Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[kingbaus]

GFS has the primary OV low still.

[Rjay]

Gfs is def more amped up this run

[kingbaus]

Looking warm I think.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, kingbaus said:

Looking warm I think.

Initially yes then the low jumps east and saves us

[MJO812]

[Rjay]

[Stormlover74]

Cmc still a hugger but better than 12z...well slightly anyway

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc still a hugger but better than 12z

It's also not consolidated. 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc still a hugger but better than 12z

[RU848789]

So, what do we have to do to make this happen?  Damn this looks nice, even if it's 5+ days out.  

[Stormlover74]

It's basically over by 10am but starts much earlier

[NEG NAO]

The HP is weaker on the CMC and slightly north of the GFS 1027 vs. 1032

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

The HP is weaker on the CMC and slightly north of the GFS 1027 vs. 1032

Cmc was an improvement from 12z but still too warm

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's basically over by 10am but starts much earlier

Yep starts Saturday evening now

[Volcanic Winter]

Happy some runs are able to get good snows down to me, I'm still not letting myself expect anything but it at least appears to be a possibility.

Really happy overall that this seems to be happening for the forum / region in general. It's very needed, I think.

[kingbaus]

Good run overall.

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Happy some runs are able to get good snows down to me, I'm still not letting myself expect anything but it at least appears to be a possibility.

Really happy overall that this seems to be happening for the forum / region in general. It's very needed, I think.

The most important players in this setup are the HP in southeast Canada and the 50/50 IMO - the HP has to be at least 1030 and stay anchored and not weaken

[Stormlover74]

Ukie not out yet on pivotal but the sideways maps show it inland

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie not out yet on pivotal but the sideways maps show it inland

Yep very inland

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie not out yet on pivotal but the sideways maps show it inland

where is the HP and the strength ?

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even as there remains considerable uncertainty, it is unlikely that Allentown will see 12"-18" of snow. The potential exists for 6"-12" if things come together.

Select Data:

1/2 0z NBE: 6.2" (the 2z increased the snowfall to 9.0")

1/1 12z EPS Members: 12" or more: 20%; 18" or more: 2%

WPC Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index for Major Impact: < 5% (around 20% for a moderate impact)

Oh please! It is not 1996.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

where is the HP and the strength ?

 

No idea

[NEG NAO]

I find this hard to believe I will get 16 inches

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Of course you do

Most of ours storms lately do this

[Wxoutlooksblog]

With regards to the micro analysis of the HP to the north. The earlier maps (yesterday and the day before) showed it better locked in place. However please note. This is still marginally cold enough air and its penetration south at all levels is highly questionable. It's going to have to be nearly perfect for this to come together as a primarily snow event for coastal sections and I think we might be on the verge of losing that possibility. On the CMC it's gone. On the GFS it's almost gone.

WX/PT

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Most of ours storms lately do this

It usually happens but every storm is different. 

[MJO812]

Gefs looks good

[Stormlover74]

Ukie manages to still bring a few inches of snow well north and west of 95

[Tatamy]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep very inland

It’s actually a better run for much of NW NJ and SE NY than the 12z run.  

[Albedoman]

3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

With regards to the micro analysis of the HP to the north. The earlier maps (yesterday and the day before) showed it better locked in place. However please note. This is still marginally cold enough air and its penetration south at all levels is highly questionable. It's going to have to be nearly perfect for this to come together as a primarily snow event for coastal sections and I think we might be on the verge of losing that possibility.

WX/PT

lets wait for the NAM run on Wed evening. The potential for accumulating snow is there  for sure but WSW criteria will be hard to achieve even in Allentown. We first want to get a better picture for the exact transfer location (sweetspot) nd HP energy in Quebec. The we can talk how much.  48 hours from now will tell us everything on the NAM