Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[NittanyWx]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Numerical numbers show DPs around 32...its really close...as currently shown I think NYC is 34/32 in there and maybe it accumulates verbatim if its coming down crazy hard but current thermals to me fall short unless this thing can further phase/bomb earlier...no doubt the fact it will be overnight would help, even in January

2m is a hindrance and still have to contend with the warm nose around 800.

[David-LI]

Hoping we get NAM'D soon!

[BoulderWX]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

snow maps are useless junk. look under the hood

Completely agree. People posting 10:1 verbatim when many locales will be half of that. And compacting. Just not realistic. I’d cut 10:1 in half if you’re within 50 miles of the coast. 8:1 seems reasonable well north and west IMO

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Somebody will correct me if I'm wrong, but the only time in the past 40 years that LI has ever gone from at least moderate rain to snow that accumulated more than say, 3 inches, was on December 25, 2002 (which featured a lot more than that.)  That's it, at least in the last 40 years in SE Nassau.

 

NYC has only 2 events where they record 1 inch of rain and then 5 inches or more of snow...12/25/02 is one.  I cannot recall what the other is but Bastardi has posted it a few times, he uses it as an example that in general if you get significant rain the system better be undergoing a massive bombing or phase or it probably means significant snow after the changeover will be near impossible 

[Allsnow]

EPS  colder to start and end 

[Allsnow]

Control. Definitely some agreement with the hang back feature but temps will be a issue 

[winterwx21]

27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This storm seems to have everything going against it for any real accumulation at the coast. If we manage anything it will be a miracle

For our area slightly away from the coast, I'll be very happy if we can squeeze out 2 to 3 slushy inches on colder surfaces. We have a ways to go before we can be confident that even that is gonna happen though. At least the Euro got me a little more optimistic. 

[Allsnow]

Eps

 

[mannynyc]

Definitely like this trend from the EPS
0z

12z

[mannynyc]

EPS members

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

For our area slightly away from the coast, I'll be very happy if we can squeeze out 2 to 3 slushy inches on colder surfaces. We have a ways to go before we can be confident that even that is gonna happen though. At least the Euro got me a little more optimistic. 

sad state  of affairs when we have to hope for a couple slushly inches that will be vaporized the next day in early January lol

[NJwx85]

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1742975148087730376?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

[WestBabylonWeather]

If it wasn’t north and wests job, I’d be posting the “just when I thought I was out” gif 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

For our area slightly away from the coast, I'll be very happy if we can squeeze out 2 to 3 slushy inches on colder surfaces. We have a ways to go before we can be confident that even that is gonna happen though. At least the Euro got me a little more optimistic. 

I was then i wasnt then I was then I wasn't ..now I am cautiously optimistic 

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

sad state  of affairs when we have to hope for a couple slushly inches that will be vaporized the next day in early January lol

Very true lol. After how bad last winter was, a couple slushy inches would seem like a good event. 

[SnowGoose69]

34 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Hoping we get NAM'D soon!

We probably do but I wouldn’t trust anything the NAM shows til probbaly tomorrow afternoon or evening  

[EastonSN+]

Nice snow shower passing through!

[psv88]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I doubt I get more than an inch or two since these CCB are often over modeled and we have to deal with the same lousy E flow coming into the storm. You want to see a closed 500 low southeast of you to know you’re in the game for one. But I’ll be thrilled to get a surprise. 

I think a reasonable call for us is 2” of slop. South shore may not see any accumulation at all. 

[RU848789]

Fascinating that every model has 6+ inches for Boston and the NWS has a forecast for 1".  I understand models are not everything, but that seems a bit out of whack to me...

[David-LI]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Nice snow shower passing through!

Snow shower? Are you in Buffalo or something?

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Fascinating that every model has 6+ inches for Boston and the NWS has a forecast for 1".  I understand models are not everything, but that seems a bit out of whack to me...

They're expecting the E winds to torch them the same as down here. Waters are a few degrees colder there so not as big an impact but something similar happened in the 2/1/21 storm. I'm sure Waltham only a few miles west of the city will be fine though.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Snow shower? Are you in Buffalo or something?

There’s a weakening line of flurries passing Southeast over the NY/CT border.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Snow shower? Are you in Buffalo or something?

Lol coastal CT

[WestBabylonWeather]

I’m in Farmingdale now. Looking north looks real dark 

[Brian5671]

snow squall here-impressive too

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

They're expecting the E winds to torch them the same as down here. Waters are a few degrees colder there so not as big an impact but something similar happened in the 2/1/21 storm. I'm sure Waltham only a few miles west of the city will be fine though.

Yeah this is an event where Fenway gets 9 and Logan gets 2.  Normally by now ocean is cold enough that even screaming east flow won’t matter but SSTs are warmer this year 

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah this is an event where Fenway gets 9 and Logan gets 2.  Normally by now ocean is cold enough that even screaming east flow won’t matter but SSTs are warmer this year 

SSTs being warmer may help with stronger winter storms if the pattern is better in February, no?

[pstar3182]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

They're expecting the E winds to torch them the same as down here. Waters are a few degrees colder there so not as big an impact but something similar happened in the 2/1/21 storm. I'm sure Waltham only a few miles west of the city will be fine though.

Fished a wreck not too far off Long Beach yesterday, water was reading 50 degrees in 100 feet of water. Members forget how much the ocean influences outcomes. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

SSTs being warmer may help with stronger winter storms if the pattern is better in February, no?

It always helps now.  This is why storms of 12 plus since 2000-2002 have become commonplace. Crazy pwat values and just bombing storms which I blame fully on warmer Atlantic SSTs.  This is why I still think something big can happen for the metro here.  If there is potential for faster phase/intensity these days it tends to find a way to happen  

[snowman19]

Completely agree. People posting 10:1 verbatim when many locales will be half of that. And compacting. Just not realistic. I’d cut 10:1 in half if you’re within 50 miles of the coast. 8:1 seems reasonable well north and west IMO

Agreed and been saying that. Those 10:1 maps are severely overdone. Very marginal airmass in the boundary layer, midlevel warm nose issues (globals are even picking up on that and they’re underdoing it as they always do at this range, look to the mesos on Saturday for those details), the almost certain final correction NW tomorrow…southern stream system, inevitable thunderstorm blow ups in the south pumping the SE ridge last minute, cyclone crashing into the west coast, take the under for this one. I see no reason to change my guess from last night….you are going to have to be 40+ miles NW of the city for this one