Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Best nam run in three years 

It's that second wave, first wave is dampening out. 

[mannynyc]

Obviously the Nam is out to lunch but the general trend of the powerful second wave is a great one. Hopefully this continues.

[David-LI]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

What is this even comparable to? I don't remember an event like that ever

You don't remember an event where NYC got more than 12-15 inches? 

[NJwx85]

Sunday is going to be a nowcasting event and has tremendous bust chances in both directions. Even if it worked out verbatim like the GFS/NAM show it’s still going to come down to exactly where and when the band pivots. We shall see if confidence increases the next two days. Still lots of time to go.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

You don't remember an event where NYC got more than 12-15 inches? 

I mean a few inches, a long break, then 6+. Dec 2003 only time I can think of that happening

[binbisso]

[BoulderWX]

6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

That second wave. It's becoming stronger a stronger dampening out the first wave. Something to watch like tip said yesterday in here. If it trends stronger city gets in on the goods 

This is hilarious and never will happen with marginal temps and all that but even half of this at 5:1 would be amazing for most. 
 

I think NWS is playing it smart with the WSW for morris county of 4-8: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ008&warncounty=NJC027&firewxzone=NJZ008&local_place1=Morristown NJ&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=40.7979&lon=-74.4782

[cleetussnow]

7 minutes ago, David-LI said:

You just got NAM'D!!

(Now seriously, this is not happening lol, go home NAM you're drunk)

We always knew it'd come.  

NAM'oliscious!

but leave it...like as in walking my dog past a McDonalds cheeseburger wrapper left on the ground......leave it...leave it...

[SnowGoose69]

Never ever trust the NAM past 48, especially in involved setups such as this.  In general the NAM is to be trusted when it shows virtually no run to run changes...see January 2016 or February 2010 when that thing did not budge one inch on its idea from 84 hours in.  Any time its moving all over its useless

[NJwx85]

One thing I can tell you about the 18z 3k NAM is that it indicates about a 6 hour period in NYC and surrounding areas of moderate to heavy snow Saturday night before any mixing issues. Even at 04z NYC is at 33 degrees but soundings show the column below freezing so it would still be snow. After 05z there’s a warm nose around 750mb which would cause sleet to mix in.

[Stormlover74]

Damn weenieing the nws

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Damn weenieing the nws

Huh?

[Stormlover74]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

Huh?

He weenie'd your post showing the nws snow forecast

[Franklin0529]

I don't trust the nam output, but you can't deny the trend with that trailing sw. Been showing up an getting stronger since yesterday. Tonight will be interesting to say the least 

[BoulderWX]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

He weenie'd your post showing the nws snow forecast

Weird flex but I don’t take it personally. They’re is a reason they have their degrees and were casual observers (most of us). But posting colorful maps gets more interest despite being wildly misleading. Everyone’s entitled to their own opinions, just not facts *shrug*

[SI Mailman]

Already looking forward to the 12z NAM weenie run on Thursday

I was off by 1 run


.

[BoulderWX]

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Weird flex but I don’t take it personally. They’re is a reason they have their degrees and were casual observers (most of us). But posting colorful maps gets more interest despite being wildly misleading. Everyone’s entitled to their own opinions, just not facts *shrug*

Also this FWIW…. Subject to change of course as new guidance rolls in.. 

[MJO812]

Rgem is also colder and further south and east.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Rgem is also colder and further south and east.

But nothing like the nam with part 2

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Rgem is also colder and further south and east.

[vegan_edible]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Damn weenieing the nws

this sent me

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

But nothing like the nam with part 2

Nope but a step in the right direction 

 

[mannynyc]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem is also colder and further south and east.

Yes but it's not a very significant change

[Nibor]

6 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Weird flex but I don’t take it personally. They’re is a reason they have their degrees and were casual observers (most of us). But posting colorful maps gets more interest despite being wildly misleading. Everyone’s entitled to their own opinions, just not facts *shrug*

wut…?

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem is also colder and further south and east.

Similar axis as all models but brutal cut off 

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

wut…?

No worries. It was another poster who seemed to dislike a post I made that was directly from the NWS. no biggie. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem is also colder and further south and east.

 

The RGEM generally is too amped and west at 72-84 9 out of 10 so I would expect it to come somewhat E-S on the next few runs.  It used to be over amped past 36-40 but its usually okay now up til 66-72.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

Similar axis as all models but brutal cut off 

Yep a nice snowfall for burbs.

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Never ever trust the NAM past 48, especially in involved setups such as this.  In general the NAM is to be trusted when it shows virtually no run to run changes...see January 2016 or February 2010 when that thing did not budge one inch on its idea from 84 hours in.  Any time its moving all over its useless

24-36 may be the max for set ups like this since they stopped updating the model after March 2017.

https://www.weather.gov/media/nws/Public_release_notes_NAM.v4.0.pdf

[vegan_edible]

RGEM is feeling that second shortwave, 18z gfs boutta have me looking at my comp like