Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[EastonSN+]

29 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It really is uncanny how often that tends to correct stronger, as you’ve always discussed. 

Look at trough digging into SW California, it's further west than the earlier run and is actually what ruined our neg NAO episodes from March, last December and two Decembers ago.

Forky actually had a post a couple days ago pointing this out with "sorry don't like the trough here" or something to that effect.

Like waves in a bathtub, dip in the west equals ridge in the east. 

Also I posted a post from orh_wxman a few weeks ago which explained that a deep trough in the SW only works when you have a piece of the PV driving south like in December 2002, which goes to show it's relatively rare to overcome and we do not have a piece of the PV to our north driving south this time.

[kat5hurricane]

55 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Trend is not our friend but these things tend to wobble in both directions. 

Usually when the models lock on a north trend, it doesn't wobble the other way in a significant manner. Never underestimate the SE Ridge. This is why I always like our chances (at the coast) better when the models are showing a more suppressed look 4-5 days out. 

[Franklin0529]

5 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Nothing like a good old fashioned storm cancel, 5 days out. 

Not a cancel. Just following the trends. These never correct south 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Not a cancel. Just following the trends. These never correct south 

Exactly-thats why you want a scrape or miss OTS from this range.   NW trends usually continue right up to go time so this (based on prior events) is likely to be mostly rain for the city/coast.  Airmass in Canada is not all that cold either...

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Not a cancel. Just following the trends. These never correct south 

Yeah I don't remember the last time a storm corrected south inside 72 hours. We might see some waffling but the final solution is likely an interior hit, rain for the coast with a battleground in between. 95 corridor could see 0 to 6" 

[NittanyWx]

Going to again reiterate that I believe the upside for this storm along the coastal plain is a low end event, even in a suppressed solution, if you want to keep it snow. 

 

Inland a different story.

[Neblizzard]

11 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Nothing like a good old fashioned storm cancel, 5 days out. 

That’s why you can’t even trust models 24 hours in.   I’ve learned my lesson 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

That’s why you can’t even trust models 24 hours in.   I’ve learned my lesson 

Models have been horrible in the last few years.

[lee59]

It is Tuesday, the storm is Saturday night into Sunday. A wobble off the current track by only 50 miles can make a big difference. Still in the game.

[NittanyWx]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

Too tough for me.  Guess 1-4 for a start.  Just no lock.  May not know til Friday afternoon 

think this is a reasonable first guess, though towards lower end.

[tristateweatherFB]

It really makes me laugh with these posts. Between winter cancel. No opportunities coming. Then wow we going to get slammed.  To oh no it’s shifting nw.   Any of us can look at a model and see what it shows.  Imagine if all models were correct a week out or 3 days out etc. What would be the point of the challenge to forecast this?  Personally I kept saying for a couple of days snow nyc on north.  Then stick with it until the energy comes onto the mainland and models adjust. Breathe ppl it’s going to be a wild ride this winter.  Major opportunities with cold to work with coming up.   

[psv88]

54 minutes ago, snywx said:

12z GEFS prob of >4"

Going to be a great storm for you up there. Send us some photos 

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

It really makes me laugh with these posts. Between winter cancel. No opportunities coming. Then wow we going to get slammed.  To oh no it’s shifting nw.   Any of us can look at a model and see what it shows.  Imagine if all models were correct a week out or 3 days out etc. What would be the point of the challenge to forecast this?  Personally I kept saying for a couple of days snow nyc on north.  Then stick with it until the energy comes onto the mainland and models adjust. Breathe ppl it’s going to be a wild ride this winter.  Major opportunities with cold to work with coming up.   

Its pretty par for the course. There are other boards where its nothing but hugging the coldest and snowiest model and anything else is considered negative. I think most on here have a decent understanding of how these things work. It's also highly possible that NYC gets nothing for this event or the follow-up and has to wait until late month which many people said from the beginning. So its nice to have something to track despite all the model hugging and wishcasting. Now onto the euro in a few where we'll all be throwing in the towel or back on board depending on what it shows.

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its pretty par for the course. There are other boards where its nothing but hugging the coldest and snowiest model and anything else is considered negative. I think most on here have a decent understanding of how these things work. It's also highly possible that NYC gets nothing for this event or the follow-up and has to wait until late month which many people said from the beginning. So its nice to have something to track despite all the model hugging and wishcasting. Now onto the euro in a few where we'll all be throwing in the towel or back on board depending on what it shows.

Good post.  Regarding the follow up apparently no one here has looked at what the CMC OP does with it… lol

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Tatamy said:

Good post.  Regarding the follow up apparently no one here has looked at what the CMC OP does with it… lol

I just saw the gfs wasn't nearly as wet as it had been

[White Gorilla]

28 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

It really makes me laugh with these posts. Between winter cancel. No opportunities coming. Then wow we going to get slammed.  To oh no it’s shifting nw.   Any of us can look at a model and see what it shows.  Imagine if all models were correct a week out or 3 days out etc. What would be the point of the challenge to forecast this?  Personally I kept saying for a couple of days snow nyc on north.  Then stick with it until the energy comes onto the mainland and models adjust. Breathe ppl it’s going to be a wild ride this winter.  Major opportunities with cold to work with coming up.   

Agree, we repeat this yearly, though let's be sympathetic too for everyone after such a long snow drought. 

[Allsnow]

Euro so far is faster ejecting the energy 

[kat5hurricane]

53 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Not a cancel. Just following the trends. These never correct south 

Exactly. We've all been through this before and we know how it usually ends. This is in all likelihood an interior snowstorm, these marginal threats usually favor the interior. This isn't exactly a storm cancel based on nothing, it's a pattern recognition and following historical trends.

It doesn't mean that a favorable change can't occur however but it's a longshot for anything significant at the coast.

[nycwinter]

i am use to getting  winter rainstorms here  in nyc since snow is becoming a rare occurance..

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro so far is faster ejecting the energy 

Euro going to be southeast this run. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Euro going to be southeast this run. 

1001 off obx compared to 996 inland of NC on 00z 

[Winter Wizard]

OH Valley primary low looks weaker and north and Canadian high retreating a bit sooner. Hour 102.

[Franklin0529]

A weaker storm isn't going to cut it I don't think 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

A weaker storm isn't going to cut it I don't think 

Nope. Really doesn’t get going until it’s northeast of us. Nice hit for Pa and sne 

[Franklin0529]

No good. 

[Allsnow]

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Nope. Really doesn’t get going until it’s northeast of us. Nice hit for Pa and sne 

Yep looking like that now . 

Sorry guys . I think I jinxed this for us when I said that we haven't had a storm hitting SNE and us rain in a long time. 

[MJO812]

So we went from suppression to being too amped.

I thought this was going to be suppressed due to the 50 50 and ridge breaking down. 

[vegan_edible]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yep looking like that now . 

Sorry guys . I think I jinxed this for us when I said that we haven't had a storm hitting SNE and us rain in a long time. 

one run, we will see how it is tonight

[Winter Wizard]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

A weaker storm isn't going to cut it I don't think 

Nope. The low center is 2 mb weaker and a bit east, but the rain-snow line is more N and W. I reiterate what the other mets have said that this is very much thread the needle between conflicting variables. You need to simultaneously balance being amplified enough to send in the best dynamics and not be squashed by confluence, but also not torching the mid levels with strong easterly flow.  Extremely difficult to pull off in this setup. Interior is a different story, this should be nice for the Poconos, NWNJ, and I-84 corridor in NY.