Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

Very concerning for those in NNJ who are affected by river flooding.

It's amazing how many rain  storms in a row have had the Morris county jackpot 

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ. This lower elevation part 0.3” snow. Now sleet snow mix. All treated surfaces wet but home pavements etc snow covered and 31F

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Very concerning for those in NNJ who are affected by river flooding.  Street and highway (urban flooding) is one thing but when a river overflows into your house that is something else.  Feel bad for those affected.  Stress level must be through the roof.  Me personally if I went through it once I'd be out of there.

Definitely not a good scenario. Hopefully, precipitation amounts will be less than modeled, but the guidance is concerning.

[gravitylover]

35/33/SE7 with flurries 

[kat5hurricane]

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Last time I had 70 mile per hour gusts was August of 2020 and I had no power for ten days until an out of state power crew brought us a new pole. 

Isaias. That storm was the real deal, most damage in my area outside of Sandy.

You don't see too many High Wind Warnings with generally conservative services calling for 50-65 mph gusts so this should be taken seriously.

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

Isaias. That storm was the real deal, most damage in my area outside of Sandy.

You don't see too many High Wind Warnings with generally conservative services calling for 50-65 mph gusts so this should be taken seriously.

GFS modeling 70 mph on LI overnight. That’s power outage guarantee. Where? Who knows. Last time it happened I had no power for ten days but a few blocks down was fine 

[wdrag]

Albany GA 61 KYT, Dunkirk NY on L Erie 55 kt. 

 

[wdrag]

MT Pocono 1" new snow. Power outages s central pa related to 5-6" new wet snow there. 

90 MPH wind gusts ridges. here's a sampler.

[wdrag]

Suggest taking wind seriously from Cape May NJ to JFK eastward with 45-55 MPH NYC, but Cape May to southern LI 60 MPH + likely.  best time s NJ near 7PM  up to NYC -LI mid-3A.  I think precautions are wise.  I just posted the MINIMUM gust potential from an 8 member SPC High Res model. Its imperfect. I dont want to look at the worst but 75 MPH is not impossible on LI. Minimum: Purple is 60, dark brown 55, ;light brown 50 and this is a snapshot of wind gusts near 1AM.  

 

The HRRR and SPC HREF gin gusts tend to be used. by firewater folks. High res data.  Within 24 hours...need to pay attention. to this guidance. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Suggest taking wind seriously from Cape May NJ to JFK eastward with 45-55 MPH NYC, but Cape May to southern LI 60 MPH + likely.  best time s NJ near 7PM  up to NYC -LI mid-3A.  I think precautions are wise.  I just posted the MINIMUM gust potential from an 8 member SPC High Res model. Its imperfect. I dont want to look at the worst but 75 MPH is not impossible on LI. Minimum: Purple is 60, dark brown 55, ;light brown 50 and this is a snapshot of wind gusts near 1AM.  

 

The HRRR and SPC HREF gin gusts tend to be used. by firewater folks. High res data.  Within 24 hours...need to pay attention. to this guidance. 

I’m within that pink. Seems power outages in this area will be a guarantee 

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ light rain-sleet 0.4" total snow sleet at 1250PM. 

HRRRX wind guidance. 60 kt is modeled for LI...the 50-60 KT NJT, not sure what that is but it could be a squall line damaging puff.  

[wdrag]

7 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’m within that pink. Seems power outages in this area will be a guarantee   Cant guarantee high end but it think it likely for s LI and coastal NJ.  we'll know by dawn Wednesday whether you can post. 

[weathermedic]

27 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Albany GA 61 KYT, Dunkirk NY on L Erie 55 kt. 

 

Empty trailer ban on the NYS Thruway (I-90) with at least one tractor trailer blown over between exits 59-60 earlier this morning.

[wdrag]

One of the problems with this storm... damage so widespread that support crews are needed not in only in one concentrated area but spread out. At least 10,000 meters out in each of the states of WA/OR, then from Texas-KS east with over 100,000 meters out in FL and I think fairly extensive power outages headed for western NYS and up the USA east coast. Hoping we luck out here in slightly c cooler nw NJ. But ridges in the Poconos might get surprise big burst early tonight. 

[wdrag]

Just now, wdrag said:

One of the problems with this storm... damage so widespread that support crews are needed not in only in one concentrated area but spread out. At least 10,000 meters out in each of the states of WA/OR, then from Texas-KS east with over 100,000 meters out in FL and I think fairly extensive power outages headed for western NYS and up the USA east coast. Hoping we luck out here in slightly c cooler nw NJ. But ridges in the Poconos might get surprise big burst early tonight. 

Now Oregon less than 10,000 meters out. but the idea above holds. 

[guinness77]

Winds from the southeast already picking up a bit when I left earlier for work, just as forecasted. Secured anything I could. I’m still kinda flabbergasted a storm like this hits us early-to-mid January but this is becoming the new normal around here. Im thinking these 65-70mph gusts will materialize around me later. 
 

Good luck, everyone. 

