Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Stronger storm better outcome. Nyc mean is 5 which is impressive 

 

control is 6-10 for nyc 

It never seems to work out for us when the ensembles look so much different than the op

[donsutherland1]

Even as attention is focused on the possible snowfall for late Saturday into Sunday, perhaps the bigger story for the first half of January will be the potential rainstorm for January 9-10. Already, there is an impressive signal on the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) guidance:

[North and West]

Even as attention is focused on the possible snowfall for late Saturday into Sunday, perhaps the bigger story for the first half of January will be the potential rainstorm for January 9-10. Already, there is an impressive signal on the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) guidance:

Backup sump pump battery is arriving Friday!

I’m on a hill as well; it’s the high water table people are going to be wrestling with if there’s rain + snowmelt.


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[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

Backup sump pump battery is arriving Friday!

I’m on a hill as well; it’s the high water table people are going to be wrestling with if there’s rain + snowmelt.


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Hopefully, the storm won’t be as wet as currently appears.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even as attention is focused on the possible snowfall for late Saturday into Sunday, perhaps the bigger story for the first half of January will be the potential rainstorm for January 9-10. Already, there is an impressive signal on the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) guidance:

Tough situation for the Northeast coming off the wettest December and calendar year at several locations.

 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

Backup sump pump battery is arriving Friday!

I’m on a hill as well; it’s the high water table people are going to be wrestling with if there’s rain + snowmelt.


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The QPF for the 2nd event is around 1”-2”. Hopefully we won’t have many issues. Fingers crossed.

 

[North and West]

The QPF for the 2nd event is around 1”-2”. Hopefully we won’t have many issues. Fingers crossed.
 

Amazing that in the decade and a half that I’ve had this sump pump in the new part of my basement (I added a French drain in conjunction with it), it ran the longest it ever has right before Christmas. Didn’t run for Isiais, Ida, or Irene. (We love our Is)


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[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Amazing that in the decade and a half that I’ve had this sump pump in the new part of my basement (I added a French drain in conjunction with it), it ran the longest it ever has right before Christmas. Didn’t run for Isiais, Ida, or Irene. (We love our Is)


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With the QPF amounts we’ve had for the last month plus vegetation dormant, everything is totally saturated. What would help would be the ground surface to freeze. That would help some but be worse for the folks living near the waterways. Definitely a tough time for many. 

[weatherpruf]

18 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

With the QPF amounts we’ve had for the last month plus vegetation dormant, everything is totally saturated. What would help would be the ground surface to freeze. That would help some but be worse for the folks living near the waterways. Definitely a tough time for many. 

Dormant? I 've got rosemary growing fresh, creeping charlie still green and growing, and green grass that looks suspiciously like its starting to grow.....

[kingbaus]

I guess the 12z runs took the wind out of the sails in this thread

[cleetussnow]

Anyone look at EPS?  I imagine not good since no one has mentioned it.  This winter.  

[Uniblab]

40 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Dormant? I 've got rosemary growing fresh, creeping charlie still green and growing, and green grass that looks suspiciously like its starting to grow.....

And I was right, crocuses about half an inch out of the ground. 

[BoulderWX]

People so pumped for an event 5 days out. Don’t worry about specifics right now. In fact that shouldn’t happen for many until Friday. Tomorrow night and Thursday things should distract crystallizing. 
 

I’ve been in a great spot for the last 2 days and I take that with the biggest grain of salt and shot of tequila. 
 

something to track. Nothing more. Nothing less. 

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Anyone look at EPS?  I imagine not good since no one has mentioned it.  This winter.  

It was not bad if you are inland.  The axis of heaviest snow would be from northern NJ across SE NY to interior CT.  The ensemble mean in this area calls for 6-7”

[Allsnow]

Icon is 3-6 for the metro. Weaker system with stronger confluence 

[qg_omega]

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

This is in line with what Mets and knowledgable posters have been indicating here this afternoon. 

[kingbaus]

Looks a little east to my untrained eye

[Allsnow]

Gfs is colder with a weaker system. Big hit for 95 area. The system moving is faster helps 

[kingbaus]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Gfs is colder with a weaker system. Big hit for 95 area 

That's what I thought too.

[Allsnow]

[MJO812]

12z vs 18z

[Allsnow]

8-10 for area on the happy hour gfs 

[Allsnow]

[mikeysed]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Do you have the Kuchera map? As I don't think 10:1 will be accurate for i95 and east

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Do you have the Kuchera map? As I don't think 10:1 will be accurate for i95 and east

4-8 for the area on Kuchera 

[Allsnow]

The gfs doing this all with the southern stream energy is proper best bet closer to the coast 

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Do you have the Kuchera map? As I don't think 10:1 will be accurate for i95 and east

Kuchie actually looked pretty good.

[NYCvort]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

When you figure that southern branch storms correct their surface low tracks further west/north within the final 78 hours, this has bad news written all over it. Marginal airmass, warm SSTs along the coast still, weakening confluence, boundary level flow coming from the east, surface low tracking close, trough in the west, midlevel lows closing off too close for comfort. Plus, as @bluewave said before, the SE ridge pump is always underestimated in setups like this, as is sneaky warm noses. One you get thunderstorms blowing up in the south, which is guaranteed too happen, the latent and sensible heat release aloft is only going to serve to pump the SE ridge even further. I’ll take the under on this storm, not just for the city and the coast but north and west of the city too. This is an I-84 north special IMO 

Excellent write up, agree 100%. Setup right now is the best case scenario for northern suburbs, but the NW trend likely isn’t even over

[BoulderWX]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Every map has me in the bullseye for 6-10. As most of you know me, that doesn’t make me feel an ounce of confidence.