Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[winterwx21]

UKMET just came in quite a bit warmer, similar to the CMC. It now has the NYC area on the borderline instead of the big hit it showed last night. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

I want Anthony and everyone else in the 5 boroughs to get some snow but for selfish reasons I know that you " have to smell the rain in order to get the BIG snows " that said there is still a lot to be ironed out here 

[the_other_guy]

49 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

gfs in a bit stronger than last night and keeps the fun going with some light-er snow all day sunday. lets hops the cmc and euro show something a little more amped and we find a happy middle ground. im hoping for a solid 5-6inches in white plains. i do wonder though since i've only lived down here for a year and half and experienced snow twice in this region, would y'all consider white plains a "coastal" area? 

There are three lines in Westchester. One at the Cross County. One at 287. One where the Taconic and Sprain meet.

Below Cross County you deal with northern NYC forecast. Above that you get progressively snowier with each line. 287 being the big line

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

UKMET just came in quite a bit warmer, similar to the CMC. It now has the NYC area on the borderline instead of the big hit it showed last night. 

10-1 maps 3-5 for 95. 4-8 western areas 

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

10-1 maps 3-5 for 95. 4-8 western areas 

Trends aren't our friends today!! See what happens later tonight.

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

South of I84 

huh ? 12Z doesn't show that various model run keep showing south of Raritan River

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

huh ? 12Z doesn't show that various model run keep showing south of Raritan River

We're talking about the Tuesday storm

[mannynyc]

GEFS, still several good looks

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

We're talking about the Tuesday storm

oh ok - glad we are the same page now

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

10-1 maps 3-5 for 95. 4-8 western areas 

It'll be interesting to see if Euro comes in warmer like some of the other 12z models did, but we still have a long way to go before we figure this out. 

[kat5hurricane]

45 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We have a small window near the city between the storm being too warm/NW and weak sauce/SE. It’s possible the storm goes through those goalposts but it’ll be tough. 

Thread the needle, marginal, situations like this rarely pan out for those near the coast. I think anywhere north of the Tappan Zee is the spot to be for this one but... subject to change of course.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

It'll be interesting to see if Euro comes in warmer like some of the other 12z models did, but we still have a long way to go before we figure this out. 

Let's hope for a nudge south/east tomorrow. Right now as usual 95 looks like the battle zone 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Thread the needle, marginal, situations like this rarely pan out for those near the coast. I think anywhere north of the Tappan Zee is the spot to be for this one but... subject to change of course.

We've had events end up with a thump of heavy wet snow and end as snizzle rather than an actual flip to rain 

2/22/08 and 1/24/15 come to mind (not Juno but a few days earlier)

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Thread the needle, marginal, situations like this rarely pan out for those near the coast. I think anywhere north of the Tappan Zee is the spot to be for this one but... subject to change of course.

Tuesdays storm yes - weekend storm have to consider inland north jersey down to Somerset Northern Middlesex Counties...

[the_other_guy]

Can we separate these storm threads? This is too confusing

[BoulderWX]

Been Jack potted every run last night in NNJ.  Definitely not happening but I suppose it’s nice to track something. Also it’s a weekend storm so if somewhere does get 6+, worth a drive. Good luck all

[NEG NAO]

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

Been Jack potted every run last night in NNJ.  Definitely not happening but I suppose it’s nice to track something. Also it’s a weekend storm so if somewhere does get 6+, worth a drive. Good luck all

Why is it definitely not happening? 

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Why is it definitely not happening? 

Sorry that was more being glib because I’ve been burned so many times, sorry for the confusion. That said 06 and 12z took a big step back on the higher amounts. We’ll have to wait and see and again sorry for the off the cuff remark, didn’t mean to confuse anyone. 
 

never like being in the bullseye for several days when it’s this far out. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

Sorry that was more being glib because I’ve been burned so many times, sorry for the confusion. That said 06 and 12z took a big step back on the higher amounts. We’ll have to wait and see and again sorry for the off the cuff remark, didn’t mean to confuse anyone. 
 

never like being in the bullseye for several days when it’s this far out. 

Well I don't really know your location but if you're nw of 287 you're in a good spot 

[mikeysed]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Well I don't really know your location but if you're nw of 287 you're in a good spot 

Looking like up the mountain 4-6" and down Rt 22/ South of 78 2-4" at the moment for us from today's trends.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Well I don't really know your location but if you're nw of 287 you're in a good spot 

I think any place NW of I-287 is as good a spot as any for this one. It’s been consistently hit with 6+ on all the modeling for 2-3 days now.

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Well I don't really know your location but if you're nw of 287 you're in a good spot 

Morris county NJ - Morristown

[BoulderWX]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I think any place NW of I-287 is as good a spot as any for this one. It’s been consistently hit with 6+ on all the modeling for 2-3 days now.

Hoping you’re right my man. I’d love 6” and I don’t care if it rains 2 days later. Let me just see some snow fall on a weekend (or any day)

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Sorry that was more being glib because I’ve been burned so many times, sorry for the confusion. That said 06 and 12z took a big step back on the higher amounts. We’ll have to wait and see and again sorry for the off the cuff remark, didn’t mean to confuse anyone. 
 

never like being in the bullseye for several days when it’s this far out. 

This probably won’t be a high end storm where there are many amounts 12+. It’s moving quickly and won’t be strengthening much when it gets to us. Nothing to slow the storm down. Where it’s all snow it’ll probably be 6-12”. 

[BoulderWX]

Just now, jm1220 said:

This probably won’t be a high end storm where there are many amounts 12+. It’s moving quickly and won’t be strengthening much when it gets to us. Nothing to slow the storm down. Where it’s all snow it’ll probably be 6-12”. 

I’d take 4-6” - I’m in no way expecting double digit snowfall. 

[kdennis78]

I'm getting lost between the two storms. For the Jan. 9 - 10 storm, is anyone getting anything frozen? What are the average rain totals looking like for that storm at this time? What are going to be the extreme maximums with that storm as predicted now? Are we getting 3-4 hours of consistent heavy rain like we have been getting?

Sorry for the questions but I don't have model access and I'm getting lost with both storms in one thread.

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, kdennis78 said:

I'm getting lost between the two storms. For the Jan. 9 - 10 storm, is anyone getting anything frozen? What are the average rain totals looking like for that storm at this time? What are going to be the extreme maximums with that storm as predicted now? Are we getting 3-4 hours of consistent heavy rain like we have been getting?

Sorry for the questions but I don't have model access and I'm getting lost with both storms in one thread.

 

Still up in the air but next week has trended colder so could be more frozen at least at the start

[the_other_guy]

12 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Looking like up the mountain 4-6" and down Rt 22/ South of 78 2-4" at the moment for us from today's trends.

when you take out all the model variations and everything like that this is what it’s been telling us for a couple of days now.

 

Not much on the coast, maybe a few slushy inches in the city and immediate northwest burbs, and as you approach 287, you may get closer to 6 inches

[winterwarlock]

29 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Can we separate these storm threads? This is too confusing

agree....this is getting ridiculous now...the talk of next weeks storm really has no business being talked about with an event just 3 days away.