Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Volcanic Winter]

GFS output gets 4'' down to even me, that's a discard for now. I guess optimistically it's nice to still see some favorable wobbles, but yeah.

[winterwx21]

Good luck getting back end snow to work out for our area. CMC looks nothing like that and gives NYC no snow accumulation. 

[binbisso]

The other thing to watch as some in the New England forum have said Is to watch that trailing short wave. If it can catch the lead short wave below us as the GFS shows It could be fun here Sunday.

[Allsnow]

We pray for the gfs 

[David-LI]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Good luck getting back end snow to work out for our area. CMC looks nothing like that and gives NYC no snow accumulation. 

Enlighten us why CMC is right and GFS wrong?

[RU848789]

zoomed in - such steep gradients make for easy forecasts, lol...

[Northof78]

RGEM (always one of warmest models) giving good snow to many should be the sign...we are in early January with decent cold/dry/fresh air injected in 1-2 days prior to storm with a good track...we will snow. 

[vegan_edible]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Good luck getting back end snow to work out for our area. CMC looks nothing like that and gives NYC no snow accumulation. 

cmc also has flipped and flopped like no other where as the gfs has held strong with the trailing vort. lets keep expectations in check but not toss all scenarios out the window

[the_other_guy]

Forget backend snows. That doesn’t work in NYC or coastal plain. If you’re going there, it’s already over.

 

Look at the front end. look at where this thing starts to turn. Im feeling bullish just inland.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, vegan_edible said:

cmc also has flipped and flopped like no other where as the gfs has held strong with the trailing vort. lets keep expectations in check but not toss all scenarios out the window

Still some changes ahead 

[NittanyWx]

Very, very interesting dynamics on this run for Sunday mid-day for those merritt/287 north

 

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

Forget backend snows. That doesn’t work in NYC or coastal plain. If you’re going there, it’s already over.

 

Look at the front end. look at where this thing starts to turn. Im feeling bullish just inland.

Yes, NYC never saw a storm start as pouring rain and warm then switch to snow in the end. /s

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Still some changes ahead 

are you playing reverse psychology with your updated profile pic?

[brooklynwx99]

definitely a trend to phase the kicker in earlier, leading to a much better PVA axis overhead. i'm inclined to believe the GFS is wrong, but this is worth watching

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Yes, NYC never saw a storm start as pouring rain and warm then switch to snow in the end. /s

I think the last one I could remember was Christmas day like in the early 2000s

 

It is very rare

there was a much smaller version of that in the late 90s as well. I’m gonna say 1998.

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

I think the last one I could remember was Christmas day like in the early 2000s

 

It is very rare

February 2013. rain and drizzle for hours before the big show

[jbenedet]

H7 and H5 goes over SNE and closes off there. The surface reflection could easily end up further north/west, collocated with the H5 occlusion on that merit alone.

The other aspect to further north/west track risk is the trailing shortwave is now the key player, and it is getting deeper with each run; while dampening the lead wave. The lead wave is now almost fully dissipated. 

Main takeaway is the evolution of this storm has changed significantly in just a day of runs; there's a lot more uncertainty (than usual) at day 3 as a result. Stronger system and tucked in is now much more likely than weak and southeast. Also with regards to timing - seems ~12 hours later as a result of the trailing shortwave being the primary feature. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Very, very interesting dynamics on this run for Sunday mid-day for those merritt/287 north

 

Yeah, GFS taken verbatim the CT coast never flips to mix, albeit an above freezing snowfall with low ratios.

[winterwx21]

8 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

cmc also has flipped and flopped like no other where as the gfs has held strong with the trailing vort. lets keep expectations in check but not toss all scenarios out the window

I don't toss the GFS scenario out the window. I just said good luck, because I think it's only a slight chance of that happening. Back end snows very rarely work out for our area, and GFS isn't the model I want on my side. The other models don't save the coast with back end snow. I think the GFS will cave, but we'll hope and keep an eye on the situation. Right now I think it's more realistic to think that my area could get a slushy inch or two on the front end. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

I don't toss the GFS scenario out the window. I just said good luck, because I think it's only a slight chance of that happening. Back end snows very rarely work out for our area, and GFS isn't the model I want on my side. The other models don't save the coast with back end snow. I think the GFS will cave, but we'll hope and keep an eye on the situation. Right now I think it's more realistic to think that my area could get a slushy inch or two on the front end. 

Remember a few days ago this looked like a cold storm. Now it's going to be like 36 at the height after a high in the low 40s

[mannynyc]

GEFS

[Yanksfan]

1 minute ago, mannynyc said:

GEFS

A good number of big hitters in there. Looks colder too.

[MJO812]

Gefs south of 6z 

[ForestHillWx]

The ensembles haven’t moved much for my area; arguably they have increased chances for significant snows.

MMU and points north/west should be in the game. 

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Forget backend snows. That doesn’t work in NYC or coastal plain. If you’re going there, it’s already over.

 

Look at the front end. look at where this thing starts to turn. Im feeling bullish just inland.

Backend snow with a CCB would happen if the 500mb low closes off SE of us, which transports moisture around west of the low. Without it it’s likely progressive and wouldn’t amount to much. GFS looks nice but I’d believe that when I see it. 

[Newman]

Verbatim on the GFS, the Pats game at 1 and Giants game at 4:30 would be fun on Sunday

[winterwx21]

UKMET still too warm. Nothing at all for NYC. Maybe a slushy coating for my area, but a nice storm for NW New Jersey. 

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Backend snow with a CCB would happen if the 500mb low closes off SE of us, which transports moisture around west of the low. Without it it’s likely progressive and wouldn’t amount to much. GFS looks nice but I’d believe that when I see it. 

its on crack imo

[weatherpruf]

40 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Yes, NYC never saw a storm start as pouring rain and warm then switch to snow in the end. /s

Dec 92, but that was a monster and also, it was only white rain at the switch. Flooding was the story there, along with me being stuck with a classroom full of 7th graders with no power because the school district, unlike all the others in the state, decided it was safer to keep them there all day....

[donsutherland1]