[snywx]

1” of new snow here 

It’s gonna get real nasty tonight 

[lee59]

ESE wind gusting to 27mph here. Picking up all morning

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

57 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Suggest taking wind seriously from Cape May NJ to JFK eastward with 45-55 MPH NYC, but Cape May to southern LI 60 MPH + likely.  best time s NJ near 7PM  up to NYC -LI mid-3A.  I think precautions are wise.  I just posted the MINIMUM gust potential from an 8 member SPC High Res model. Its imperfect. I dont want to look at the worst but 75 MPH is not impossible on LI. Minimum: Purple is 60, dark brown 55, ;light brown 50 and this is a snapshot of wind gusts near 1AM.  

 

The HRRR and SPC HREF gin gusts tend to be used. by firewater folks. High res data.  Within 24 hours...need to pay attention. to this guidance. 

That’s another monster fetch you just don’t see on the east coast. Major to extreme beach erosion is a lock, as tides are higher than the last event and this looks stronger. 

[TriPol]

I just don't understand where alll this rain is going to go go to. We've had 2-4 inch rainstorms almost every week since September. I cannot imagine getting yet another storm like this. Yes, the winds are going to be bad and there will be Hurricane Gloria level power outages on LI, but I'm extremely concerned about the flooding potential with this, especially since it's going to melt all of the snowfall from the past week. I just don't understand how this isn't a bigger story.

[jm1220]

Winds picking up in Long Beach. 

[Cfa]

Getting some gusts in these showers in Farmingdale.

[lee59]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

I just don't understand where alll this rain is going to go go to. We've had 2-4 inch rainstorms almost every week since September. I cannot imagine getting yet another storm like this. Yes, the winds are going to be bad and there will be Hurricane Gloria level power outages on LI, but I'm extremely concerned about the flooding potential with this, especially since it's going to melt all of the snowfall from the past week. I just don't understand how this isn't a bigger story.

I would be shocked if there is hurricane Gloria level power outages on Long Island.

[NJwx85]

Just now, TriPol said:

I just don't understand where alll this rain is going to go go to. We've had 2-4 inch rainstorms almost every week since September. I cannot imagine getting yet another storm like this. Yes, the winds are going to be bad and there will be Hurricane Gloria level power outages on LI, but I'm extremely concerned about the flooding potential with this, especially since it's going to melt all of the snowfall from the past week. I just don't understand how this isn't a bigger story.

The NWS has flood watches, wind advisories and high wind warnings over the entire region. They have come out with very strong wording. Not sure what much else can be done.

There were some mets on twitter yesterday downplaying the wind threat. Sending mixed messages even though you might disagree with the NWS is not great in my opinion and partially why the general public has become numb to warnings.

[hooralph]

8 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I just don't understand where alll this rain is going to go go to. We've had 2-4 inch rainstorms almost every week since September. I cannot imagine getting yet another storm like this. Yes, the winds are going to be bad and there will be Hurricane Gloria level power outages on LI, but I'm extremely concerned about the flooding potential with this, especially since it's going to melt all of the snowfall from the past week. I just don't understand how this isn't a bigger story.

NJ declared a state of emergency... the NYC news channels led with the flooding risk last night on the news. Not sure what's missing?

[wdrag]

21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The NWS has flood watches, wind advisories and high wind warnings over the entire region. They have come out with very strong wording. Not sure what much else can be done.

There were some mets on twitter yesterday downplaying the wind threat. Sending mixed messages even though you might disagree with the NWS is not great in my opinion and partially why the general public has become numb to warnings.

Agree 100%. This is a time one voice,. Dissent won't be in anyone favor.  Prepare to mitigate if the power goes out or you develop roof leaks-cellar flooding or live next to a flooded waterway. 

[gravitylover]

24 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I just don't understand where alll this rain is going to go go to. We've had 2-4 inch rainstorms almost every week since September. I cannot imagine getting yet another storm like this. Yes, the winds are going to be bad and there will be Hurricane Gloria level power outages on LI, but I'm extremely concerned about the flooding potential with this, especially since it's going to melt all of the snowfall from the past week. I just don't understand how this isn't a bigger story.

My wife told me to stop with the doom and gloom. She thinks everything she's seen about this is totally overblown. She said 'they're always wrong about the wind'. Then a little later she asked if we have gas for the generator . 

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

My wife told me to stop with the doom and gloom. She thinks everything she's seen about this is totally overblown. She said 'they're always wrong about the wind'. Then a little later she asked if we have gas for the generator . 

Most of the time we have a strong inversion here which prevents the winds from mixing down. That's what sets this even aside from others. 

We had a really intense wind event in late March of 2010 which was a rain storm but the 500mb low passed South and East of us. This is a much different setup synoptically so not much of a comparison but I think impacts could be similar. We had such a snowy February that year that there was still some snowpack in the hills and it was the beginning of a very active pattern for flooding that really didn't stop until 2013.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

My wife told me to stop with the doom and gloom. She thinks everything she's seen about this is totally overblown. She said 'they're always wrong about the wind'. Then a little later she asked if we have gas for the generator . 

lol

[wdrag]

Dunkirk NY 64 Kt.  Latrobe PA 57 kt.  Erie 55kT. 

 

Power outages at 2PM.