Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Snowguy66]

Question. Has DT posted any updates lately?


.

[Rmine1]

16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Just need him to give me hope on LI

We need more than hope. This looks like a pure rain event for us unfortunately 

[Rmine1]

2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

We need more than hope. This looks like a pure rain event for us unfortunately 

No need to make emergency run to brightwaters bev for this one! Lol

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

No need to make emergency run to brightwaters bev for this one! Lol

Was there the other day lol. 

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

We need more than hope. This looks like a pure rain event for us unfortunately 

I wouldn’t say pure rain. You’ll see some flakes. I wouldn’t gas up the snowblower just yet though 

[Rmine1]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Was there the other day lol. 

Our paths must have unknowingly crossed a few times. I’m literally around the corner, and it’s plainly obvious that I may have a whee bit of a problem 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I wouldn’t say pure rain. You’ll see some flakes. I wouldn’t gas up the snowblower just yet though 

I envision some back end snow, nothing that will accumulate a lot, but we could have a nice post card scene with some light snows all day Sunday at or under 1"

[Rmine1]

Just now, psv88 said:

I wouldn’t say pure rain. You’ll see some flakes. I wouldn’t gas up the snowblower just yet though 

Actually I’ll be at Mount Snow this weekend. I packed my birthday suit to celebrate in the first snow I’ve seen in a while 

[gravitylover]

56 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I'm cooked here in northern Ocean Co

Time to make that move towards Danbury. I'm looking at 4-6 about 13 miles from KDXR. 

[JustinRP37]

4 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Time to make that move towards Danbury. I'm looking at 4-6 about 13 miles from KDXR. 

I have been very quiet lately not wanting to jinx us, but I am thinking we finally have something coming. I honestly think this could be 6-8 our area of Putnam County, but we'll see. I hiked up Ice Pond trail today and it felt wintry out there minus snow. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

16 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Our paths must have unknowingly crossed a few times. I’m literally around the corner, and it’s plainly obvious that I may have a whee bit of a problem 

I love it there. Always a great craft selection in back fridge. 

[RU848789]

Y'all are falling down on the job, lol.  I've been away (playing disc golf) for several hours and I come back to a great GFS run that came out an hour ago and nobody posted this map?  It's not the JMA or the Chilean model, c'mon.  

More seriously as many of us have been saying, let's see what we get at 18Z/0Z tonight after all the players are being well sampled by the RAOB network.  Maybe the GFS will be an outlier, maybe not, but I'd rather have it in the snowier than before camp.  

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, Snowguy66 said:

Question. Has DT posted any updates lately?


.

He’s liking the Euro/EPS.

[Tatamy]

17 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Y'all are falling down on the job, lol.  I've been away (playing disc golf) for several hours and I come back to a great GFS run that came out an hour ago and nobody posted this map?  It's not the JMA or the Chilean model, c'mon.  

More seriously as many of us have been saying, let's see what we get at 18Z/0Z tonight after all the players are being well sampled by the RAOB network.  Maybe the GFS will be an outlier, maybe not, but I'd rather have it in the snowier than before camp.  

Snow amounts on here are a lot greater than those shown on its ensemble mean.  

[gravitylover]

47 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I have been very quiet lately not wanting to jinx us, but I am thinking we finally have something coming. I honestly think this could be 6-8 our area of Putnam County, but we'll see. I hiked up Ice Pond trail today and it felt wintry out there minus snow. 

Yeah you're pretty likely to be on the higher side of that. Enjoy it! I used to love rock climbing at Ice Pond. There's some tough stuff in there. If you get a chance to do some snow hiking on Sunday go into Mike Ciaola from the bottom on Havilland Hollow Rd. 

[Allsnow]

Confluence a bit stronger this run of the 18z euro 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Confluence a bit stronger this run of the 18z euro 

Further south this run leads to more snow by the coast 

[BoulderWX]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Further south this run leads to more snow by the coast 

Yikes. 

