Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

... in other more "unrealistic" news

nam appears to be more east 

shows a decent front end thump then mixing to rain in westchester/dryslotting nj at 06z. we'll see if the trailing shortwave does anything. 

also its the nam so at this point its just fun and games

I honestly don’t even bother with the NAM anymore. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

I honestly don’t even bother with the NAM anymore. 

I’ll be thrilled when it’s finally tossed in the trash for the replacement, I think RRFS? In any case thankfully it’s being retired so we don’t waste anymore time on it. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Highland Lakes NJ

Click here for hazard details and duration

Winter Storm Watch

Today
 

Sunny

High: 32 °F

Tonight
 

Increasing
Clouds

Low: 23 °F

Saturday
 

Mostly Cloudy
then Snow
Likely

High: 33 °F

Saturday
Night

Heavy Snow
and Blustery

Low: 28 °F

Sunday
 

Snow Likely

High: 32 °F

Sunday
Night

Mostly Cloudy

Low: 26 °F

Monday
 

Sunny

High: 37 °F

Monday
Night

Partly Cloudy

Low: 19 °F

Tuesday
 

Chance Wintry
Mix then
Wintry Mix

High: 41 °F

Detailed Forecast

Today

Sunny, with a high near 32. West wind around 10 mph.

Tonight

Increasing clouds, with a low around 23. West wind around 5 mph.

Saturday

Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 33. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 28. Blustery, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Highland Lakes NJ

Click here for hazard details and duration

Winter Storm Watch

Today
 

Sunny

High: 32 °F

Tonight
 

Increasing
Clouds

Low: 23 °F

Saturday
 

Mostly Cloudy
then Snow
Likely

High: 33 °F

Saturday
Night

Heavy Snow
and Blustery

Low: 28 °F

Sunday
 

Snow Likely

High: 32 °F

Sunday
Night

Mostly Cloudy

Low: 26 °F

Monday
 

Sunny

High: 37 °F

Monday
Night

Partly Cloudy

Low: 19 °F

Tuesday
 

Chance Wintry
Mix then
Wintry Mix

High: 41 °F

Detailed Forecast

Today

Sunny, with a high near 32. West wind around 10 mph.

Tonight

Increasing clouds, with a low around 23. West wind around 5 mph.

Saturday

Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 33. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 28. Blustery, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Congrats! you got room for a dozen or so of us to crash at your house

[NittanyWx]

Trend to watch today is secondary vort interaction primarily regarding what happens on the back end for the interior.  Comfortable with the idea of SE fetch being strong at 850 for a portion of overnight Sunday, to me coastal situation is pretty clear and has been for some time now.

[HVSnowLover]

I’m reading these posts and yes the lack of cold air is definitely a problem but it’s January and you don’t need an amazing airmass. The bigger problem is storm track too close to the coast. If it tracked further SE the best dynamics would be near the coast and it would be snow. 

[vegan_edible]

my ONLY hope here is that since the nam came in a little more south and east, the big boy models will follow suite. thats a stretch and a half right there but a little adjustments and we could see something a little more bountiful especially for me and my fellow prairie dwellers of i-287. 

long shot, 11th hour, fingers crossed energy for the 12z suites that will be dropping in the next few hours

[NittanyWx]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I’m reading these posts and yes the lack of cold air is definitely a problem but it’s January and you don’t need an amazing airmass. The bigger problem is storm track too close to the coast. If it tracked further SE the best dynamics would be near the coast and it would be snow. 

There was still going to be an 850 low issue and warm nose to contend with.  The best dynamics for wraparound band have been clearly centered over New England.

 

Track on the GFS is still DelMarVa to the benchmark or close to it.  If the airmass weren't as poor it would help, but the 'best dynamics' are a function of vort/SW interaction which is primarily a timing issue/handling of that rather than surface low track.

