Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Most don't tune into TV newscasts anymore-like you said it's all social media clickbait and hype..

That is so true.

[EastonSN+]

Borrowed from the NE forum (I am technically coastal CT).

Not New York but you see some of LI and Hudson river.

10 to 1 so you know the drill about lower ratios.

[qg_omega]

This looks fine for a first call

[hudsonvalley21]

9 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

The sad thing about this is the fact tv stations who have not been overly hyping this, rather holding fort with the "stay tuned as the situation unfolds and we learn more information" messaging is lost by the fact that social media is plastered with the snowiest model runs starting last weekend by the fakes.  Folks will once again say "where's my snow" without ever even listening to the on air mets, and instead say they were wrong again. 

I know they are all focused on the first event and in this thread also. But another issue is the total QPF forecasted for the next week is concerning for the flooding potential from both events. They haven’t really touched base on that on the tv stations. 
 

[the_other_guy]

11 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I know they are all focused on the first event and in this thread also. But another issue is the total QPF forecasted for the next week is concerning for the flooding potential from both events. They haven’t really touched base on that on the tv stations. 
 

Why would they talk about next week when we have a board of experts and enthusiasts that cant really tell us what will happen 2 days from now. We have already established that models are pretty variable outside 72 hours.

 

Next week may not happen at all. Certainly no way to tell if we have threatening floods until we are 2-3 days out, right? No reason for unwarranted hysteria.

 

This board would do well with that advice too

[Big Jims Videos]

17 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I know they are all focused on the first event and in this thread also. But another issue is the total QPF forecasted for the next week is concerning for the flooding potential from both events. They haven’t really touched base on that on the tv stations. 
 

We are very aware behind the scenes but as one poster said one event at a time for on air purposes.  I've been more concerned about next week than Saturday/Sunday tbh.  

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, the guidance began to consolidate toward a scenario where snowfall is limited in the New York City area with appreciable amounts (4"+) occurring only well north and west of the City.

• The 1/4 6z GFS soundings were brutal. A meaningful share of the precipitation e.g., between 72 hours-75 hours would fall as rain.
• The 1/4 12z NBE's estimated snowfall for the City was 1.4" at Central Park, 1.1" at LaGuardia Airport, and 0.6" at JFK Airport.
• Temperatures are currently forecast to remain above freezing throughout the storm in New York City leading to very low ratios. Historic data for January 1-15, 1869-2023 with low temperatures above freezing highlighted the issue of low ratios. With some of the guidance now showing a low of 35° or above, a wider look at all cases revealed that just 26% of such cases saw 1" or more snowfall while 74% saw less than 1" of snow (Mean: 0.8"; Median: 0.5"). The mean figure was skewed by April 9, 1907 (5.0") and November 9, 1892 (2.3") snowfalls. In both cases the snow fell very heavily over a short period of time. Such dynamics are not likely this time around.

With the strong short wave digging into the Southwest, this kind of solution was a danger. There was more downside risk than upside risk. Unfortunately, even at this point in time, there still remains somewhat more downside risk than upside risk, namely that the 1" of slushy snow to perhaps 3", if everything went well, could evolve into a coating to an inch-type scenario.

The low ratios (high confidence assumption given the consistently forecast temperatures) rendered 10:1 snowfall maps irrelevant. That included individual ensemble maps based on 10:1 ratios. In both cases, the operational and ensemble maps overstated what was likely. For an illustrative example, maps assessing the probability of 4" or more snowfall were actually assessing the probability of 2" or more snow in and around NYC and along the coastal plain, because their 10:1 ratios were not realistic.

As a result of the overnight guidance, the probability that New York City's streak without 1" or more daily snowfall, which will reach 690 days today, will continue has increased. However, even as the New York City area will have to wait for another storm for the opportunity for a moderate or significant snowfall, it should be noted that 75% of seasonal snowfall during strong El Niño winters falls after January 15th and around 50% falls on or after February 1st. Therefore, it is likely that there will be additional opportunities as the current winter progresses deeper into January and then beyond.

 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

I’m quite displeased with essentially being the rain snow line. Is what it is. Hopefully end of month or feb delivers something. 

[MJO812]

Gefs still has many members with decent solutions. Eps is still all over also.

Miracle ?

[kat5hurricane]

55 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Rule of thumb-you want the storm S and E 4-5 days out-the fact that this was in the sweet spot a few days ago was a red flag.   Almost always bumps N and W right up to go time.

I said this like 3-4 days ago. Never underestimate the SE Ridge. Most of the great storms of the past, for the coast especially, were suppressed initially and bumped N the few days before. Add in that this is a marginal setup and it was a longshot for anybody near the coast. 

[nycsnow]

Models showing a decent wind event with gust 50+ possible next week 9th and 10th

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I said this like 3-4 days ago. Never underestimate the SE Ridge. Most of the great storms of the past, for the coast especially, were suppressed initially and bumped N the few days before. Add in that this is a marginal setup and it was a longshot for anybody near the coast. 

