Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[donsutherland1]

From NWS-New York:

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Haven't been in this thread -

Hey did you notice the double S/W capture scenario going on?  The Euro really hits that idea hard, and sends this through a NJ model rapid deepener scenario - toward 985 mb passing SE of the Cape and clear attempt at primitive CCB into eastern southern New England.  Fascinating

Can you explain this for those of us like myself who do not understand what this means ? 

[BoulderWX]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

No

At 69 it was. Next two frames looking promising. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

At 69 it was. Next two frames looking promising. 

 

[mannynyc]

GFS also appears colder

[BoulderWX]

81 is pretty for the NYC folks 

[cleetussnow]

[Allsnow]

Wow gfs 

[Brasiluvsnow]

at hour 84 ,,,,,,still looks too close for you city folks as IMO it needs be more EAST but I am sure someone else can chime in 

[brooklynwx99]

GFS looks great. stronger surface HP and a more organized S/W

[BoulderWX]

Improvement from 12Z. All I can take away from it. Ping pong continues. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

looks more East to me at hour 90 than it did at 84 close to the benchmark but NOT there,,,,thoughts ?

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Can you explain this for those of us like myself who do not understand what this means ? 

Sure...  there are two short waves really in contention for the Jan 7 event.

The first is being influenced by the 2nd, further upstream. 

 

The 2nd one labeled "2" ...overtakes the lead ( complex physical interaction involving wave mechanics) and eventually subsumes the wave space, which you can see below ...

 

If you go to any of the sites that carry these free graphics and animate the 72 thru 108 hour Euro solution from 12z, you can get a sense of how this happens in fluidity.  

But ...this 102 hour chart above has captured the surface low that the original "1" triggered, and gives it a goose ( so to speak...) intensifying it further.

[Nibor]

That trailing shortwave really is the difference maker on the GFS. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sure...  there are two short waves really in contention for the Jan 7 event.

The first is being influence by the 2nd, further upstream. 

 

The 2nd one labeled "2" ...overtakes the lead ( complex physical interaction involving wave mechanics) and eventually subsumes the wave space, which you can see below ...

 

If you go any of the sites that carry these free graphics and animate the 72 thru 108 hour Euro solution from 12z, you can get a sense of how this happens in fluidity.  

But ...this 102 hour chart above has captured the surface low that the original "1" triggered, and gives it a goose ( so to speak...) intensifying it further.

Thanks ,,nice job ,,,,appreciate it 

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sure...  there are two short waves really in contention for the Jan 7 event.

The first is being influence by the 2nd, further upstream. 

 

The 2nd one labeled "2" ...overtakes the lead ( complex physical interaction involving wave mechanics) and eventually subsumes the wave space, which you can see below ...

 

If you go any of the sites that carry these free graphics and animate the 72 thru 108 hour Euro solution from 12z, you can get a sense of how this happens in fluidity.  

But ...this 102 hour chart above has captured the surface low that the original "1" triggered, and gives it a goose ( so to speak...) intensifying it further.

“Gives it a goose” - best comment of the thread and great, easy to understand explanation. 

[Franklin0529]

Get that trailing shortwave to catch up couple hrs quicker an it's bombs away

[Volcanic Winter]

I'm cooked here in northern Ocean Co, but I'm so excited most of you will hopefully, probably see something respectable out of this.

Reel it in!

Just stinks with all the QPF that will be flying over my head, but what can you do. The airmass is so extremely marginal when the storm approaches the low would have to be much further east for me a chance, so I'll consider it my penance for doing better than most in 1/29 a couple years ago!

Regardless, this has been such a fun week having this to follow & as always you guys kill the analysis. Pleasure to read through.

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Get that trailing shortwave to catch up couple hrs quicker an it's bombs away

Pretty sure this is the initial step toward capitulation to the Euro, which has been more proficient in that (incrementally) for several cycles.

It appears it's capturing more here.   Tell you what, if that gets more proficient on the next runs we got a NJ model bomb      ( not winking at you per se -)   One upshot of GFS volatility is that model has no compunctions over going nuts if given the okay to do so.   (tongue in cheek)

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Pretty sure this is the initial step toward capitulation to the Euro, which has been more proficient in that (incrementally) for several cycles.