[rclab]

16 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

seriously, appreciate your efforts don. it's quite insane how these things work. i'm 28 and have cut social media out of my life (amwx and slap skateboarding forum are my only "social" medias now lol), the younger generation is driven by immediate and constant gratification due to advances in technology and this bleeds into other facets of society. everyone wants big numbers, now, faster, better, and will forget about it in 2 seconds. compile that with storytelling vs science and you have a dangerous combination. it diminishes the hard work that you and other mets do to provide an accurate forecast for the people. it saddens me to think that if our society could take a step back and let the real professionals take the reigns we would all be much happier, safer and grateful for what we have. unfortunately, it seems as though critical thinking and rationalization has gone out the window. i've learned so much from you and some notable others on this board in the one year i've been on here and it's truly a gift to see where the real science flourishes

Good morning v_e. I had to look up slap skateboarding. I was relieved to find that it’s a wonderful pastime for the young and fit. When I first read it, I had U Tube visions of Will cruising around slapping folks at random. Stay well, as always ….

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, NittanyWx said:

There was still going to be an 850 low issue and warm nose to contend with.  The best dynamics for wraparound band have been clearly centered over New England.

When it snows big time in upstate and central NE it rarely snows big time at the coast. The low is too close to the coast hence pumping warm air in Sat night. The track is the bigger issue than the airmass imo. 

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

my ONLY hope here is that since the nam came in a little more south and east, the big boy models will follow suite. thats a stretch and a half right there but a little adjustments and we could see something a little more bountiful especially for me and my fellow prairie dwellers of i-287. 

long shot, 11th hour, fingers crossed energy for the 12z suites that will be dropping in the next few hours

Tough call for sure along I287 corridor. Lean that’s the dividing line between nuisance event and bigger snows. No surprise as that’s how it often is. 

[kat5hurricane]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Um who ? We had a chance of accumulating snow when this storm was modeled to stay south of us. It wasn't until it trended north when things changed.

A lot of us were saying that this wasn't a snow event for the coast for days now. It was a Hail Mary attempt essentially with how marginal the setup is.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

When it snows big time in upstate and central NE it rarely snows big time at the coast. The low is too close to the coast hence pumping warm air in Sat night. The track is the bigger issue than the airmass imo. 

If it was 3 to 5 degrees colder we'd have had a nice thump but still had to deal with the warm nose aloft changing many to sleet but it might have at least been 90% frozen even at the coast. Now if we do get a thump down here its going to be late tomorrow afternoon and with temps in the upper 30s we're going to lose some to melting. Best case scenario we drop to 33 or 34 tomorrow evening, snow is moderate to heavy for a few hours and we pick up 1 to perhaps 3. This is mostly for my area NW of 95 and south of 78

[NittanyWx]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

When it snows big time in upstate and central NE it rarely snows big time at the coast. The low is too close to the coast hence pumping warm air in Sat night. The track is the bigger issue than the airmass imo. 

Again, the sfc low track isnt the primary issue for the dynamic forcing argument you're making.  There was always going to be a clear period of SE fetch and marginal temps at the coast which were and have been highlighted as a hindrance.

 

There was a thought for some here that 'dynamics' fixes that issue, as if the surface low is the primary focus of the storm on that front when the dynamic argument is mostly a function of secondary SW interaction and timing of that with the primary.   Those two things aren't directly linked to each other.

 

The issue with this marginal airmass and trying to thread the needle has been highlighted here by multiple folks for almost a week now.

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If it was 3 to 5 degrees colder we'd have had a nice thump but still had to deal with the warm nose aloft changing many to sleet but it might have at least been 90% frozen even at the coast. Now if we do get a thump down here its going to be late tomorrow afternoon and with temps in the upper 30s we're going to lose some to melting. Best case scenario we drop to 33 or 34 tomorrow evening, snow is moderate to heavy for a few hours and we pick up 1 to perhaps 3. This is mostly for my area NW of 95 and south of 78

Yea that’s fair with a better airmass this is 1-3 snow to sleet back to snow for NYC/Coast which is better than what will likely happen with this storm. 

[vegan_edible]

4 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning v_e. I had to look up slap skateboarding. I was relieved to find that it’s a wonderful pastime for the young and fit. When I first read it, I had U Tube visions of Will cruising around slapping folks at random. Stay well, as always ….

slap can definitely be a cesspool, but warms my heart you looked it up hahaha!

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea that’s fair with a better airmass this is 1-3 snow to sleet back to snow which is better than what we are getting. 

