Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Brasiluvsnow]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam colder, rgem warmer. 

didn't Walt or Don say RGEM tends to overdo warm or am I making that up ?

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

didn't Walt or Don say RGEM tends to overdo warm or am I making that up ?

Walt said it 

[RU848789]

Remember, verbatim, the NAM is putting down 6-9" of snow in much of the region including the 95 corridor NE of about Trenton from about 6 pm Sat to 2 am Sunday in the initial thump, which translates to about 3/4-1" per hour rates and even if the surface temps are 33-34F (likely for 95), at that intensity melting will be minimal once the accumulation starts (as subsequent snow will be falling on 32F snow), so 10:1 is quite possible unless there is some significant melting going on in the column, which the model doesn't imply as soundings look to be below 32F for the whole column for this entire time even in places like Edison, NJ.  In fact, with good dendritic growth likely with good saturation levels due to excellent lift, we could even exceed 10:1, IMO, especially inland.  If the model is correct...

[Stormlover74]

If the gfs warms and the cmc follows the rgem then the nam is probably out to lunch

[ILoveWinter]

5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Most models have BL temps in mid 30's in NYC metro and Long Island. It's going to be difficult to get significant accums in those areas. Those 10:1 maps are bogus. 

Agree. After experiencing many winters in the City, BL temps just don't cut it here - unless there are strong dynamics / rates.

[kat5hurricane]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If the gfs warms and the cmc follows the rgem then the nam is probably out to lunch

The nam hasn't come back from lunch in many many years.

[Franklin0529]

Anyone see the gfs 

[vegan_edible]

GFS is looking pretty solid right now, trailing vort/shortwave deal holds

[wxman]

0z GFS looks good to me, better that 18z for most.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Just now, wxman said:

0z GFS looks good to me, better that 18z for most.

as far as location similar to the Nam it is just inside the benchmark very very close

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Notwithstanding the models showing us getting a decent event, I’m still skeptical about the BL temps. Still think 2” of slop is our ceiling. 

Temps are in the 40s for Long Island

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, wxman said:

0z GFS looks good to me, better that 18z for most.

Yeah got wetter and snowier on the fringes 

[wxman]

GFS Kuchera is 3 to 8 for most of the forum.  

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Temps are in the 40s for Long Island

Long Island is very long. 

[MJO812]

No accumulations for NYC but it's very close

 

[snywx]

0z GFS Kuchera 

[David-LI]

It's a good thing I didn't take down Christmas decorations yet. Should be a nice Sunday afternoon sipping on hot chocolate watching the snow fall outside. I hope it snows enough so the kids can build a snowman.

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No accumulations for NYC but it's very close

 

It basically flipped flopped with the rgem. 

[Wannabehippie]

Temps above freezing throughout the storm on latest NAM12k 0z run, starting at 15z Saturday. It won't let me post the image, as it is "too big".

[Franklin0529]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No accumulations for NYC but it's very close

 

Too tucked. U got the CMC?

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Too tucked. U got the CMC?

That is the cmc

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

That is the cmc

You're right my bad lol. Long day

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Temps above freezing throughout the storm on latest NAM12k 0z run, starting at 15z Saturday. It won't let me post the image, as it is "too big".

 

It's the coldest of the models right now

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

You're right my bad lol. Long day

It goes by like 3 different names

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

It goes by like 3 different names

Yes lol. Outrageous 

[MJO812]

Gefs is coming in slightly colder 

[mikeysed]

After GEFS is the Ukie up?

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

After GEFS is the Ukie up?

Yeah 25 minutes

[MJO812]

[Bxstormwatcher360]

The nam and gfs are def a tick cooler for coastal areas,if your in the northern parts of the city,westchester co and northern nj..your looking better per run.