Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[psv88]

51 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we have easterly winds off the water it’ll warm right up to above where snow can stick if not rain. It’s really about the track of the storm obviously and whether we can hold onto offshore winds. And yes-if it does end up more suppressed there’s the risk the storm is just too weak and it’s too warm anyway. We have a airmass that can work but not ideal. Suppressed would happen with strong confluence or a weakening wave coming east. There’s a possibility we can do okay especially where we are but it’ll take a lot to go right. 

I know I know, just having some fun. This could be a storm where you double my total, every mile NW makes a difference in these setups 

[NittanyWx]

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

I know how to read a clown map.  I also know how to read a temperature map and a sounding.  You don't want this fight.

 

Tl;dr:  the 10:1 clown maps are misleading on accumulations in marginal setups like this and not particularly useful along the coastal plain right now.

[Irish]

1 minute ago, NittanyWx said:

I know how to read a clown map.  I also know how to read a temperature map and a sounding.  You don't want this fight.

Put your dukes up!

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I know I know, just having some fun. This could be a storm where you double my total, every mile NW makes a difference in these setups 

We'll see. Something left on the ground after it's over will be a win in my book. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I know how to read a clown map.  I also know how to read a temperature map and a sounding.  You don't want this fight.

 

Tl;dr:  the 10:1 clown maps are misleading on accumulations in marginal setups like this and not particularly useful along the coastal plain right now.

1-3 is a good call for the coast . The cold air isn't impressive but things can change .

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

1-3 is a good call for the coast . The cold air isn't impressive but things can change .

Icon out yet?

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Icon out yet?

East of 18z

[WestBabylonWeather]

Storm chasing to kings point. Lol. 

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

East of 18z

Not bad. Still just southern stream?

[brooklynwx99]

stronger confluence on the CMC and GFS. CMC is a MECS verbatim

[MJO812]

Cmc is east and colder

[kingbaus]

GFS looks awful

[MJO812]

Just now, kingbaus said:

GFS looks awful

Good spot

[mannynyc]

GFS wants to make this a non event for basically everyone. Very weak

[mannynyc]

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Good spot

Don't look awful too me. The high trended stronger 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, mannynyc said:

GFS wants to make this a non event for basically everyone. Very weak

you want the GFS in this spot at this range

[kingbaus]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Good spot

Ok I take it back but it looks real weak. Heard the cmc is real good.

[brooklynwx99]

the shift stronger in the confluence is important. helps compress the flow, increasing uplift and strengthening surface HP

[mannynyc]

Canadien looks nice

[MJO812]

Cmc is east and colder

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is east and colder

Nothing wrong with that.  Let's get that confluence a little stronger. Everyone knows about the inevitable north push 24 hrs out

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

Ok I take it back but it looks real weak. Heard the cmc is real good.

May be playing into the GFS south bias at this range but this was apparently resolved with the latest upgrade? In any event weak crap won't work for the city and east either because of the warm flow off the ocean before the storm. Light precip would likely be just white rain.

[Franklin0529]

Gfs looks to be about 4-6" in the city 

[MJO812]

Models look great tonight 

 

Gfs and cmc

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Models look great tonight 

 

Gfs and cmc

That trailing wave keeps it snowing through Sunday afternoon lol

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

That trailing wave keeps it snowing through Sunday afternoon lol

Yep that's a wildcard

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models look great tonight 

 

Gfs and cmc

yes and to think 12 hours ago some including PT and snowman19 were talking NW trends and mostly liquid ........and then that funky looking 12Z EURO

[MJO812]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

yes and to think 12 hours ago some including PT and snowman19 were talking NW trends and mostly liquid ........and that funky looking 12Z EURO

I never thought this was going to be really amped. Now we have a wildcard with the trailing wave . 

Love seeing the cmc trend colder and further east.

Gefs coming out soon and ukie

 

[kingbaus]

I like what the cmc is starting to cook. Hopefully it can lead into something.