Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[psv88]

14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The news is right. It is gonna be a big snowstorm for a region that hasnt had much snow in a long time.

It’s just gonna rain on Long Island and New York City.

CNJ, Metro NJ and CT coast are getting rain as well. 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I will watch it especially the trailing vort .

Interesting evolution with this event as shown on the 12z NAM.  Front end thump Saturday afternoon into the evening for areas to the north and west and then most areas that had snow go to light rain/ice and sleet.  Most areas including the coast go back to snow later Sunday as the trailing vort max comes in.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I mean, don't forget how insanely crowded NJ -> NYC / HV / LI -> SW CT is. Any plowable snowstorm is a big deal which requires the activation of a lot of resources to keep the area functioning. Of course we're used to snow up here unlike the south or something, but this region is still enormously overcrowded which makes any snowfall a bigger deal than it would be in a less populated area. The broader DC to BOS corridor is just stupidly dense with people.

I don't think we are used to snow up here; two years without much in an area that sees a lot of flux in population is a guarantee that when snow hits, there will be a lot of folks taken by surprise. The upside is we probably won't have to worry about that from the city on south, not this weekend and likely not the rest of the winter, though that would be optimistic ( in the eyes of normal people at least ).

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Interesting evolution with this event as shown on the 12z NAM.  Front end thump Saturday afternoon into the evening for areas to the north and west and then most areas that had snow go to light rain/ice and sleet.  Most areas including the coast go back to snow later Sunday as the trailing vort max comes in.

I'll go on record that the coast probably won't go back to snow. At least nothing that will be of significance. Note, that's assuming it even starts as snow....

[psv88]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

I'll go on record that the coast probably won't go back to snow. At least nothing that will be of significance. Note, that's assuming it even starts as snow....

Agreed. 

[EastonSN+]

Borrowed again.

[hudsonvalley21]

12z NAM has bumped up QPF totals around the NYC area vs. the 06 runs.

 

[North and West]

Borrowed again.

Looks like some accumulating snow for the backwoods people who live on the 287 frontier.

Hopefully I can go into town for some provisions prior to this occurring.


.

[the_other_guy]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

CNJ, Metro NJ and CT coast are getting rain as well. 

For now

 

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Looks like some accumulating snow for the backwoods people who live on the 287 frontier.


.

Yeh. Hillbillies that pay high property taxes dont count

[Big Jims Videos]

Pocono Plateau, West Penn Township, Lake Harmony, etc will do nice in this - maybe folks can get a day of skiing in Sunday. 

[NittanyWx]

Copying from SNE:  

Starting to see that warm nose show up between 750-850 which was a risk as noted last week for the coast.  That warm nose less of a factor as you get away from the coastal plain, and the wraparound (even with marginal air) band can overcome that in the column further north and west.

 

As discussed, the track certainly matters, but so too does the two vort interaction, closing off of the upper level low among several other factors.  0Z/12Z today have shown there a mix risk honestly as far north as Hartford and extending into SNE with that SE fetch aloft.

 

I think the NAM at this stage is a bit of a warm outlier for now, but not unreasonable risk.

 

 

[Allsnow]

At the very least this has been something to track for the nyc crew. We were largely voided of that last winter. It looks very active going forward so I remain confident that something works out even with the world On Fire to some posters 

[vegan_edible]

8 minutes ago, North and West said:

Looks like some accumulating snow for the backwoods people who live on the 287 frontier.

Hopefully I can go into town for some provisions prior to this occurring.


.

its a long and treacherous journey to wegmans 

[North and West]

its a long and treacherous journey to wegmans 

My Very Dear Wife:

Indications are very strong that a great gale shall move in a few days, perhaps to-morrow. Lest I should not be able to write you again, I feel impelled to write a few lines, that may fall under your eye when I shall be no more.

Our movement may be one of a few days prior as we encamp towards the commerce of Wegmans, so that I may provide our family with provisions of milk from thy cows and bread.

If one has a surplus of eggs, you may conjure the toast of the Gauls.


.

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

My Very Dear Wife:

Indications are very strong that a great gale shall move in a few days, perhaps to-morrow. Lest I should not be able to write you again, I feel impelled to write a few lines, that may fall under your eye when I shall be no more.

Our movement may be one of a few days prior as we encamp towards the commerce of Wegmans, so that I may provide our family with provisions of milk from thy cows and bread.

If one has a surplus of eggs, you may conjure the toast of the Gauls.


.

 

[rclab]

56 minutes ago, nightknights said:

Because they are too busy announcing a massive snowstorm for the weekend that was never going to be a massive snow storm.  Massive is 2FT +  not 6-8" 

 

35 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

So no specific examples of articles from tv stations that actually overhyped this event. 

Good morning nk, BJV. The excitement, at least for NYC metro, was the possibility of ending the time length of the CPK -1 inch snow accumulation record. The words used, such as in the photo below did not match the textual content of the piece. Probability is necessary word usage even if, to folks like myself, it is a comfort word. Stay well, as always …

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

25 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Agreed. 

Somebody will correct me if I'm wrong, but the only time in the past 40 years that LI has ever gone from at least moderate rain to snow that accumulated more than say, 3 inches, was on December 25, 2002 (which featured a lot more than that.)  That's it, at least in the last 40 years in SE Nassau.

[NorthShoreWx]

53 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Somebody will correct me if I'm wrong, but the only time in the past 40 years that LI has ever gone from at least moderate rain to snow that accumulated more than say, 3 inches, was on December 25, 2002 (which featured a lot more than that.)  That's it, at least in the last 40 years in SE Nassau.

Pretty sure the south shore did that in February 2013.  And late February 2010.  May have happened in February 2015 too.  Probably others.

 

 

I just went on a drive north to find the rain snow line. Its at the northern state. 3 inches and white out in brookville rain here in wantagh!! 
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/39242-february-8th-9th-snowstormblizzard-event-observations/?do=findComment&comment=2096691

[binbisso]

The rgem has very heavy precip right over nyc and adjacent nj early on. Model shows snow. I believe we will need heavy rates and wet bulb to snow there. Clown map just for fun. 

[Wannabehippie]

51 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Interesting evolution with this event as shown on the 12z NAM.  Front end thump Saturday afternoon into the evening for areas to the north and west and then most areas that had snow go to light rain/ice and sleet.  Most areas including the coast go back to snow later Sunday as the trailing vort max comes in.

Might be too late by then to get any real accumulation, unless it can come down real hard and fast in 2-3 hours.

[mannynyc]

51 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I'll go on record that the coast probably won't go back to snow. At least nothing that will be of significance. Note, that's assuming it even starts as snow....

I agree, mood flakes at the very best. Not enough energy left for those areas to see a heavy snow that might accumulate.

[binbisso]

The trend so far on today's 12Z guidance Is the lead short wave is further East. We need that as Far East as possible before it turns the corner up the coast.

 That should allow for a more northeasterly component to the wind and help lock in whatever cold air we have. 

[MJO812]

Um gfs

[Northof78]

Everything still looks good and on track with an increasingly strong storm for 3-6"+ N of 78 and W of GSP, borderline 1-3"/2-4" near NYC, and then sloppy 1" or so W LI N NJ Coast...looks like a really nice storm for many (not all) in the forum. 

[mannynyc]

GFS strengthens way west compared to 6z and that allows some banding to reach the city. Interesting 

[binbisso]

Gfs gone bonkers

[binbisso]

[vegan_edible]

gfs clown college but i'll take this. im building a mf snowman

[David-LI]

GFS with stronger system and more backend snow for city metro

 

[MJO812]

Just need the low to go a little more south with colder air. So close.