Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Franklin0529]

Writings on the wall with this one. Unfortunately city east won't get much of anything. The high is retreating to quickly. These usually don't come back south 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

It depends, an east wind will turn the island to rain in February too, this particular track isn't conducive to snow here,

but then you have something like the Millenium storm which was all snow here in SW Nassau in late December, even Long Beach was all snow.

 

Much better airmass

[Wxoutlooksblog]

GFS and CMC are each all rain for coastal areas and the big cities of the northeast. Just not enough or cold enough air.

WX/PT

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Yep, unfortunate shifts / changes right now, important to see how much they “lock in” tonight into tomorrow. Once that consistency is showing up is when I’d start to think that’s approaching the correct solution (always with some last minute variation of course). 

[mannynyc]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Writings on the wall with this one. Unfortunately city east won't get much of anything. The high is retreating to quickly. These usually don't come back south 

Trend is not our friend but these things tend to wobble in both directions. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said:

GFS and CMC are each all rain for coastal areas and the big cities of the northeast.

WX/PT

 

No 

[Allsnow]

CMC was tucked into nyc last night now it’s east of acy 

[snywx]

I think coastal sections might be able to squeeze out a few inches before the changeover but ultimately this is a N/W 287 snowstorm. Almost every piece of guidance now has 8-12" for NE PA, NW NJ, HV into SNE

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Stronger Southeast ridge this run leading to warmer storm track for the coast. This was expected with the trough in the West. 
 

New run

Old run

 

 

Confluence also looked a little weaker. If that can hold I think that’s our only real shot here. The W trough is going to make this want to cut. Also marginal temps anyway as others have pointed out. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No 

Warmest 850’s get on both the gfs cmc. Not saying it’s all snow but it’s certainly not 100% rain verbatim 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Confluence is weaker but the trough out west didn’t become stronger 

The trough is more consolidated near the Four Corners. The GFS forecast sounding is likely underestimating the warming near the coast with such a strong easterly LLJ off the Ocean. 
 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No 

Boston will even probably go over to rain.

WX/PT

[Allsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Confluence also looked a little weaker. If that can hold I think that’s our only real shot here. The W trough is going to make this want to cut. Also marginal temps anyway as others have pointed out. 

Agreed. The western trough is actually weaker this run but the confluence isn’t as strong which is the issue 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Confluence also looked a little weaker. If that can hold I think that’s our only real shot here. The W trough is going to make this want to cut. Also marginal temps anyway as others have pointed out. 

I thought you want a trough on the west coast to get  a snowstorm here? Does it come down to the exact location of the trough?

[Allsnow]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I thought you want a trough on the west coast to get  a snowstorm here? Does it come down to the exact location of the trough?

You want a ridge 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The trough is more consolidated near the Four Corners. The GFS forecast sounding is likely underestimating the warming near the coast with such a strong easterly LLJ off the Ocean. 
 

But it’s not digging more…

 

 

[bluewave]

Just now, Allsnow said:

But it’s not digging more…

 

 

It doesn’t have to since just having a trough in that location usually leads to the models correcting stronger with Southeast ridge the closer in time we get. 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It doesn’t have to since just having a trough in that location usually leads to the models correcting stronger with Southeast ridge the closer in time we get. 

 

[NEG NAO]

16 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

GFS and CMC are each all rain for coastal areas and the big cities of the northeast. Just not enough or cold enough air.

WX/PT

 

then why does CMC show this ?

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought you want a trough on the west coast to get  a snowstorm here? Does it come down to the exact location of the trough?

The best spot to have the ridge axis for snow here is around MT/Wyoming. The -PNA isn’t helping unless that trough can be progressive enough to boot it east. If we have strong easterly winds off the water that’s another strike. 

[North and West]

From suppression (remember) to rain!

[Wxoutlooksblog]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

then why does CMC show this ?

It looks wrong. 

WX/PT

[Newman]

Big time changes on the GEFS

[mannynyc]

If these trend persist this will be a huge victory for the Canadien model which has been the north solution for days 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said:

It looks wrong. 

WX/PT

explain why please ?

 

[Franklin0529]

Gefs coming way north too 

[Volcanic Winter]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Stronger Southeast ridge this run leading to warmer storm track for the coast. This was expected with the trough in the West. 
 

New run

Old run

 

 

It really is uncanny how often that tends to correct stronger, as you’ve always discussed. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

explain why please ?

 

I wouldn't use snow maps in borderline areas

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, mannynyc said:

If these trend persist this will be a huge victory for the Canadien model which has been the north solution for days 

huh ? compare the Canadian with the GFS at 12Z

[mannynyc]