[wdrag]

6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Snow amounts on here are a lot greater than those shown on its ensemble mean.  

That's because many are using 10 to 1.  That doesn't work well with melting processes. Everyone in the longer range should start with a base of POSITIVE snow depth change. Then you can look at top end of the range with the 10 to 1, if no sleet/rain. Sleet is converted the same way as snow in the 10 to 1 so it biases amounts high along the warmer edge of the snowfall forecast.

There will be banding and we can look at that more closely Friday, with greater confidence.  

I think we'll see clusters of power outages from wet snow and gusty northeast winds 30-40 MPH early Sunday somewhere near I78 if the snowfall there is 4" or more and falling at temps of 32-33F. 

Otherwise, I kind of think the original plan thread plan still looks reasonable.  Impacts will be much more substantial 9th-11th with I think widespread river-small stream flooding up and down the east coast along the I95 corridor from NNJ southward to Philly and down to NC. Some rivers may go into the low end of the major flood category, provided two storm rainfalls exceed 3". This and wind damage potential looks pretty significant across the eastern third of the country for 9th-10th, plus of course 1/2-3" wet snow I95 west to start that second storm.

Temps into the 50s on Wednesday the 10th I84 southward will add the snowmelt contribution up here in NJ southeast PA. 

[qg_omega]

9 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Yikes. 

This looks pretty reasonable

[Franklin0529]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Further south this run leads to more snow by the coast 

Where? Lol

[BoulderWX]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

This looks pretty reasonable

Agree

[Allsnow]

 

[NittanyWx]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Haven't been in this thread -

Hey did you notice the double S/W capture scenario going on?  The Euro really hits that idea hard, and sends this through a NJ model rapid deepener scenario - toward 985 mb passing SE of the Cape and clear attempt at primitive CCB/clip into eastern southern New England.  Fascinating

I did and I'm hoping to see an idea on the 0zs of how many individual members have this cconcept with the secondary piece.  My initial thought is partial sample size off of partial sampling, plausible but maybe not most likely as of today.  Cant dismiss outright though. 

 

Obviously if this does end up as a rapid developer, the odds of a CCB type band increase significantly.   If it strings out you maybe get some fronto enhancement vs full on CCB weenie band.

[Allsnow]

EPS still very snowy for nyc and nnj 

[forkyfork]

with such strong energy coming into the west behind our system it will be difficult for the mid levels to close off in time for the northeast to get widespread double digits imo

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Love Walt's write ups but shouldn't this storm be on its own thread starting today?

[wdrag]

18z EPS is within a tenth of an inch on its new qpf for the Sat night -Sunday morning snow storm. I've added an 18z EPS graphic 10 to 1 ratio chance of 4+.  While I do not like using 10 to 1 ratio as a first guess... in the all snow region 10 to 1-Kuchera should work but always keeping in mind the base Positive snow depth change. I'll keep pounding this since it's the easiest way to reduce disappointment.  For NYC... EPS Positive snow depth change is 2" now...so within there 1-4 bracket. We're still about 72 hour from the start... so I can't say its a lock yet but hope exists for northern and Western LI to break the less than 2" curse. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

18z EPS is within a tenth of an inch on its new qpf for the Sat night -Sunday morning snow storm. I've added an 18z EPS graphic 10 to 1 ratio chance of 4+.  While I do not like using 10 to 1 ratio as a first guess... in the all snow region 10 to 1-Kuchera should work but always keeping in mind the base Positive snow depth change. I'll keep pounding this since it's the easiest way to reduce disappointment.  For NYC... EPS Positive snow depth change is 2" now...so within there 1-4 bracket. We're still about 72 hour from the start... so I can't say its a lock yet but hope exists for northern and Western LI to break the less than 2" curse. 

Such a nail biter for LI 

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, Snowguy66 said:

Question. Has DT posted any updates lately?


.

Yep, he's fairly pessimistic on the 95 corridor and SE of there...