Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

when you take out all the model variations and everything like that this is what it’s been telling us for a couple of days now.

 

Not much on the coast, maybe a few slushy inches in the city and immediate northwest burbs, and as you approach 287, you may get closer to 6 inches

Sounds like most storms in most of the 90s....I'd come into Elizabeth and there'd be rain and an inch of slush and people driving in from PA with snow boots on and we'd be like WTF? 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

agree....this is getting ridiculous now...the talk of next weeks storm really has no business being talked about with an event just 3 days away.

Someone want to start another thread for the 1/9-10 storm? This thread was created for both. 

[Big Jims Videos]

Just forked over another $200 for a second night in Allentown at the arena for Saturday night's indoor midget racing event (cars).  Bring it on.  I'll be in the sweet spot regardless what sloppy rain/mangled flakes fall at the beach back home.  Better than worrying about what state plows i-78 better.  

[Big Jims Videos]

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Someone want to start another thread for the 1/9-10 storm? This thread was created for both. 

This one has my attention more than Saturday/Sunday event only because of the widespread potential of bad consequences.  

[Allsnow]

Euro more amped this run 

[mannynyc]

Euro appears to be coming in warmer as well

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro more amped this run 

Maybe it's bias  but it's really warm. All rain for the coast.

[BoulderWX]

Just now, mannynyc said:

Euro appears to be coming in warmer as well

Lovely… I’ll let it play out 

[MJO812]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

Lovely… I’ll let it play out 

 

[Franklin0529]

Uggggggly

[mikeysed]

Is the Ukie after the Euro?

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Uggggggly

Models are all over the place with this storm. That's the beauty of tracking and losing sleep like I have .

[BoulderWX]

Went from 9” verbatim on Euro to 3” hahahahah. This is why I made my previous comment. 
 

UKIE brought me from 10 to 3 as well. lol

[Franklin0529]

Just now, mikeysed said:

Is the Ukie after the Euro?

It's before. It was warm also. Bad trends today 

[BoulderWX]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Models are all over the place with this storm. That's the beauty of tracking and losing sleep like I have .

They actually haven’t been. Relatively consistent minus the GFS today and now Euro. Writing is on the wall. Some will see snow but low amounts and not nearly as widespread as anticipated. IMHO

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Models are all over the place with this storm. That's the beauty of tracking and losing sleep like I have .

Not really all over the place today. Every model has it amped an warm.

[mannynyc]

Taking stock with the 12z runs

Euro

GFS

Canadien

Icon

[mannynyc]

Just now, mannynyc said:

Taking stock with the 12z runs

Euro

GFS

Canadien

Icon

Seems to me that the Canadien is the outlier now with a much stronger storm. Difference between the Icon, GFS and Euro is the placement of the low.

[winterwx21]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro more amped this run 

Very little snow even for our area in Middlesex County on the Euro now. Ugly 12z runs today. We still have a ways to go, but we've known that this is a real thread the needle situation. I'm not optimistic, but still hoping we get lucky. 

[Snowlover11]

euro says you dont get crap anything till your well north of 287-I-84

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Not really all over the place today. Every model has it amped an warm.

I'm talking about all the runs from this week so far.

[vegan_edible]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I'm talking about all the runs from this week so far.

yeah euro is the most floppy in my opinion rn, we shall see what the 12z EPS/ 0z runs say tonight. i dont think we're totally screwed... yet 

[BoulderWX]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm talking about all the runs from this week so far.

Focus day by day. They were relatively consistent for 3-4 days. Today we saw a complete reversal as energy gets sampled. Writing on the wall. Not even sure it’s worth roadtripping for this one anymore. 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

Focus day by day. They were relatively consistent for 3-4 days. Today we saw a complete reversal as energy gets sampled. Writing on the wall. Not even sure it’s worth roadtripping for this one anymore. 

Still all over the place, yeah today it went NW but yesterday went SE. Won't be fully sampled until overnight.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Now that the energy is onshore I’m looking forward to tonight’s runs 

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Still all over the place, yeah today it went NW but yesterday went SE. Won't be fully sampled until overnight.

Today’s been relatively consistent sans the CMC and we know what that’s worth. Unfortunately don’t think more sampling helps us here. Hoping to be wrong. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Focus day by day. They were relatively consistent for 3-4 days. Today we saw a complete reversal as energy gets sampled. Writing on the wall. Not even sure it’s worth roadtripping for this one anymore. 

Last 6 runs of the euro.  We're actually back to where we were yesterday at 12z

[jm1220]

Euro technically isn’t all rain but it’s definitely a step in the wrong/amped direction along with the other 12z. As I said if there’s not enough confluence to force this east before we warm up near the coast, it will try to hug the coast because of the trough out west and SE ridge response, unless we end up with a shredded up S/W like a couple GFS runs had which does us little good either. And there isn’t much of a cold airmass ahead of this to help. So we shouldn’t be surprised at an outcome like that when we lose what we need. 

And for those posting snow maps like the 10-1, all that’s telling you is the liquid equivalent x 10 of what falls as snow, not what sticks on the ground. Up near I-84 or NW of 287 that might be a reality but down here it will be less. 

[MJO812]

Eps is warm and amped. This storm is done for the coast.

Went from promising to nothing .

 

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is warm and amped. This storm is done for the coast.

Went from promising to nothing .

 

You declared coast done yesterday at this time also.

Be patient. Lets see later