Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[SnowGoose69]

I have always found anytime confluence is a concern it abates sometimes on models around Day 4-6 only to start becoming a problem again inside of that.  Its why I am still concerned this could move SE.  

[Tatamy]

19z BOM goes with 7-9” across eastern/NE PA, western/NW NJ, SE NY, and interior CT.

[Allsnow]

These models and maps are always changing 

[weathermedic]

As Bernie always says "windshield wiper effect" Models will go back and forth in the days preceding a storm

[MJO812]

Gefs weaker

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

These models and maps are always changing 

I think the models have been reasonably consistent so far with this event.

[SnowGoose69]

Obviously you never should focus too much on Op runs at 100-120 hours but I cannot remember a single major system where the Op Euro was not overamped the last few winters...the fact its consistently been the most SE the last few runs is sort of concerning to me as that has rarely happened in recent years on stronger systems at this range.  Its a very apparent bias that is absent the last 2 days here 

[MJO812]

Weaker

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weaker

I thought we were rooting for stronger? Is it cause it's mostly southern stream now? 

[snywx]

15 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

19z BOM goes with 7-9” across eastern/NE PA, western/NW NJ, SE NY, and interior CT.

BOM? I’ve seen this referenced lately 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

I thought we were rooting for stronger? Is it cause it's mostly southern stream now? 

It lost the Miller B and now is a southern stream Miller A which might help us out just like what Allsnow said.

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

I thought we were rooting for stronger? Is it cause it's mostly southern stream now? 

They don’t know what they’re rooting for. We’re seeing what sticks.

One has it north and strong. one has it east and weak. But both those equal the same thing snow then rain. one because it’s not strong enough to pull cold air in and one because it’s too far north, and brings us warm air.

The rest are somewhere in between.

Long story short if you live near 287 you’re gonna have a good day. If you live in Long Beach, you’re gonna have a bad day. If you live in city youre gonna have a miss near enough to stay tuned

 

 

[cardinalland]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

BOM? I’ve seen this referenced lately 

(national) blend of models i believe

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It lost the Miller B and now is a southern stream Miller A which might help us out just like what Allsnow said.

listen, you always root for Miller A over a Miller B. I don’t even know why Miller Bs exist if you live in New York City 

[MJO812]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

listen, you always root for Miller A over a Miller B. I don’t even know why Miller Bs exist if you live in New York City 

We do fine with Miller Bs but not as good as SNE northward. 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

listen, you always root for Miller A over a Miller B. I don’t even know why Miller Bs exist if you live in New York City 

Yes I've always been a fan of Miller A near the Jersey shore 

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We do fine with Miller Bs but not as good as SNE northward. 

Miller A is the Chocolate Babca. Miller B the Cinnamon Babca. if you’re old enough to know the Seinfeld reference, you know what I’m talking about

[qg_omega]

On 1/1/2024 at 1:39 AM, qg_omega said:

Risk is suppression here not rain

Still see this as the main risk

[MJO812]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Still see this as the main risk

Same here 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Same here 

Really? Off one run of the gfs? Earlier everything was amped an too warm.. I'd be happy with a 3-5" storm. But I doubt that happens at my location 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Really? Off one run of the gfs? Earlier everything was amped an too warm.. I'd be happy with a 3-5" storm. But I doubt that happens at my location 

From the start due to the confluence and the breaking down of the ridge.

[North and West]

Really? Off one run of the gfs? Earlier everything was amped an too warm.. I'd be happy with a 3-5" storm. But I doubt that happens at my location 

have you considered the sun angle


.

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

have you considered the sun angle


.

not yet but considering this storm is rolling through at night in january its actually my highest concern

[North and West]

not yet but considering this storm is rolling through at night in january its actually my highest concern

new year, same me


.

[Allsnow]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It lost the Miller B and now is a southern stream Miller A which might help us out just like what Allsnow said.

The low shooting up into Wv kills the bl 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The low shooting up into Wv kills the bl 

Looks like the gefs lost all the Ohio valley lows

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I have always found anytime confluence is a concern it abates sometimes on models around Day 4-6 only to start becoming a problem again inside of that.  Its why I am still concerned this could move SE.  

But Goose with all this Northern trends South and East would be a GOOD thing for snow lovers especially along the coast , no ? Unless you are not looking for or wanting snow ?

[Rjay]

Did I seriously read a post about initialization errors today? 

[Tatamy]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Did I seriously read a post about initialization errors today? 

You really did… lol

[Brasiluvsnow]

31 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Did I seriously read a post about initialization errors today? 

it was somewhere between the Marble Rye and the Cinnamon Babka