Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[NEG NAO]

12Z ICON with the classic Raritan River NJ snow/rain line

[Volcanic Winter]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

12Z ICON with the classic Raritan River NJ snow/rain line

Much of that is due to track with this, though, correct? Were that low 40 miles east it would be closer to snow up and down east of 95? Seems like that demarcation often comes down to positioning especially with marginal air. 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Much of that is due to track with this, though, correct? Were that low 40 miles east it would be closer to snow up and down east of 95? Seems like that demarcation often comes down to positioning especially with marginal air. 

yes and as the storm starts pulling away from the coast the rain/snow line moves into central and south jersey also the NE wind that does not come over the warmer water keeps those areas  frozen

[psv88]

15 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

You should hold those thoughts until the S/W is more fully analyzed by the North American RAOB network and the short range models can parse this.  

My thoughts remain the same. East winds for the island when the waters are still in the mid 40s won’t do it. It works for NJ and maybe even the city, but not for the island. In a month it would be a better chance once water temps hit the upper 30s. But an east wind regardless of the exact track spells trouble, unless the storm is suppressed well south in which case we don’t get the QPF. 
 

I do think the island does fine later this winter, but expectations should be kept in check for the island. If I was in NNJ, westchester, etc I would be much more confident of a nice advisory event. 

[North and West]

yes and as the storm starts pulling away from the coast the rain/snow line moves into central and south jersey also the NE wind that does not come over the warmer water keeps those areas  frozen

Nice. February 5, 2001 vibes.


.

[Dark Star]

39 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I agree with the need for objectivity and controlling of one’s emotions, this is a science discussion forum and too easily I see people jump down other’s throats for stating an opinion that runs contrary to their own desires, even if valid and supportable. That I genuinely dislike a lot, and I’m not just talking about our subforum here. I read all three major east forums. 

With that said, MJO is a weenie and lives for this stuff. I can’t and don’t fault him for that, it’s usually innocuous IMO. He can lash out at times but so do others, idk. We’re all here because we love weather and love snow. I enjoy his enthusiasm at times. 

I’m a true weenie too, I live for winter weather. I travel for winter weather, my wife and I spend our precious vacation time and money going to hike in cold places during the winter, the opposite of many. But I do try to keep my emotions checked at the door, because I respect this forum as a place for rational scientific debate and discussion. 

With that said, nobody’s perfect. I could just do without the personal attacks / mocking I see on AWX from time to time. In all cases, it’s uncalled for. Edit: And I’m not talking about the stuff that’s obviously just meant to be taken in jest and isn’t mean spirited. 

I am guilty of coveting your activities...

[Northof78]

Looks like W of GSP and N of 78, good to go for a SECS; right along 95, tight, but probably decent accums of 2-4", once east of the city/LI/beaches less than 1"

[NJwx85]

Looking like the 12z GFS will be less suppressed this run.

[MJO812]

Very amped

[NJwx85]

GFS is a big hit. Heavy snow North of I-78. CAD into the Northern burbs and North Shore. Philly proper is rain.

[NEG NAO]

GFS not that different then ICON

[MJO812]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

GFS not that different then ICON

Interior snowstorm

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Very amped

Newark is 33 degrees in that panel.

[cleetussnow]

great run for metro and esp. N/W.  New England forum will be happy (er).

Edit:  Came too north for Metro - changes to rain.  Jumped the gun.

[NJwx85]

Storm passes just South of LI and we dry slot by 12z Sunday.

[NEG NAO]

The problem on the GFS is the HP is not staying in place allowing the storm to move more north then out to sea

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

great run for metro and esp. N/W.  New England forum will be happy (er).

Edit:  Came too north for Metro - changes to rain.  Jumped the gun.

The only area that gets shafted is the immediate coastline, like the city, South shore of LI and far Eastern NJ.

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Interior snowstorm

Not too far in though

[NJwx85]

6”+ on the GFS for the North and West of 287 crowd.

[bluewave]

Stronger Southeast ridge this run leading to warmer storm track for the coast. This was expected with the trough in the West. 
 

New run

Old run

 

 

[NEG NAO]

12Z CMC storm is stronger then GFS and HP to the north is still there

[Stormlover74]

Cmc and gfs are pretty similar. Just north of Driscoll bridge and nw of 95 6"+ but quickly drops off to nothing 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc and gfs are pretty similar. Just north of Driscoll bridge and nw of 95 6"+ but quickly drops off to nothing 

CMC definitely got colder 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Allsnow said:

CMC definitely got colder 

For sure. 

[mannynyc]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc and gfs are pretty similar. Just north of Driscoll bridge and nw of 95 6"+ but quickly drops off to nothing 

CMC is much better for the coast than the GFS. Low is farther off shore and temps are 3 degrees colder.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

CMC definitely got colder 

[MANDA]

Just now, bluewave said:

Stronger Southeast ridge this run leading to warmer storm track for the coast. This was expected with the trough in the West. 
 

New run

Old run

 

 

Better hope that trend does not persist.  I abandoned suppression solutions yesterday.  Still not convinced even interior does not have mixing issues before all is said and done.  That 50/50 low is the only thing saving the day from a hugger or cutter.  Surface high pressure nice to have but not ideal location by any means and not that cold of an air mass to work with.  We'll see where this heads as guidance rolls in today, tonight and tomorrow.   I'd keep enthusiasm in check for inland areas and as for the coast consider it a win if you can break the lack of 2" streak.

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Stronger Southeast ridge this run leading to warmer storm track for the coast. This was expected with the trough in the West. 
 

New run

Old run

 

 

Confluence is weaker but the trough out west didn’t become stronger 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MANDA said:

Better hope that trend does not persist.  I abandoned suppression solutions yesterday.  Still not convinced even interior does not have mixing issues before all is said and done.  That 50/50 low is the only thing saving the day from a hugger or cutter.  Surface high pressure nice to have but not ideal location by any means and not that cold of an air mass to work with.  We'll see where this heads as guidance rolls in today, tonight and tomorrow.   I'd keep enthusiasm in check for inland areas and as for the coast consider it a win if you can break the lack of 2" streak.

This will have to buck the last minute nw trend and either hold serve or go the other direction 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, psv88 said:

My thoughts remain the same. East winds for the island when the waters are still in the mid 40s won’t do it. It works for NJ and maybe even the city, but not for the island. In a month it would be a better chance once water temps hit the upper 30s. But an east wind regardless of the exact track spells trouble, unless the storm is suppressed well south in which case we don’t get the QPF. 
 

I do think the island does fine later this winter, but expectations should be kept in check for the island. If I was in NNJ, westchester, etc I would be much more confident of a nice advisory event. 

It depends, an east wind will turn the island to rain in February too, this particular track isn't conducive to snow here,

but then you have something like the Millenium storm which was all snow here in SW Nassau in late December, even Long Beach was all snow.