Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

Even as attention is focused on the possible snowfall for late Saturday into Sunday, perhaps the bigger story for the first half of January will be the potential rainstorm for January 9-10. Already, there is an impressive signal on the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) guidance:

image.png.71379ccd36d9368ccdd7dbcf8e9aa409.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even as attention is focused on the possible snowfall for late Saturday into Sunday, perhaps the bigger story for the first half of January will be the potential rainstorm for January 9-10. Already, there is an impressive signal on the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) guidance:
image.png.71379ccd36d9368ccdd7dbcf8e9aa409.png

Backup sump pump battery is arriving Friday!

I’m on a hill as well; it’s the high water table people are going to be wrestling with if there’s rain + snowmelt.


.
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, North and West said:


Backup sump pump battery is arriving Friday!

I’m on a hill as well; it’s the high water table people are going to be wrestling with if there’s rain + snowmelt.


.

Hopefully, the storm won’t be as wet as currently appears.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even as attention is focused on the possible snowfall for late Saturday into Sunday, perhaps the bigger story for the first half of January will be the potential rainstorm for January 9-10. Already, there is an impressive signal on the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) guidance:

image.png.71379ccd36d9368ccdd7dbcf8e9aa409.png

Tough situation for the Northeast coming off the wettest December and calendar year at several locations.

 

 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The QPF for the 2nd event is around 1”-2”. Hopefully we won’t have many issues. Fingers crossed.
 
E18A42F8-15BD-4854-927E-3EB87EDD0F16.thumb.png.497f92f775950a9e1fed38bb35801904.png
7F89BA56-92C3-47AE-A8C6-886FDE47CADD.thumb.png.4ea833c33838e04b5f68ca7fdfcb5ab3.png

Amazing that in the decade and a half that I’ve had this sump pump in the new part of my basement (I added a French drain in conjunction with it), it ran the longest it ever has right before Christmas. Didn’t run for Isiais, Ida, or Irene. (We love our Is)


.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, North and West said:


Amazing that in the decade and a half that I’ve had this sump pump in the new part of my basement (I added a French drain in conjunction with it), it ran the longest it ever has right before Christmas. Didn’t run for Isiais, Ida, or Irene. (We love our Is)


.

With the QPF amounts we’ve had for the last month plus vegetation dormant, everything is totally saturated. What would help would be the ground surface to freeze. That would help some but be worse for the folks living near the waterways. Definitely a tough time for many. :(

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

With the QPF amounts we’ve had for the last month plus vegetation dormant, everything is totally saturated. What would help would be the ground surface to freeze. That would help some but be worse for the folks living near the waterways. Definitely a tough time for many. :(

Dormant? I 've got rosemary growing fresh, creeping charlie still green and growing, and green grass that looks suspiciously like its starting to grow.....

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

People so pumped for an event 5 days out. Don’t worry about specifics right now. In fact that shouldn’t happen for many until Friday. Tomorrow night and Thursday things should distract crystallizing. 
 

I’ve been in a great spot for the last 2 days and I take that with the biggest grain of salt and shot of tequila. 
 

something to track. Nothing more. Nothing less. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Anyone look at EPS?  I imagine not good since no one has mentioned it.  This winter.  

It was not bad if you are inland.  The axis of heaviest snow would be from northern NJ across SE NY to interior CT.  The ensemble mean in this area calls for 6-7”

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

When you figure that southern branch storms correct their surface low tracks further west/north within the final 78 hours, this has bad news written all over it. Marginal airmass, warm SSTs along the coast still, weakening confluence, boundary level flow coming from the east, surface low tracking close, trough in the west, midlevel lows closing off too close for comfort. Plus, as @bluewave said before, the SE ridge pump is always underestimated in setups like this, as is sneaky warm noses. One you get thunderstorms blowing up in the south, which is guaranteed too happen, the latent and sensible heat release aloft is only going to serve to pump the SE ridge even further. I’ll take the under on this storm, not just for the city and the coast but north and west of the city too. This is an I-84 north special IMO 

Excellent write up, agree 100%. Setup right now is the best case scenario for northern suburbs, but the NW trend likely isn’t even over

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...