March/April storms), means a little bit.  This is not really a "meteorology" question (assuming the model is correct and no warm nose aloft, just above 32F at the surface), but a physical chemistry/rate question.  

I hope your correct with NYC getting 2-3 inches. Out here I would be happy with about an inch of snow.

[North and West]

How come 10 miles west of Boston is so much bigger a difference in these storms than 10 miles north or west of NYC? Is it because of the latitude? 

Boston is also a city with a population of 675,000; New York, 8,800,000.

New York and the metro are slightly larger.


.

[BxEngine]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

NYC receives around 0.3 QPF before issues begin on the 12z GFS. That’s why you will see 2-4” on Kuchera. But that’s mostly on grassy and cold surfaces. And Brooklyn and SI change over very fast.

Measurements arent made on well traveled roads. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, BxEngine said:

Measurements arent made on well traveled roads. 

Went back and looked at my original post. I said almost all rain, maybe an hour or two of slop. I stand by that statement. I don’t believe any sites in NYC record over 2” unless things trend differently today.

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

Went back and looked at my original post. I said almost all rain, maybe an hour or two of slop. I stand by that statement. I don’t believe any sites in NYC record over 2” unless things trend differently today.

I could see 2 inches in Van Cortlandt Park but idk if that is an official site.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

Went back and looked at my original post. I said almost all rain, maybe an hour or two of slop. I stand by that statement. I don’t believe any sites in NYC record over 2” unless things trend differently today.

Or the models bust and we get several inches like we did a few years ago.

[snywx]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I could see 2 inches in Van Cortlandt Park but idk if that is an official site.

Yeah thats my thinking as well. Thats prob gonna the area within the city limits that receives the most snow. Yonkers prob the same. You will prob start to see advisory level snows once you get into the HPN area. 

[HVSnowLover]

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

If you look at the 12z GFS soundings you’re looking at a quick flip to rain or mixed precip after only an hour or two. Perhaps it’s too warm. We shall see. 

Again not saying this will happen but just hypothetically in a setup like this 2 hours of heavy snow would produce more accumulation than 6 hours of light snow so for me it's less about how fast it changes over and more how heavy the precip is when it is snowing. 

[lee59]

If it is a early thumping of snow that is what the coast needs, then we better hope for an early start of the precip.

[Nibor]

14 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Measurements arent made on well traveled roads. 

Central Park’s weather observer reading this:

[Snowlover11]

honestly just curb your expectations if your expecting 1-3” expect 1” if your expecting 2-4” expect 2” and so forth.