Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[mannynyc]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models look great tonight 

 

Gfs and cmc

Kuchera is probably better for analysis

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models look great tonight 

 

Gfs and cmc

The other take away here is how the increased confluence is creating a stronger downslope flow in the LHV and the CT River which greatly reduces accumulations up there.  

[MJO812]

This looks like a Miller A now

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yes and to think 12 hours ago some including PT and snowman19 were talking NW trends and mostly liquid ........and then that funky looking 12Z EURO

Still plenty of time for that to reverse back NW. We're still 4 days away.

[Stormlover74]

You heard keno lock up the thread close up shop

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still plenty of time for that to reverse back NW. We're still 4 days away.

We are seeing the confluence pushing more and more south tonight . Maybe we can squeeze out a few inches here. 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Still plenty of time for that to reverse back NW. We're still 4 days away.

yes as I mentioned earlier have to keep an open mind this far in advance and Dr. No might come along after midnight and spoil the party like a couple of days ago - and in another day or so the early mesoscale model crowd will join the discussion.....

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

You heard keno lock up the thread close up shop

relative of Snowman19..........right close up shop with a 1034 HP near Maine and a 987 LP off the coast in January.......

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We are seeing the confluence pushing more and more south tonight . Maybe we can squeeze out a few inches here. 

I don’t even want to think about what must be going on in the NE forum tonight.

[kingbaus]

5 minutes ago, keno19 said:

Please don't spend too much time on the sat night-sunday storm.  More of a wave.  No arctic air injection.  Not too much energy.   Long island  some snow and to rain.  Please come back and remember i said this with confidence.  Don't waster your time. lol   Besides sw winds  next week all gone warming trend.   People will hate  me for anti snow post.  Forecast with your brain,  not the outcome you want!

Saving this post. Anyways how can get this back to a MECS again like what the models were showing the other day.

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still plenty of time for that to reverse back NW. We're still 4 days away.

GEFS is in a perfect spot right now honestly

[Franklin0529]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is in a perfect spot right now honestly

Map?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I don’t even want to think about what must be going on in the NE forum tonight.

Check it out

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Map?

Gefs is even further south , weaker and colder. 

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yes as I mentioned earlier have to keep an open mind this far in advance and Dr. No might come along after midnight and spoil the party like a couple of days ago - and in another day or so the early mesoscale model crowd will join the discussion.....

Yeah and when we start looking at NAM tomorrow, we'll be talking about how NAM isn't accurate in the long range and we have to wait awhile. We have a long way to go before we get a good idea of what this storm is gonna be like for us. 

[mannynyc]

GEFS

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, mannynyc said:

GEFS

close to half the members are good........

[MJO812]

[kingbaus]

Ensambles look south and east.

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Pretty damn perfect spot for the city 

[MJO812]

Just now, kingbaus said:

Ensambles look south and east.

And colder

[kingbaus]

ukie has a 999 off of obx

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

ukie has a 999 off of obx

It's amazing for almost all

[mannynyc]

UKIE

[kingbaus]

The euro will be very telling hopefully we'll see more good trends.

[RU848789]

Every model, so far tonight, has made significant increases in snowfall amounts for almost everyone in the 95-corridor and towards the coast, as well as nearby NW suburbs.  Now we wait to see what the Euro says and if we can maintain such a snowy forecast through the next few days and actually see the snow.  Really would love to see the forecast/track hold after all the players are within the RAOB network sometime tomorrow (hoping we're not missing some key initialization data).  

[kingbaus]

Does anyone have early access to the euro @MJO812 or someone else.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, mannynyc said:

UKIE

Wow Ukie 

 

from the warmest to snowiest model now 

[jayyy]

Does anyone have early access to the euro [mention=186]MJO812[/mention] or someone else.

Out to 54. Confluence a smidge better, SW a smidge weaker in the 4 corners region vs. 00z gfs

[kingbaus]

8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Out to 54. Confluence a smidge better, SW a smidge weaker in the 4 corners region vs. 00z gfs

Do you use weather bell?