Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

What about the coast?

Too tough for me.  Guess 1-4 for a start.  Just no lock.  May not know til Friday afternoon 

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yes and in NJ there are natural boundaries such as the Raritan River in Northern Middlesex County and this storm has shown model outputs from various models showing that area as the rain snow line

I've always wondered about that, I see the rain snow line is always much closer to the coast even in places south of here than up here.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Too tough for me.  Guess 1-4 for a start.  Just no lock.  May not know til Friday afternoon 

Sounds reasonable

[NEG NAO]

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Too tough for me.  Guess 1-4 for a start.  Just no lock.  May not know til Friday afternoon 

better hope its at least 4 anything under 2 inches will have some folks here saying this is a continuation of last years pattern

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Normally, Union and Middlesex Counties in NJ receive the same type of precip as mid town Manhattan (anticipated debate to follow)...

no debate, I've seen rain/snow maps that indicate that.  and in the summer they are also much hotter because they have a much less influence from the ocean than long island does.

Point being if you want more snow in the winter you have to deal with hotter weather in the summer (because you need less of an ocean influence for both more snow and more heat.)

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

better hope its at least 4 anything under 2 inches will have some folks here saying this is a continuation of last years pattern

Yep, 3 inches is the break even point, anything under 3 inches will easily get washed away by rain and will be insignificant although it will break the 700 day 1" snowfall drought

[USCG RS]

I know it's been said by others, but it bears reiterating:

Cautionary note: The models have consistently exhibited significant forecast discrepancies, even within a 12-hour window of the event, sometimes resulting in variations of approximately ±7 degrees or more. The current atmospheric conditions pose a concern for areas in and around I-95. While it doesn't rule out the possibility, it's worth noting that the high-pressure system extends into the Western Atlantic, making it less favorable for channeling cold air toward the I-95 region. In fact, the setup is conducive to the opposite effect, allowing eastward winds into the coastal areas and bringing uncharacteristically warm air from the ocean onto land. This presents a challenging scenario, particularly for the coastal sections. Just a point to bear in mind.

[NEG NAO]

29 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Normally, Union and Middlesex Counties in NJ receive the same type of precip as mid town Manhattan (anticipated debate to follow)...

Northern Middlesex yes - Middlesex County is large and extends well south into central NJ

[wdrag]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

better hope its at least 4 anything under 2 inches will have some folks here saying this is a continuation of last years pattern

Can’t hope.  Just have to work the ensemble pattern and negate smoothing out the cyclic changes.  No one has promised more than 1 NYC 

[ILoveWinter]

Currently in Cancun and heading back tomorrow, nice surprise to see there is finally something to track! (it's been a few years maybe for me living in the city?). Would be great to see 3 or more inches.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Can’t hope.  Just have to work the ensemble pattern and negate smoothing out the cyclic changes.  No one has promised more than 1 NYC 

except the models ? last night the GFS and Euro and their ENSEMBLES had 6 inches plus and Henry M. has 12 -18 for parts of Northern NJ all the way into my area

 

[wdrag]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Can’t hope.  Just have to work the ensemble pattern and negate smoothing out the cyclic changes.  No one has promised more than 1 NYC 

Negate should read.  Gently 

[Volcanic Winter]

I don’t think the fluctuations / wobbles right now that surprising with how hugely important the HP position / confluence, and SW amplitude are in this setup. I think the general solution is found, but since thermals are walking a tightrope the cutoff between higher snows and lesser snows to no snow will probably bounce around 30+ miles for another 48 hours, I would think. 

If I’m wrong please correct, just how I’m viewing this at present. Still very interesting for the whole metro with the northern tier in a good spot, IMHO. 

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

better hope its at least 4 anything under 2 inches will have some folks here saying this is a continuation of last years pattern

I personally think atm that it will be 1 to 3 for CPK. 

I don't think any of the METS will state it's a continuation of last year's pattern, as the trough was down to BAJA and further west during the Neg NAO periods of last March, last December and two Decembers ago, leading to outright cutters. 

This would be a track and high pressure position issue. As 1970 through 1999 showed, there are many different ways to fail.

[psv88]

Thinking this is a mainly white rain event for the island. Maybe a sloppy inch or so on the north shore and some mangles flakes on the south shore. 
 

we will get our chances later in the winter. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Just now, psv88 said:

Thinking this is a mainly white rain event for the island. Maybe a sloppy inch or so on the north shore and some mangles flakes on the south shore. 
 

we will get our chances later in the winter. 

Yeah I think regardless how this one ends up, the continued activity and look now on guidance going forward looks like we’ll be in a decent spot. So this would be a nice jumpstart / bonus were it to work out. We’ll see.

