Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

And who knows what the euro will do in an hour

Yup. So happy to actually have something interesting to look at on these models for once.

[forkyfork]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We certainly got lucky with that one

the pattern was perfect for a nyc ku

[mannynyc]

GEFS members

[MANDA]

57 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

GEFS is south.

 

Bigger point is the way the surface high becomes one extended all the way to Bermuda. That’s a “too warm” problem for all densely populated locations along the coast. West is best.

Nice to have a high to the "north" but that is far from a classic "look" for snow in the big cities.  Personally I like the "banana" look with center over the northern lakes.  That high position with marginal cold air to begin with ain't gonna cut it along and southeast of I95.  Even interior could have issues with mix depending on exact track.  I'm not sold on an all snow solution for any part of this sub forum to be honest.  I'm more concerned for further north coast hugger than suppression.

[lee59]

Were 5-6 days out, nobody knows what will happen but there is hope and possibility. At this point, as far as I am concerned, a little to far south or a little to close to the coast means were still in the game.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the pattern was perfect for a nyc ku

Alot of blocking for that event 

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the pattern was perfect for a nyc ku

Exactly!  It was just the details that took a bit to fine tune but those maps were classic "big event" look.

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

GEFS members

Ensembles don't agree with the GFS OP suppression idea - good signal for now

[RU848789]

6 pages for a storm that's 6+ days out in an extremely fragile setup, which could easily miss us or just rain on us (along 95), tells us how snow-starved we all are.  I just like the fact that there's some chance of getting decent snow and something to track for a change.  We are certainly due for a little luck after watching every threat fizzle last winter and we haven't even had any real threats so far this winter.  

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

6 pages for a storm that's 6+ days out in an extremely fragile setup, which could easily miss us or just rain on us (along 95), tells us how snow-starved we all are.  I just like the fact that there's some chance of getting decent snow and something to track for a change.  We are certainly due for a little luck after watching every threat fizzle last winter and we haven't even had any real threats so far this winter.  

If this was a week after the boxing day blizzard I think we'd be doing the same thing lol

[Allsnow]

So far euro is stronger with the SW compared to 06z but the lead energy off the east coast is stronger 

[Allsnow]

Confluence is stronger on the euro this run. I don’t see this making a cmc type jump north this run 

[kingbaus]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Confluence is stronger on the euro this run. I don’t see this making a cmc type jump north this run 

Hopefully it isn't suppression city

[kingbaus]

Looks north

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, kingbaus said:

Looks north

It will be further north then 00z but not to the cmc extent. It’s stronger but more progressive which helps 

[MJO812]

[Allsnow]

Speed is what saves this run from being worst imo. Euro has the brunt of the system sat afternoon 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

Looks north

[Allsnow]

Big hits for northern Pa lower Hudson valley and sne 

 

988 south of LI 

[Allsnow]

[Stormlover74]

Looks like a sleetfest for portions of the nyc metro. Just add it to the pile

[RU848789]

Faster system, precip arrives after dark, plenty of snow, verbatim.  Significant snow on the table is all I'm looking for at this point.  

[jm1220]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Dec 2020 storm vibes here. 

[NEG NAO]

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Dec 2020 storm vibes here. 

Definitely. We really need to keep that high strong to have a chance 

[bluewave]

Concerning how close to us the track is at 144 hrs since amped systems like this often tick further west the closer in we get. Plus we have the cold bias with all the models running too cold this winter days 5-6. Then much of what the Euro shows is a mix along the coast but gets counted as SN in those 10:1 charts. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Concerning how close to us the track is at 144 hrs since amped systems like this often tick further west the closer in we get. Plus we have the cold bias with all the models running too cold this winter days 5-6. Then much of what the Euro shows is a mix along the coast but gets counted as SN in those 10:1 charts. 

Need the 50 50 to hold 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Concerning how close to us the track is at 144 hrs since amped systems like this often tick further west the closer in we get. Plus we have the cold bias with all the models running to cold this winter days 5-6. Then much of what the Euro shows is a mix along the coast but gets counted as SN in those 10-1 charts. 

With that high you think the models cold bias will hold in this situation? 
 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Concerning how close to us the track is at 144 hrs since amped systems like this often tick further west the closer in we get. Plus we have the cold bias with all the models running too cold this winter days 5-6. Then much of what the Euro shows is a mix along the coast but gets counted as SN in those 10:1 charts. 

so you are taking the suppression solutions off the table ?

[wdrag]

A couple things: Added WPC 17z met expert desk on winter wx.  They aren't perfect but they have tools we dont and faster. 

Also, I see a lot of references to big busts in the past. I think modeling has generally improved since 2020.   Maybe this is another but odds are against a 1/2"+ qpf miss I84 south. Ptype another story.

The 16z WPC QPF was probably made before GEFS 12z qpf... but now when you take the remaining ensembles from CMCE and probably the EPS...they have this more or less right in their 12z products. 

Also the thread was written for two storms... inclusive of large qpf by 00z/11 2-iso 6", potential for damaging wind and a snow event possibility to track. I dont think we said NYC would get heavy snow but we have members in CT/NJe PA that are interested.  If I were to write thread for only NYC... much less often.