Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed and been saying that. Those 10:1 maps are severely overdone. Very marginal airmass in the boundary layer, midlevel warm nose issues (globals are even picking up on that and they’re underdoing it as they always do at this range, look to the mesos on Saturday for those details), the almost certain final correction NW tomorrow…southern stream system, inevitable thunderstorm blow ups in the south pumping the SE ridge last minute, cyclone crashing into the west coast, take the under for this one. I see no reason to change my guess from last night….you are going to have to be 40+ miles NW of the city for this one

Locally I see this as a wet roads snow...few inches on the grass/roof/cartops, wet pavements

[Wannabehippie]

4 hours ago, mannynyc said:

I agree, mood flakes at the very best. Not enough energy left for those areas to see a heavy snow that might accumulate.

 

4 hours ago, David-LI said:

GFS with stronger system and more backend snow for city metro

 

Maybe aloft as snow, but the soundings at the mid, low level are too warm IMHO.

[NJwx85]

Winter storm watch for 5 to 8” for OBX area excluding NYC and LI.

[tristateweatherFB]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Winter storm watch for 5 to 8” for OBX area excluding NYC and LI.

Nw of 287

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, tristateweatherFB said:

Nw of 287

For the most part.

[Snowlover11]

nam a tick south?

[David-LI]

It's the NAM so take with a grain of salt. Coming in colder than 18z.  Precipitation arrives in the city by 4 pm Saturday then by 7pm everyone is snow.

3.5 inches of snow in nyc by saturday 11 pm. Unlikely, just what weenie snowmap is showing.

[tristateweatherFB]

[Allsnow]

Nam is a crush job for the metro but it’s the nam so take it fwiw 

[David-LI]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nam is a crush job for the metro but it’s the nam so take it fwiw 

I'm only at hour 69 and still no crush job, dryslotted then switch to rain after initial snow, do you have access to faster model runs?

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, David-LI said:

It's the NAM so take with a grain of salt. Coming in colder than 18z.  Precipitation arrives in the city by 4 pm Saturday then by 7pm everyone is snow.

3.5 inches of snow in nyc by saturday 11 pm. Unlikely, just what weenie snowmap is showing.

850s are barely -1 so it'll be close

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

I'm only at hour 69 and still no crush job, dryslotted then switch to rain after initial snow, do you have access to faster model runs?

6+ for parts of metro. Not close to what any other model is showing of course

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

NYC has only 2 events where they record 1 inch of rain and then 5 inches or more of snow...12/25/02 is one.  I cannot recall what the other is but Bastardi has posted it a few times, he uses it as an example that in general if you get significant rain the system better be undergoing a massive bombing or phase or it probably means significant snow after the changeover will be near impossible 

Thanks - yeah I can only remember the one.  NorthShoreWx who I would never doubt, responded "Pretty sure the south shore did that in February 2013.  And late February 2010.  May have happened in February 2015 too.  Probably others."  Maybe I overstated the case, and it's just that no 'memorable' snow has followed a moderate rain other than that 2002 one that I remember.  Your 5" threshold would be a good definition of 'memorable.'

[binbisso]

The nam blows Up the second short wave.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

6+ for parts of metro. Not close to what any other model is showing of course

No over, Sunday afternoon the CCB hits nyc 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Allsnow said:

No over, Sunday afternoon the CCB hits nyc 

Ahh didn't get that far

[binbisso]

What a turn of events this afternoon.

[Snowlover11]

wtf nam

[David-LI]

You just got NAM'D!!

(Now seriously, this is not happening lol, go home NAM you're drunk)

[RU848789]

NAMed!  Most of this falls in part 2 on Sunday afternoon...

[Newman]

That's a proper NAM'ing for NYC right there on the 2nd vort CCB 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, binbisso said:

The nam blows Up the second short wave.

Keeps the trend going! I wouldn't throw in the towel quite yet

[Allsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Ahh didn't get that far

12-16 for nyc haha 

[Allsnow]

Best nam run in three years 

[binbisso]

What a forecasting nightmare.

[Allsnow]

3k nam is 4-8 for the metro 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

NAMed!  Most of this falls in part 2 on Sunday afternoon...

That second wave. It's becoming stronger an stronger dampening out the first wave. Something to watch like tip said yesterday in here. If it trends stronger city gets in on the goods 

[ILoveWinter]

Good trends today - especially for those north and west but within the City itself, borderline temps will not cut it for anything but wet roads and some slushy accumulation on grass. Hopefully the trend continues. 

Taking this NAM run with a grain of salt though it's definitely pretty to look at!

[Allsnow]

The nams are nice to look at but let’s be honest they have no credibility at this range 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

12-16 for nyc haha 

What is this even comparable to? I don't remember an event like that ever