[Allsnow]

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Thinking this is a mainly white rain event for the island. Maybe a sloppy inch or so on the north shore and some mangles flakes on the south shore. 
 

we will get our chances later in the winter. 

It's amazing how the emotions are while tracking a storm. Just the other day many people thought this was going to miss to the south.

[Heisy]

 

I posted days ago the shortwave reminded me over this event. We had a massive 50/50 for that one though. I have a bad feeling about 12z runs that I can’t shake :/ see what happens


.

[NJwx85]

I’m a little surprised with how consistent the models have been this far out with the potential for this weekend. There’s a well positioned high and blocking which obviously opens the door for suppression. It looks like the heaviest snow will be interior Eastern PA and the mountains NW of DC and BWI. The 00z Euro is less suppressed looking than the GFS. Looks like there will be a sharp cut off either way around I-84.

[Big Jims Videos]

First snow in two years and I'm scheduled to cover an event at the PPL Allentown PA arena  Friday night and Saturday night - I don't think driving from Allentown PA to Point Beach NJ Saturday at 11 pm will work.  Everything I am seeing puts LV in the bullseye this far out. 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I posted days ago the shortwave reminded me over this event. We had a massive 50/50 for that one though. I have a bad feeling about 12z runs that I can’t shake :/ see what happens


.

Congrats tombo or Mitch? 

[psv88]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's amazing how the emotions are while tracking a storm. Just the other day many people thought this was going to miss to the south.

Not sure how it’s emotions at all? People are analyzing models and synoptic features. Emotions should never be involved in forecasting weather. Need to be objective and that’s it. Weenies such as yourself are almost never objective so maybe you are referring to yourself. 

[Volcanic Winter]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Not sure how it’s emotions at all? People are analyzing models and synoptic features. Emotions should never be involved in forecasting weather. Need to be objective and that’s it. Weenies such as yourself are almost never objective so maybe you are referring to yourself. 

I agree with the need for objectivity and controlling of one’s emotions, this is a science discussion forum and too easily I see people jump down other’s throats for stating an opinion that runs contrary to their own desires, even if valid and supportable. That I genuinely dislike a lot, and I’m not just talking about our subforum here. I read all three major east forums. 

With that said, MJO is a weenie and lives for this stuff. I can’t and don’t fault him for that, it’s usually innocuous IMO. He can lash out at times but so do others, idk. We’re all here because we love weather and love snow. I enjoy his enthusiasm at times. 

I’m a true weenie too, I live for winter weather. I travel for winter weather, my wife and I spend our precious vacation time and money going to hike in cold places during the winter, the opposite of many. But I do try to keep my emotions checked at the door, because I respect this forum as a place for rational scientific debate and discussion. 

With that said, nobody’s perfect. I could just do without the personal attacks / mocking I see on AWX from time to time. In all cases, it’s uncalled for. Edit: And I’m not talking about the stuff that’s obviously just meant to be taken in jest and isn’t mean spirited. 

[Tatamy]

12 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

First snow in two years and I'm scheduled to cover an event at the PPL Allentown PA arena  Friday night and Saturday night - I don't think driving from Allentown PA to Point Beach NJ Saturday at 11 pm will work.  Everything I am seeing puts LV in the bullseye this far out. 

That will be dependent on snowfall rates.  Penndot and NJDOT are usually pretty good with pre-treating the roads with brine and then salting during the event.  These treatments will keep the roads mainly wet with temperatures as low as the mid 20’s.

[Big Jims Videos]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

That will be dependent on snowfall rates.  Penndot and NJDOT are usually pretty good with pre-treating the roads with brine and then salting during the event.  These treatments will keep the roads mainly wet with temperatures as low as the mid 20’s.

I lived in NEPA from 2007-2014 and it's night and day the difference between NJ and PA road coverage.  Advantage to NJ by far.  Overnight, darkness, heavier rates, I'm definitely concerned.  

[vegan_edible]

t-minus ~45 mins until the 12z suites start rolling in. lets see how we do

[NJwx85]

Snow ratios with this storm will be in the 6 or 8:1 range outside of the most intense banding. 

[Tatamy]

43 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Thinking this is a mainly white rain event for the island. Maybe a sloppy inch or so on the north shore and some mangles flakes on the south shore. 
 

we will get our chances later in the winter. 

You should hold those thoughts until the S/W is more fully analyzed by the North American RAOB network and the short range models can parse this.  

[SnowGoose69]

I am still slightly more worried about a miss than I am this coming too far NW.  I think its highly likely all the snow droughts at the stations end though they may end with only like 1 inch if we end up with the more west track close to us