It appears it's capturing more here.   Tell you what, if that gets more proficient on the next run we got an NJ model bomb      ( not winking at you per se -)   One upshot of GFS volatility is that model has not compunctions of going nuts if given the okay to do so.   (tongue in cheek)

I'm in Monmouth county here in jersey. I need lots of help lol

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I'm cooked here in northern Ocean Co, but I'm so excited most of you will hopefully, probably see something respectable out of this.

Reel it in!

Just stinks with all the QPF that will be flying over my head, but what can you do. The airmass is so extremely marginal when the storm approaches the low would have to be much further east for me a chance, so I'll consider it my penance for doing better than most in 1/29 a couple years ago!

Regardless, this has been such a fun week having this to follow & as always you guys kill the analysis. Pleasure to read through.

Mm.. so long as we're still (apparently) in a bit of flux as to whence/how much we phase these S/W components that allows some gray area in the probabilities down to central NJ.  Pushing it perhaps ...but non-zero.   You won't have cold very far away, and if future guidance modulates/interacts these aspect sooner and you implode the column ( cannot be outright ruled out yet) than you could flash over for a time -type of thing...  Also, there may be mood by street lamp light activity after the fact in the cooling BLs below the inevitable inversion

[Volcanic Winter]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm.. so long as we're still (apparently) in a bit of flux as to whence/how much we phase these S/W components that allows some gray area in the probabilities down to central NJ.  Pushing it perhaps ...but non-zero.   You won't have cold very far away, and if future guidance modulates/interacts these aspect soon and you implode the column ( cannot be outright ruled out yet) than you could flash over for a time -type of thing...  Also, there may be mood by street lamp light time light activity after the fact in the cooling BLs below the inevitable inversion

Thank you, Tip. I follow you on the NE boards and you're honestly one of my favorite posters. I appreciate your musings and thoughts about things and find you extremely informative. Good luck to you as well (not sure exactly where in NE you're located, but hopefully you're seeing something from this)!

[lee59]

Lee Goldberg thinking good chance the city gets over an inch.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Thank you, Tip. I follow you on the NE boards and you're honestly one of my favorite posters. I appreciate your musings and thoughts about things and find you extremely informative. Good luck to you as well (not sure exactly where in NE you're located, but hopefully you're seeing something from this)!

thanks!  

I'm located in a wonderful location here in interior eastern SNE - particularly for this event ( as is handling and extrapolating thus far... ).   I don't have any room to complain, frankly -

[mannynyc]

GEFS

[cleetussnow]

Having Tip posting down here is like having a celebrity guest star on our program tonight.  

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

I'm in Monmouth county here in jersey. I need lots of help lol

See reply to Volcanic Winter -   same applies....

These are not reasons to raise the goblets here - I'm just outlining that it's not impossible from what I am seeing that this could modulate in favor of clipping your area as we close in on this thing in future runs.   So we'll see...

I will say that the 90-96 hour run blend translates an intense mid level wind max about 1.5 deg lat/lon S of NYC-Cape Cod.   Climo typically results frontogenic (elevated instability) related meso banding through N NJ -CT/RI and Mass.  There may be problems with overcoming other synoptic indicators/metrics but there's time. 

Low probability return for now but there is cast up ability

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Having Tip posting down here is like having a celebrity guest star on our program tonight.  

Just need him to give me hope on LI

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

See reply to Volcanic Winter -   same applies....

These are not reasons to raise the goblets here - I'm just outlining that it's not impossible from what I am seeing that this could modulate in favor of clipping your area as we close in on this thing in future runs.   So we'll see...

I will say that the 90-96 hour run blend translates an intense wind max about 1.5 deg lat/lon S of NYC-Cape Cop.   Climo typically results frontogenic (elevated instability) related meso banding through N NJ -CT/RI and Mass.  There may be problems with overcoming other synoptic indicators/metrics but there's time. 

Low probability return for now but there is cast up ability

Appreciate your input

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Lee Goldberg thinking good chance the city gets over an inch.

Looks like he's bullish on northern parts of the city, like The Bronx, getting close to 6 inches while JFK area probably gets an inch.