Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Allsnow]

 

[BoulderWX]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yep a nice snowfall for burbs.

Yup. Poconos and Catskills and Hudson Valley should see a nice 4-8 from this with areas up to 10-12” isolated. Just need to figure out what location to go to. 

[EastonSN+]

40 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nam is a crush job for the metro but it’s the nam so take it fwiw 

I think Forky had a claim that NAM always has at least one crush job run that is inevitably incorrect

 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Similar axis as all models but brutal cut off 

That is almost exactly what NWS is showing for the CT coast! 1 to 2 right along the immediate shore and 3 to 7 just inland even below the Merritt Parkway.

[snywx]

24 minutes ago, binbisso said:

8-12” is a good call up here 

[White Gorilla]

8 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Yup. Poconos and Catskills and Hudson Valley should see a nice 4-8 from this with areas up to 10-12” isolated. Just need to figure out what location to go to. 

Go to the Catskills.  They will jack 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

Go to the Catskills.  They will jack 

My buddy has a house in grand gorge in Delaware county and I just know it’s gonna puke snow there 

[snywx]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’ll simplify it further. I don’t think Rockland and Bergen see that much snow

I think north Rockland & north Bergen have a legit chance at warning criteria snow. 

[jm1220]

37 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Best nam run in three years 

Last year before the March event that hit the Berkshires/VT/NH it had a crazy 2-3 runs that dropped over 12” in NYC. So yeah-drunk, high, whatever you want to call it. 

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Last year before the March event that hit the Berkshires/VT/NH it had a crazy 2-3 runs that dropped over 12” in NYC. So yeah-drunk, high, whatever you want to call it. 

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

I think north Rockland & north Bergen have a legit chance at warning criteria snow. 

Up near Ramsey where I-287 merges into I-87 will probably be fine. That area where the elevation lowers and I-87 turns east into the Tappan Zee might be the area where you start seeing under warning snow amounts. 

[BxEngine]

Someone misread the initial post and threw an opinion into a misread post. All the posts about that entire idiotic discussion have been deleted. Move on guys.

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Up near Ramsey where I-287 merges into I-87 will probably be fine. That area where the elevation lowers and I-87 turns east into the Tappan Zee might be the area where you start seeing under warning snow amounts. 

the tappan will be the dividing line imo. sharp cut off from there and south. this is where o can see nyc getting 1-2” northern bronx 3-4” white plains 5-7” and nw of the hudson passed the bridge warning snows.

[SnowGoose69]

The one promise I will make...even if NYC does not get 1 inch from this they will get 1 inch by the end of the month

[vegan_edible]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

the tappan will be the dividing line imo. sharp cut off from there and south. this is where o can see nyc getting 1-2” northern bronx 3-4” white plains 5-7” and nw of the hudson passed the bridge warning snows.

id be stoked if we cash 5-7 in wp, i remember the late feb event last year we had like 5 inches while i think the city got diddly squat

[Islandersguy]

3 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

id be stoked if we cash 5-7 in wp, i remember the late feb event last year we had like 5 inches while i think the city got diddly squat

I would take that here too and run!

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The one promise I will make...even if NYC does not get 1 inch from this they will get 1 inch by the end of the month

Central Park will find a way to measure .9 

[Snowlover11]

4 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

id be stoked if we cash 5-7 in wp, i remember the late feb event last year we had like 5 inches while i think the city got diddly squat

will definitely be a difference from nyc to white plains, I see more 5” but it all depends on precipitation rates/intensity. see if models continue the trend with the 2nd half of this storm i can see it.

[vegan_edible]

3 minutes ago, Islandersguy said:

I would take that here too and run!

hello fellow wp head. you can probs catch me running around downtown with my camera this weekend lmao

[mikeysed]

Wow Mt Holly is out to lunch. This is their new map?!

 

[Islandersguy]

Just now, vegan_edible said:

hello fellow wp head. fingers crossed we cash out 

Honestly, I’m just happy to see flakes flying too! But still hoping for a nice cash out!

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

will definitely be a difference from nyc to white plains, I see more 5” but it all depends on precipitation rates/intensity. see if models continue the trend with the 2nd half of this storm i can see it.

 

DT has been saying he thinks EWR/TEB/HPN see big snows.  I do not really believe that as it stands now.  I felt maybe the NWS map in places like NE NJ and near interior parts of Fairfield/New Haven was overdone.  That said we have time still to change that idea.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, mikeysed said:

Wow Mt Holly is out to lunch. This is their new map?!

 

Does not line up with Upton too well.

[mikeysed]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Does not line up with Upton too well.

They lowered most areas yet the models increased moderately.

[RU848789]

Lots of NWS office inconsistency issues.  The NWS has issued winter storm watches for a general 4-8" of snow for the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, Sussex, Warren, Morris, Passaic and NW Bergen, plus the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee, but the discussions from the Philly and NYC offices are somewhat at odds, with the Philly office focusing on the warmth of the ocean and easterly winds keeping accumulations <1" for 95 from Philly to Woodbridge and SE of there, while the NYC office is saying things are trending cooler and now have 2-3" for places along 95 in NENJ (Union/Hudson) and NYC.

I think they're all scrambling, so it's not worth focusing on their discussions, but their maps with inconsistencies are worth discussing - just look at the boundaries along Morris/Somerset where the Philly office has <1", while magically across the border into Essex/Union, the NWS-NYC has 3-6" of snow. Also, the NWS-NYC map has 8-12" amounts for their northern counties, but the watches only mention 5-8" so I think they have some work to do to get their forecast straight.

 

[BoulderWX]

Gfs Pregame @ 45

[BoulderWX]

51 - low in proximity/heading towards OBX. Let’s see what next few frames bring 

 

[snywx]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Up near Ramsey where I-287 merges into I-87 will probably be fine. That area where the elevation lowers and I-87 turns east into the Tappan Zee might be the area where you start seeing under warning snow amounts. 

I think anyone aoa 500’ in Rockland has a shot. Areas along the Hudson like tappan, south Nyack are a legit snow hole. North of sloatsburg should be 6”+

[BoulderWX]

Looking relatively weak at 57, let see if we get an injection from the second row in later frames 

[justinj]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Lots of NWS office inconsistency issues.  The NWS has issued winter storm watches for a general 4-8" of snow for the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, Sussex, Warren, Morris, Passaic and NW Bergen, plus the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee, but the discussions from the Philly and NYC offices are somewhat at odds, with the Philly office focusing on the warmth of the ocean and easterly winds keeping accumulations <1" for 95 from Philly to Woodbridge and SE of there, while the NYC office is saying things are trending cooler and now have 2-3" for places along 95 in NENJ (Union/Hudson) and NYC.

I think they're all scrambling, so it's not worth focusing on their discussions, but their maps with inconsistencies are worth discussing - just look at the boundaries along Morris/Somerset where the Philly office has <1", while magically across the border into Essex/Union, the NWS-NYC has 3-6" of snow. Also, the NWS-NYC map has 8-12" amounts for their northern counties, but the watches only mention 5-8" so I think they have some work to do to get their forecast straight.

 

Crazy how close the rain snow line will be . 6-8 for Bridgeport less than an inch on LI