Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[the_other_guy]

I just wanna throw this out there to temper some of the hysteria with the winds.

 

weather to us is literally life and death in aviation. here are the aviation forecasts for JFK and Islip over the next 24 hours. as you can see, there’s nothing anywhere near 75 mph even if you convert knots to MPH.

Now, Im not saying on the immediate coast there aren’t going be higher gusts and sustained winds.

But for the vast majority of the people in this forum, this will be heavy rain with winds around 30-50 miles an hour. And even that is the high end.

just wanted to throw this government forecast for the two coastal airports in our area out there.

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I just wanna throw this out there to temper some of the hysteria with the winds.

 

weather to us is literally life and death in aviation. here are the aviation forecasts for JFK and Islip over the next 24 hours. as you can see, there’s nothing anywhere near 75 mph even if you convert knots to MPH.

Now, Im not saying on the immediate coast there aren’t going be higher gusts and sustained winds.

But for the vast majority of the people in this forum, this will be heavy rain with winds around 30-50 miles an hour. And even that is the high end.

just wanted to throw this government forecast for the two coastal airports in our area out there.

Upton aviation calling for 40kt increasing to 50kt for city and coast 

Light and vrb winds increasing out of the SE this mrng. Gusts
up to 40 kt possible toward 00Z, with city and coastal terminals
having gusts up to 50 kt towards 04-06z. LLWS develops towards
the eve push and continues overnight. Winds become wly around
12-14Z Wed.

 

[qg_omega]

11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I just wanna throw this out there to temper some of the hysteria with the winds.

 

weather to us is literally life and death in aviation. here are the aviation forecasts for JFK and Islip over the next 24 hours. as you can see, there’s nothing anywhere near 75 mph even if you convert knots to MPH.

Now, Im not saying on the immediate coast there aren’t going be higher gusts and sustained winds.

But for the vast majority of the people in this forum, this will be heavy rain with winds around 30-50 miles an hour. And even that is the high end.

just wanted to throw this government forecast for the two coastal airports in our area out there.

This doesn’t help

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I just wanna throw this out there to temper some of the hysteria with the winds.

 

weather to us is literally life and death in aviation. here are the aviation forecasts for JFK and Islip over the next 24 hours. as you can see, there’s nothing anywhere near 75 mph even if you convert knots to MPH.

Now, Im not saying on the immediate coast there aren’t going be higher gusts and sustained winds.

But for the vast majority of the people in this forum, this will be heavy rain with winds around 30-50 miles an hour. And even that is the high end.

just wanted to throw this government forecast for the two coastal airports in our area out there.

I live near JFK and have experienced 75 mph gusts a few times and while really scary, nothing got destroyed.  The most I would expect is a short term power outage.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

tri-state area snowfall totals.

wow where did that report of 1.7" come from?

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, justinj said:

I had close to 1.5” in middle island. Didn’t have much melting on the grass today either 

You must be near that report of 1.7" lol

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, guinness77 said:

lol, yep. Got the same exact txt. Saw 75mph and was like wtf 

Could go to Mt. Washington…100-110 sustained with 140mph gusts on Wednesday night. 

what a great way to see the Northern Lights ;-)

[JustinRP37]

33 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I just wanna throw this out there to temper some of the hysteria with the winds.

 

weather to us is literally life and death in aviation. here are the aviation forecasts for JFK and Islip over the next 24 hours. as you can see, there’s nothing anywhere near 75 mph even if you convert knots to MPH.

Now, Im not saying on the immediate coast there aren’t going be higher gusts and sustained winds.

But for the vast majority of the people in this forum, this will be heavy rain with winds around 30-50 miles an hour. And even that is the high end.

just wanted to throw this government forecast for the two coastal airports in our area out there.

It's almost like hysteria drive clicks which drives $$$. Meanwhile accurate forecasting drives revenue in aviation. Point being, I trust your numbers over anything I read online for winds because when they get your forecast wrong people can potentially die.

[justinj]

[Cheticus]

What is the timing on winds?  I'm planning on going to the Knicks game tonight and taking LIRR.

[psv88]

Upton has never gone to 70 in a high wind warning as long as I can remember.  Very concerning. 
 

70 mph winds will bring widespread damage to the island and the boros, Jersey shore. Whoever says we can expect 30 mph winds is a fool. 

[psv88]

50 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I just wanna throw this out there to temper some of the hysteria with the winds.

 

weather to us is literally life and death in aviation. here are the aviation forecasts for JFK and Islip over the next 24 hours. as you can see, there’s nothing anywhere near 75 mph even if you convert knots to MPH.

Now, Im not saying on the immediate coast there aren’t going be higher gusts and sustained winds.

But for the vast majority of the people in this forum, this will be heavy rain with winds around 30-50 miles an hour. And even that is the high end.

just wanted to throw this government forecast for the two coastal airports in our area out there.

