Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Nam is nice

thats a good thing BUT still outta range no ?

 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is nice

It's the nam. Of course it does.. is the trailing shortwave stronger?

[RU848789]

NAM'd again...

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

After this post odds have increased I’m going to the north shore Saturday night 

My thought is I get 1-2”, outside shot at 3 if this CCB really happens. It’ll be better here than where you are, but if you really want to chase this I’d maybe head to the 495 corridor in MA. Take the ferry from Orient, really not that bad a ride. 

[BoulderWX]

NAM not messing around north if central/NNJ.  one run but not like be incredible if NAM scored a coup here 

[jm1220]

Just now, jm1220 said:

My thought is I get 1-2”, outside shot at 3 if this CCB really happens. It’ll be better here than where you are, but if you really want to chase this I’d maybe head to the 495 corridor in MA. Take the ferry from Orient, really not that bad a ride. 

Although @wdrag does give me hope there could be a surprise here. But definitely not banking on it. It could be easily the other direction-some slush to rain. 

[HVSnowLover]

Still likely overdone but more realistic than 18z

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010500&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

Actually it's still snowing at 57 so may be more to come.

[kingbaus]

Hopefully the backside delivers.

[Brasiluvsnow]

which model is up next ?

[wilsonvoid1]

which model is up next ?

Rgem 10PM, ICON 10pm GFS 1020 CMC 11 ukMet 12am euro 12:50am


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[vegan_edible]

NAM'D

[HVSnowLover]

The NAM is a 24 hour event. I really think it's overdone but we'll have to see.

[Brasiluvsnow]

I hope the NAM got few things correct including the location of the system = very close to the benchmark

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Although @wdrag does give me hope there could be a surprise here. But definitely not banking on it. It could be easily the other direction-some slush to rain. 

Notwithstanding the models showing us getting a decent event, I’m still skeptical about the BL temps. Still think 2” of slop is our ceiling. 

[jm1220]

Just now, psv88 said:

Notwithstanding the models showing us getting a decent event, I’m still skeptical about the BL temps. Still think 2” of slop is our ceiling. 

Yep we need the good rates to get us down to 32. 34-35 will just be white rain. 

[kingbaus]

What does the RGEM say?

[wilsonvoid1]

What does the RGEM say?

so far it's a colder run, i don't see it past 48 hours


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[HVSnowLover]

RGEM likely gonna be warm near the coast I think.

[HVSnowLover]

RGEM has the rain/snow line over the east river but shows mid 30s up to 287 so this would not cut it for the immediate metro area. 

[Stormlover74]

Nam colder, rgem warmer. 

[winterwx21]

RGEM pretty much nothing for our area. As usual a huge model battle still going on 48 hours before a storm. Hopefully we'll get a better idea tomorrow. 

[justinj]

I’m done looking I’ll see what happens when it happens. Looking like a nowcast

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

RGEM pretty much nothing for our area. As usual a huge model battle still going on 48 hours before a storm. Hopefully we'll get a better idea tomorrow. 

If last winter is any indication this is over for anyone SE of 95 and is not looking good for anyone SE of I287. The rgem/cmc combo was deadly last year but this a new season so we’ll see. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

RGEM pretty much nothing for our area. As usual a huge model battle still going on 48 hours before a storm. Hopefully we'll get a better idea tomorrow. 

And it's probably a 1 or 2 degree difference 

Neevermind it's more like 6 degrees warmer

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

so far it's a colder run, i don't see it past 48 hours


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Looks like garbage near/east of the city like the other runs. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

If last winter is any indication this is over for anyone SE of 95 and is not looking good for anyone SE of I287. The rgem/cmc combo was deadly last year but this a new season so we’ll see. 

They aren't perfect and tend to be on the warm side but I would take that combo over the Nam/GFS every time. 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

RGEM has the rain/snow line over the east river but shows mid 30s up to 287 so this would not cut it for the immediate metro area. 

If you’re over 33 in this storm you’re struggling to accumulate. If it’s really coming down hard it’ll wetbulb down to that temp unless like here there’s an easterly wind ruining it. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

They aren't perfect and tend to be on the warm side but I would take that combo over the Nam/GFS every time. 

It's up near 40 at 6z Sunday around the city. No other model has it that warm. Precip is also kinda weak

[vegan_edible]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

It's up near 40 at 6z Sunday around the city. No other model has it that warm. Precip is also kinda weak

yeah that warm bias is showing ngl

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

this model used to be good, now it's always too warm. you got almost a perfect benchmark miller A nor'easter, on beginning of January, it's going to be snow in my opinion. models always underestimate wet bulbing and dynamic cooling whe the low starts cranking! i think we get an overachiever


.

Most models have BL temps in mid 30's in NYC metro and Long Island. It's going to be difficult to get significant accums in those areas. Those 10:1 maps are bogus.