Remember 2016 ? Congrats DC until 2 days before.

[MJO812]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Models showing a decent wind event with gust 50+ possible next week 9th and 10th

Change your name to NYCwind.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Maybe I am just naive and not as knowledgeable as many of you but with 2 and a half days left so much is still undecided and on the table especially N n W . We can't live and die with each model run and I can only imagine what some of you will be posting if the guidance is more favorable for a snow later on today or tomorrow. "You have to be able to smell the rain in order to get the larger snow amounts " speaking of which has anyone seen what Bernie tweeted an hour ago 

[psv88]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs still has many members with decent solutions. Eps is still all over also.

Miracle ?

Stop

[MJO812]

Just now, psv88 said:

Stop

I will watch it especially the trailing vort .

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I will watch it especially the trailing vort .

You said yesterday the coast is toast. Let it go man. 

[kat5hurricane]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Remember 2016 ? Congrats DC until 2 days before.

I think you were really young at the time but the Jan. 1996 Blizzard was mostly a Mid Atlantic storm until literally the day before then made that 50-75 mile north bump that got everybody in the game. Boxing Day looked dead in the water only a few days before then bumped north and so many more. 

[EastonSN+]

34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For the clown lovers and queens among us.

 

25th

 

50th

 

75th  

 

Mean

Again borrowed from the NE forum.

Enjoy

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I think you were really young at the time but the Jan. 1996 Blizzard was mostly a Mid Atlantic storm until literally the day before then made that 50-75 mile north bump that got everybody in the game. Boxing Day looked dead in the water only a few days before then bumped north and so many more. 

I was 8 years old in 1996. I vaguely remember that storm but of course I remember 2010. The model swings for that storm were amazing.

 

The models actually had that storm a week out hitting the area then lost it then came back on Christmas Eve.

[MJO812]

On 1/1/2024 at 2:17 AM, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Don't agree. Risk is either suppression or rain. We are in a phase where most of the models will trend south and east. We most likely will be in a trending north/west trend again as the event nears. It all depends on how far these trends go in each phase.

WX/PT

Good post 

[nightknights]

1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I know they are all focused on the first event and in this thread also. But another issue is the total QPF forecasted for the next week is concerning for the flooding potential from both events. They haven’t really touched base on that on the tv stations. 
 

Because they are too busy announcing a massive snowstorm for the weekend that was never going to be a massive snow storm.  Massive is 2FT +  not 6-8" 

[nightknights]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I was 8 years old in 1996. I vaguely remember that storm but of course I remember 2010. The model swings for that storm were amazing.

 

The models actually had that storm a week out hitting the area then lost it then came back on Christmas Eve.

Plowed that 96 storm stalled out and just never stopped snowing.  I had to blast thru some parking lots with 6FT if snow.  My truck got stuck plenty.  Plowed 14hrs took a 2 hr break and plowed another 24 straight.  That stormed plowed for a week. Picked up some new accounts that week lots of plows broke down or they couldnt get to.  Sold my truck after that yr never to plow again.  Blood Money

[Big Jims Videos]

8 minutes ago, nightknights said:

Because they are too busy announcing a massive snowstorm for the weekend that was never going to be a massive snow storm.  Massive is 2FT +  not 6-8" 

can you show me what station did this around here?

[nightknights]

6 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

can you show me what station did this around here?

Early on and lots of internet announcing massive snowstorm. 

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, nightknights said:

Early on and lots of internet announcing massive snowstorm. 

The news is right. It is gonna be a big snowstorm for a region that hasnt had much snow in a long time.

It’s just gonna rain on Long Island and New York City.

[Big Jims Videos]

2 minutes ago, nightknights said:

Early on and lots of internet announcing massive snowstorm. 

So no specific examples of articles from tv stations that actually overhyped this event. 

[Allsnow]

Early for the nams but both very thumpy to start 

[Volcanic Winter]

I mean, don't forget how insanely crowded NJ -> NYC / HV / LI -> SW CT is. Any plowable snowstorm is a big deal which requires the activation of a lot of resources to keep the area functioning. Of course we're used to snow up here unlike the south or something, but this region is still enormously overcrowded which makes any snowfall a bigger deal than it would be in a less populated area. The broader DC to BOS corridor is just stupidly dense with people.

So I agree that sometimes the media really overhypes or bites too early on potential snow events, but they also genuinely are a very big deal in this area (especially once we're talking significant snowfall, 6+ inches, which was at least semi-plausible going back a couple days).

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Why would they talk about next week when we have a board of experts and enthusiasts that cant really tell us what will happen 2 days from now. We have already established that models are pretty variable outside 72 hours.

 

Next week may not happen at all. Certainly no way to tell if we have threatening floods until we are 2-3 days out, right? No reason for unwarranted hysteria.

 

This board would do well with that advice too

We’ll see how it evolves. If it is looking like a major event then they will be mentioning it Saturday night and Sunday during the first event right?