I’m going with Walt who says 50-65 and the other pros. Walt has been on this threat for a week and has an entire career in forecasting for the NwS. 

[weathermedic]

12 minutes ago, Cheticus said:

What is the timing on winds?  I'm planning on going to the Knicks game tonight and taking LIRR.

From Upton:

The High Wind Warning has been expanded to include the Bronx and Manhattan from 6 PM tonight to 6 AM tomorrow. Southeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 65 mph are expected inland, with 25 to 35 mph winds and gusts as high as 70 mph anticipated along the coast. The period of strongest winds will be from about 9 PM to 3 AM.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Last time I had 70 mile per hour gusts was August of 2020 and I had no power for ten days until an out of state power crew brought us a new pole. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

14 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

From Upton:

The High Wind Warning has been expanded to include the Bronx and Manhattan from 6 PM tonight to 6 AM tomorrow. Southeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 65 mph are expected inland, with 25 to 35 mph winds and gusts as high as 70 mph anticipated along the coast. The period of strongest winds will be from about 9 PM to 3 AM.

I’ll never forget being on the Long Beach boardwalk during March 10. Legit 70mph gusts will throw you around. I’m sure there was some intensity increase because of the buildings but it was unforgettable experience. Only other times I experienced winds of that magnitude were December 92 and of course sandy. I’m thinking more like 60mph here.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Last time I had 70 mile per hour gusts was August of 2020 and I had no power for ten days until an out of state power crew brought us a new pole. 

Hoping for our sakes that’s overdone. Definitely don’t want to deal with no power. In any case I’m charging up the appliances today. 

Wish for once I was in central PA for winter weather. A poster near Altoona has 5” already this morning. 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’ll never forget being on the Long Beach boardwalk during March 10. Legit 70mph gusts will throw you around. I’m sure there was some intensity increase because of the buildings but it was unforgettable experience. Only other times I experienced winds of that magnitude were December 92 and of course sandy. I’m thinking more like 60mph here.

Even 60 mph gusts will do some damage in these parts

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Hoping for our sakes that’s overdone. Definitely don’t want to deal with no power. In any case I’m charging up the appliances today. 

Wish for once I was in central PA for winter weather. A poster near Altoona has 5” already this morning. 

After August of 2020 I had a generator plug installed outside and got a 5000 watt to handle the oil burner and appliances. I hope I don’t have to get it out. 

[ForestHillWx]

32/27 here. Might have an outside chance at a flake or two before the rains come. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

After August of 2020 I had a generator plug installed outside and got a 5000 watt to handle the oil burner and appliances. I hope I don’t have to get it out. 

80 mph in a tropical storm right?

[WestBabylonWeather]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

80 mph in a tropical storm right?

Yea August of 2020 was the tropical storm. I think we hit 70/80 mph gusts trees were down everywhere. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Yea August of 2020 was the tropical storm. I think we hit 70/80 mph gusts trees were down everywhere. 

Isaias. Farmingdale hit 78mph in that one. Tree damage was horrible in my area too. In any case this shouldn’t be as bad but again hopefully we can get something to limit the high gusts since 65-70mph is the threshold for where really widespread problems start. 

[NJwx85]

Shameful to see some here downplaying the threat and contradicting the NWS. The warnings are warranted. The flow at the surface will be off the ocean which will help funnel the stronger winds into the region. Strong convection will help to mix down stronger winds. Lack of inversion is key here. 3k NAM has 125kts at 850mb along the NJ coast at 06z.

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Isaias. Farmingdale hit 78mph in that one. Tree damage was horrible in my area too. In any case this shouldn’t be as bad but again hopefully we can get something to limit the high gusts since 65-70mph is the threshold for where really widespread problems start. 

Couldn’t get down my block. Neighbors tree fell across the road and it sat for days. Took power pole down with it. 
 

I hope you’re right cause like you said around 70 is when the things start to happen. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

august 2020. Ten days of this crap
 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Isaias. Farmingdale hit 78mph in that one. Tree damage was horrible in my area too. In any case this shouldn’t be as bad but again hopefully we can get something to limit the high gusts since 65-70mph is the threshold for where really widespread problems start. 

it was stronger than either December 1992 or that March 2010 noreaster!

December 1992 caused the most damage because of duration though.

August 2020 ranks right below Sandy in terms of wind intensity for us.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

august 2020. Ten days of this crap
 

it was like that in the Rockaways too and tree damage wasn't cleaned up for a long time.

[weathermedic]

The good thing about high winds in the winter months is that most of the trees do not have leaves on them so there isn't as much resistance.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, weathermedic said:

The only thing good about high winds in the winter months is that most of the trees do not have leaves on them so there isn't as much resistance.

Great point 

[NJwx85]

Especially on LI, there will be about a 6 hour period of sustained low end TS force winds with potential for much higher gusts. 06z GFS 925mb winds are in excess of 80kts on the East end late tonight.