Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, snywx said:

Trust me I know the feeling. Growing up in the BX in the 80s/90s I used to cringe when I frequently heard "NW of 287".. Being a weather weenie like many of us are, moving up here to orange county in 2000 was the best! Doubled my snowfall average in a short 55 min drive ( no traffic of course ) lol

The only thing that is stopping me from moving to Orange County is the traffic to my job.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

12z RGEM about the same as past few runs. RGEM is usually a good predictor of the worst case scenario but also way closer to reality than the NAM/GFS. 

It got a little better for the city/95 corridor folks. Took me from under an inch to 3 at 10:1 of course. Maybe I can squeeze out 2

[the_other_guy]

Just now, MJO812 said:

The only thing that is stopping me from moving to Orange County is the traffic to my job.

get a new job. Once you leave the city, it’s like a breath of fresh air literally and figuratively. life is just easier.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We had a huge snowstorm in NYC with the low hugging the coast a few years ago.

yes but you had an true arctic airmass.    We have modified polar/continental air this go around.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The only thing that is stopping me from moving to Orange County is the traffic to my job.

That would be 2 hrs each way at least.  Unless you were working 3 12 hr shifts or something it doesn't make sense.

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It got a little better for the city/95 corridor folks. Took me from under an inch to 3 at 10:1 of course. Maybe I can squeeze out 2

I’m looking at kuchera maps. Temps 35-36 in the city no way it’s 10:1. It was a very slight improvement. It does show CPK at 0.6 with kuchera. 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

It got a little better for the city/95 corridor folks. Took me from under an inch to 3 at 10:1 of course. Maybe I can squeeze out 2

It was good to see RGEM improve slightly. Our area is on the edge and this looks like what we've been thinking all along -- maybe a slushy inch or two on colder surfaces for our area. Maybe. Wouldn't be surprised if it's just a coating. 

RGEM has a bit of a warm bias, but as usual it outperformed the NAM big-time. We've seen that so many times in recent years. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I’m looking at kuchera maps. Temps 35-36 in the city no way it’s 10:1. It does show CPK at 0.6 with kuchera. 

Car topper at best with those temps and you'd need heavy rates

[jbenedet]

38 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Trend to watch today is secondary vort interaction primarily regarding what happens on the back end for the interior.  Comfortable with the idea of SE fetch being strong at 850 for a portion of overnight Sunday, to me coastal situation is pretty clear and has been for some time now.

This is an excellent point. 850 track has been trending up and in. Very tucked.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

It was good to see RGEM improve slightly. Our area is on the edge and this looks like what we've been thinking all along -- maybe a slushy inch or two on colder surfaces for our area. Maybe. Wouldn't be surprised if it's just a coating. 

RGEM has a bit of a warm bias, but as usual it outperformed the NAM big-time. We've seen that so many times in recent years. 

I'm thinking it could be close to last year's biggest storm. I got 2.4 the end of February mostly on colder surfaces. Though it was even warmer that day before the precip moved in

[winterwx21]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I'm thinking it could be close to last year's biggest storm. I got 2.4 the end of February mostly on colder surfaces. Though it was even warmer that day before the precip moved in

HRRR is in its long range, but right now it's showing about that for our area. Let's hope we can squeeze out a couple inches. 

[Nibor]

14 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Front end thump with 2-4"/3-6" probably across most of region. 

[HVSnowLover]

I think <1 inch for most of the city/LI is a good call. Maybe 1-3 if lucky north of the cross Bronx and then west of I95 in NJ. 3-6 around 287 corridor. 6+ past there. 

[NJwx85]

I have nothing new to add that hasn’t already been said. Steep gradient that should run East of the GSP (Spring Valley/Montvale) and South of 287/87 in Rockland and Westchester. The difference beteeen Yorktown and Yonkers could be over 6”. Places like West Milford and Warwick with some elevation will be near a foot or more. This is a 5-6 hour quick dump unless the secondary system works out for Sunday. My current thought is whatever falls Sunday morning will be light and not impact totals much.

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I have nothing new to add that hasn’t already been said. Steep gradient that should run East of the GSP (Spring Valley/Montvale) and South of 287/87 in Rockland and Westchester. The difference beteeen Yorktown and Yonkers could be over 6”. Places like West Milford and Warwick with some elevation will be near a foot or more. This is a 5-6 hour quick dump unless the secondary system works out for Sunday. My current thought is whatever falls Sunday morning will be light and not impact totals much.

Agree the main storm is sat night. The backend Sunday stuff will mainly be a thing north of our region imo.

[NJwx85]

The super high res models like the FV3 Hi-Res indicate that accumulatins are very elevation dependent with this system. Even across Rockland which usually does well in these systems could see less than 2” on the Southeast portion near Nyack and over 10” in the hillier areas that border Orange County.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree the main storm is sat night. The backend Sunday stuff will mainly be a thing north of our region imo.

My current thinking is that it develops a few hours too late. Some of the high res models however do indicate the potential for some backend snows on Long Island.

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The super high res models like the FV3 Hi-Res indicate that accumulatins are very elevation dependent with this system. Even across Rockland which usually does well in these systems could see less than 2” on the Southeast portion near Nyack and over 10” in the hillier areas that border Orange County.

I could see elevation having influence for sure but not sure if it’ll be that elevation dependent at least for the more northern areas. Surface seems pretty cold everywhere especially north of 84 but as you said I could even see places in upper Westchester like Yorktown/Peekskill seeing 6+. 

[NJwx85]

Models are in agreement on a sub 980 surface low tracking over Lake Erie. The current model depiction would bring heavy rain and very windy conditions even well inland. Potential for widesprad 2-4”+ of rain and wind gusts in excess of 50mph will result in a moderate to high threat of power outages, made worse with saturated grounds. Area rivers which have recently experienced flooding will once again be stressed. Rapid snow melt, especially in Northern areas will exacerbate the flooding threat.

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I could see elevation having influence but not sure if it’ll be that elevation dependent at least for the more northern areas. Surface seems pretty cold everywhere especially north of 84 but as you said I could even see places in upper Westchester like Yorktown/Peekskill seeing 6+. 

Never underestimate orographic lift. 

[NJwx85]

12z GFS so far is stronger and further North.

[NJwx85]

12z GFS, NYC starts as a few wet flakes and quickly flips to rain or mixed precip. At 00z they are already 34 degrees.

[NJwx85]

12z GFS, rain snow line near 287/87 by 06z.

[mikem81]

Really shows just how difficult it is to get Snow in NYC with a -PNA. Just doesnt happen anymore. SE flow at upper level and LP way too close to us

[NJwx85]

Almost all rain for NYC on the 12z GFS. Maybe an hour or two of slop.

[Stormlover74]

Nice thump just north of R/S line

 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

Really shows just how difficult it is to get Snow in NYC with a -PNA. Just doesnt happen anymore. SE flow at upper level and LP way too close to us

The track isn’t the issue. You have a retreating high and a weak storm. Remember when this looked like it might hit DC?

[mikem81]

Also shows just how much of a difference there is climate wise between Boston and NYC

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z GFS, NYC starts as a few wet flakes and quickly flips to rain or mixed precip. At 00z they are already 34 degrees.

The GFS is actually show a pretty impressive thump for a few hours for the places cold enough to be all snow.

[NJwx85]

The high which isn’t strong to begin with is over Nova Scotia by Saturday night. No cold air drainage.