Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, kingbaus said:

I think this is going to be a very good euro run.

yes

[MJO812]

Euro is a Mid Atlantic storm on the 0z run.

[NEG NAO]

further south and east 0Z EURO

[Rjay]

[qg_omega]

Risk is suppression here not rain

[NEG NAO]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Risk is suppression here not rain

0Z Icon was suppresed along with previous runs of it

 

[Stormlover74]

I'll take it for now

[MJO812]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

0Z Icon was suppresed along with previous runs of it

 

Cmc was the only model amped up but the ensembles disagreed.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'll take it for now

me too - a soaking rain storm is off the table as of now

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

me too - a soaking rain storm is off the table as of now

Disagree but we'll see

[snowman19]

Not going to lie, that run was kinda shocking. That was way suppressed and OTS, last thing I expected. It also backed way off on the Wednesday night event, not that it was supposed to be much of anything anyway. It’s not like we can say the Euro has a suppressed bias like the GFS either. The disturbing thing is that the 0Z ICON did the same thing only it was even more suppressed than the Euro. Hopefully not the beginning of a trend

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

me too - a soaking rain storm is off the table as of now

I'd rather see this now and have it come back north since it usually trends that way

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Disagree but we'll see

All the options are on the table

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not going to lie, that run was kinda shocking. That was way suppressed and OTS, last thing I expected. It also backed way off on the Wednesday night event, not that it was supposed to be much of anything anyway. It’s not like we can say the Euro has a suppressed bias like the GFS either. The disturbing thing is that the 0Z ICON did the same thing only it was even more suppressed than the Euro. Hopefully not the beginning of a trend

There is a limit to how far north this can go because of the ridge breaking down out west and the blocking to the north. 

Going to be an interesting week 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'd rather see this now and have it come back north since it usually trends that way

also suppression has not been an issue so far this season and there is really nothing to suppress it completely IMO -partially yes

 

[jayyy]

Not going to lie, that run was kinda shocking. That was way suppressed and OTS, last thing I expected. It also backed way off on the Wednesday night event, not that it was supposed to be much of anything anyway. It’s not like we can say the Euro has a suppressed bias like the GFS either. The disturbing thing is that the 0Z ICON did the same thing only it was even more suppressed than the Euro. Hopefully not the beginning of a trend

It really wouldn’t be all that shocking if this ends up being more impactful in the DC - Philly corridor than it is in the NYC to BOS corridor. Nothing is off the table a week out, but the longwave pattern we’re entering has resulted in a mid Atlantic bullseye numerous times over the years.

Going to be a wild next 4 days of tracking. We’ll know MUCH more after that Wednesday wave passes by. Would be badass to finally see a DC to Boston snowstorm, but I’m not sure this is the one to do. One of those areas will end up much happier than the other come next weekend.

[NEG NAO]

just over 12 hours ago Walt wrote this to start the thread - hard to take suppession that seriously yet

" but it's possible that next Sundays probable wintry event will shift a little more inland with rain dominating along the coast."  

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

just over 12 hours ago Walt wrote this to start the thread - hard to take suppession that seriously yet

" but it's possible that next Sundays probable wintry event will shift a little more inland with rain dominating along the coast."  

Things change especially since it's 6 days out. 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Things change especially since it's 6 days out. 

but you need some agreement  amongst the models and several model runs of it in a row to start gaining confidence.They are all over the place

[MJO812]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

but you need some agreement  amongst the models and several model runs of it in a row to start gaining confidence.

Of course

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Would love to hear snowman19’s take but anytime there is a threat of snow he goes MIA. 

[MJO812]

0z Eps is more amped than the op run but less amped than 12z run.

[jayyy]

0z Eps is more amped than the op run but less amped than 12z run.

The GFS was also slightly more amped / NW with the initial SW versus 18z… the big difference was that redevelopment got shunted further SE due to more confluence ahead of the system. Hence the congrats to Baltimore and the surrounding area


.

[MJO812]

From SNE subforum 

Eps

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

12 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Would love to hear snowman19’s take but anytime there is a threat of snow he goes MIA. 

And just to be clear with the overall pattern I am expecting a mix to rain at the very least

[Wxoutlooksblog]

36 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Risk is suppression here not rain

Don't agree. Risk is either suppression or rain. We are in a phase where most of the models will trend south and east. We most likely will be in a trending north/west trend again as the event nears. It all depends on how far these trends go in each phase.

WX/PT

[mannynyc]

EPS members

[mannynyc]

GEFS members

[Tatamy]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Things change especially since it's 6 days out. 

We are going to have many runs with many different outcomes over the next few days for the upcoming weekend.  We will see results ranging from big hits in the mid-Atlantic, a crush job here, runs with precip issues along the coast, and any combination of the above.  We then potentially get to do it again during next week with a greater chance of a region wide change to rain.  Nothing is currently set in stone for how this all works out.

[ForestHillWx]

Speaking for my area only, I know the city east often rides the line when storms amp, the individual members of the EPS have dramatically increased chances at a substantial snowfall.
Long way to go, but a positive development imho. 

[SnoSki14]

GFS with a nice weenie run