And today will be the first seasonable day we've had in quite some time so the airmass isn't even terrible but we have alot of other factors contributing to a less than ideal track

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Again, the sfc low track isnt the primary issue for the dynamic forcing argument you're making.  There was always going to be a clear period of SE fetch and marginal temps at the coast which were and have been highlighted as a hindrance.

 

There was a thought for some here that 'dynamics' fixes that issue, as if the surface low is the primary focus of the storm on that front when the dynamic argument is mostly a function of secondary SW interaction and timing of the primary.   Those two things aren't linked.

I get what you are saying I think? But the surface low still seems to kind of hug the coast up to SNJ before it shunts east? 

[snywx]

45 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

nws still giving me 3-7 in wp. my westchester crew still has a chance to see something here

HPN should be in line for a nice advisory event. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 1-2" reports coming from  as far south as areas like Van Courtlandt in the BX. This is your classic 90s snowstorm 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, snywx said:

HPN should be in line for a nice advisory event. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 1-2" reports coming from areas like Van Courtlandt in the BX. This is your classic 90s snowstorm 

Seems every storm the past few winters has trended back to the 90s and brings back frustrating memories. I don’t live where I want to live but living at the bottom of Westchester is still better than growing up in Queens. I agree I expect about 1-2 inches of slop here but better than a total blanking I guess. 

[donsutherland1]

National Blend of Models Output (0z and 12z cycles):

The 1/5 14z run decreased a little more to 0.5". It shows a minimum temperature of 36° during the precipitation. Any snow that falls in the NYC area will be low- to very low-ratio snow.

[snywx]

12 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Seems every storm the past few winters has trended back to the 90s and brings back frustrating memories. I don’t live where I want to live but living at the bottom of Westchester is still better than growing up in Queens. I agree I expect about 1-2 inches of slop here but better than a total blanking I guess. 

Trust me I know the feeling. Growing up in the BX in the 80s/90s I used to cringe when I frequently heard "NW of 287".. Being a weather weenie like many of us are, moving up here to orange county in 2000 was the best! Doubled my snowfall average in a short 55 min drive ( no traffic of course ) lol

[Dark Star]

25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

When it snows big time in upstate and central NE it rarely snows big time at the coast. The low is too close to the coast hence pumping warm air in Sat night. The track is the bigger issue than the airmass imo. 

[Northof78]

Front end thump with 2-4"/3-6" probably across most of region. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Northof78 said:

Front end thump with 2-4"/3-6" probably across most of region. 

Rgem?

[vegan_edible]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem?

yeah cant tell what im looking at hahaha

[HVSnowLover]

12z RGEM about the same as past few runs. RGEM is usually a good predictor of the worst case scenario but also way closer to reality than the NAM/GFS. 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

National Blend of Models Output (0z and 12z cycles):

The 1/5 14z run decreased a little more to 0.5". It shows a minimum temperature of 36° during the precipitation. Any snow that falls in the NYC area will be low- to very low-ratio snow.

If it’s 36 with snow falling it probably wouldn’t accumulate at all. It would be hard enough at 33-34 unless it’s falling moderate to heavy. It being at night helps some but 36 is just white rain. People forget as well that the “10-1 snow map” just shows how much liquid falls as snow times 10. It doesn’t say anything about how much is on the ground. It could all be white rain, or 6-8:1 mashed potatoes. It’s why people should look at soundings vs the pretty maps. 

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, snywx said:

Trust me I know the feeling. Growing up in the BX in the 80s/90s I used to cringe when I frequently heard "NW of 287" lol.. Being a weather weenie like many of us are, moving up here to orange county in 2000 was the best! Doubled my snowfall average in a short 55 min drive ( no traffic of course ) lol

 

I remember a lot of this, and I remember the weather channel being stationed at the Tarrytown end of the Bridge.

 

Everything goes in cycles. I Think it’s important to add that we are running 3 to 5° above where we were in the 90s. This probably would’ve been a little snow event for New York City where now it’s raining.

Also want to throw out what somebody else was saying, this really isn’t that marginal of an airmass. Certainly better than anything we have had recently or will have over the next week.

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

When it snows big time in upstate and central NE it rarely snows big time at the coast. The low is too close to the coast hence pumping warm air in Sat night. The track is the bigger issue than the airmass imo. 

We had a huge snowstorm in NYC with the low hugging the coast a few years ago.