Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[MJO812]

[RU848789]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Kuchera takes all of that into account. 

 No it does not.  It only takes into account the max air temp in the column and does a crude subtraction from a 10:1 ratio based on that.  I've posted deeply and extensively on Kuchera.  It does not address snow crystal formation/habit, aggregation while falling due to partial melting, intensity or the degree of melting at the surface due to ground temps or solar insolation, all of which can be important.  

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Need it east 75-100 miles

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Need it east 75-100 miles

Not a bad run. It now shows the deformation band.

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Not a bad run. It now shows the deformation band.

Nah not too bad. Just seen the individuals. Some nice hits in there 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Not a bad run. It now shows the deformation band.

Do u got cmc panel at hr 78-84?

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS has been steadily trending towards the kicker phasing with the trough as it moves out. it now has potent PVA and a legit deform signal for LI. would need to monitor this in future runs and on other guidance

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS has been steadily trending towards the kicker phasing with the trough as it moves out. it now has potent PVA and a legit deform signal for LI. would need to monitor this in future runs and on other guidance

Yup. Few hrs quicker with with kicker an it's a good storm all the way to the coast 

[mannynyc]

GEFS

[mikeysed]

8 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

GEFS

Snow map of GEFS avail to post?

[Brasiluvsnow]

Anyone besides me waiting on the Euro ?

[vegan_edible]

5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Anyone besides me waiting on the Euro ?

me. insomnia induced euro watching

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, vegan_edible said:

me. insomnia induced euro watching

So I'm not the Last Mohican,,,,,,,,show time here we go

[Snowlover11]

8 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Anyone besides me waiting on the Euro ?

im up, currently at work. honestly hope the euro delivers!

[RU848789]

Looking very similar to the 18Z euro...maybe a touch warmer/wetter; below is 18Z and 0Z Euro runs through 12Z Sunday for comparison.  

[brooklynwx99]

again, you want to be N of 78 and along or west of 287 to have a good shot at plowable snowfall from this. set expectations to zero near the city

[snowman19]

Becoming more confident that this is going to be an I-84 north event. Expect further corrections NW on tomorrow’s guidance. IMO there will be little if any snow with this until you get 40+ miles northwest of the city. The airmass is marginal as all heck. Also think there is going to be major midlevel warm nose issues in the metro area….watch the mesos in the last 24 hours, some areas may not even see snow and start as sleet. 10:1 snow maps are going to be laughably inaccurate 

[justinj]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

again, you want to be N of 78 and along or west of 287 to have a good shot at plowable snowfall from this. set expectations to zero near the 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

again, you want to be N of 78 and along or west of 287 to have a good shot at plowable snowfall from this. set expectations to zero near the city

And to anyone that has followed this storm with realistic expectations that should be a shock to no one. Unfortunately many people like to believe they will be in the jackpot no matter what the guidance tells them. Clown maps are the biggest purveyor of this thinking. 

[Snowlover11]

lol 6z NAM is gross

[MJO812]

Boston gets crushed on every model now. We can't win at all.

It's amazing 

[SRRTA22]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Boston gets crushed on every model now. We can't win at all.

It's amazing 

We won so many times in the last decade....we'll win again

[Roger Smith]

06z GFS slower and closer to Long Island. Would expect it to shift rain-snow line to about ISP-JFK but also heavier snow potential n/w suburban areas. 

 

[SRRTA22]

Metsfan 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Boston gets crushed on every model now. We can't win at all.

It's amazing 

They are north of you, of course they will do better with snow.

[wdrag]

9 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Such a nail biter for LI 

No more nail biting there, I don't think.  Northern LI-NYC have a hard time with my expectation T-2" due to above freezing temps. You still have hope at the onset 5-9P Sat and Sunday departure 9A-3P.   Just have to be realistic. Here's the Blend of models from 2AM today. 

[SnoSki14]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Boston gets crushed on every model now. We can't win at all.

It's amazing 

Look on the bright side. Any snow they get will be gone in 2 days.

In fact bad flooding possible for them with that 10th system 

[Snowlover11]

well good night irene on this one, got ugly fast. even for areas north and west of the city(20-25 miles)

[jm1220]

Yep, I think this one’s done for the city/coast, mostly or all rain. Sucks. And for those jealous of SNE, avoid their sub forum for a few days since what they want isn’t what we want other than maybe a miracle with the trailing shortwave lingering some snow. Enjoy NW crew. 

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

They are north of you, of course they will do better with snow.

But they weren't even modeled to get alot of snow. It's just frustrating.