Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is that what 1-2 indicates then?

Those positive numbers indicate that at least 10% of ensemble members are showing an extreme event. The higher the number, the more extreme the event e.g., 2 is more extreme than 1.

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

@donsutherland1 

just went to ani ramen in larchmont, crazy once you get past the hutch on 125 the snow amount just plummets. wild gradient. fingers crossed next snow we get the mamo/larchmont crew gets some!

Once one get east of the Hutchinson River Parkway, snowfall amounts fell off sharply. They were even less once once reached the Long Island Sound.

[WestBabylonWeather]

I don’t want to downplay anything. But rain and wind is like playing the same movie over and over on Long Island. We will survive lol. 

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yea I don't see what's funny

anything less than 3 inches is insignificant.

 

[psv88]

Setauket area reported 1.2”, again showing that area as the snowiest on the island. Upton came in with an even inch. That area always finds a way to get the max on LI 

[justinj]

49 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I don’t want to downplay anything. But rain and wind is like playing the same movie over and over on Long Island. We will survive lol. 

Yeah not worried except for the wind again. Lots of trees surrounding my hosue

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Boston 1.9 haha

They ended with over 3 and it's still snowing there but won't amount to much. The CCB blossomed in time for them and the cold air came down. Many more ways for them to get snow. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

They ended with over 3 and it's still snowing there but won't amount to much. The CCB blossomed in time for them and the cold air came down. Many more ways for them to get snow. 

That’s it 3? I had 2 haha 

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Setauket area reported 1.2”, again showing that area as the snowiest on the island. Upton came in with an even inch. That area always finds a way to get the max on LI 

Here it's patchy coverage on grass left. Would've been a nice scene earlier but I didn't miss much. Hopefully later in the month are better chances. 

[jm1220]

Just now, Allsnow said:

That’s it 3? I had 2 haha 

According to the NE forum they had 3.3". If it's still snowing there it may end up close to 4". The WAA part busted from the easterly wind issues but they caught the blossoming CCB which happened too late for us. Not the 10 or 12" some models had and less than the warning event they were supposed to get but something half decent still salvaged. 

[Albedoman]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

So tomorrow morning we'll get the thread title updated to include the OBS for storm 2, add a two day CoCoRahS total and believe it or not, I think there will be some reports of snow and sleet in NJ, NYS/EPA and se NYS/CT midday Tuesday as the system begins.  Not much more that I can add regarding rain/wind and its impacts. 

Walt, I am at a loss. Many posters have no clue what will be upon them Wed morning. 45-60 mph winds with 3-4 inches of rain over a 6-12+ inch snow pack in NE  and EPA/NJ. I really hope the flooding is curtailed but I have never seen the ground as saturated as it is right now in my 45 years living in the NE US. Posters discussing about 1- 2 inch snows in the major cities will be the least of their worries. I will make the same comparison as this storm being like Issac but not quite as bad as Sandy. I am sure they all remember those storms.  The big difference will be the high sustainable SE winds over super supersaturated soils causing wind thrown trees everywhere. The trees are not used to blowing in that direction in the winter, thus their root structure is susceptible to be pulled out of the ground easily too. You add all the diseased ash trees weakened over the last few years from the ash borer in eastern PA and NJ and you have one hell of a down tree problem. Furthermore, the stormwater basins will not absorb any water as they do in the summer as the soils in these basins are clay lined/semi frozen  and saturated so they will fill quickly and runoff into the creeks and rivers quickly too. Totally different stormwater reactions and output  from a typical summer storm.  This storm event might as well be considered a tropical winter storm event that has the possibility of  t- storms with straight line wind squall lines and if you add the existing snow melt on saturated grounds will be like receiving 5-6+ inches of rain in a tropical storm.  As I said before, this event may not reach the magnitude of the flood of 96, but it will be close. I am not trying be a debbie downer but a realist. This scenario unfolding  is not a joking matter over who gets the most snow. The media should be playing this situation up not worrying when the snow plow comes by your street. Its a shame because I will see many posters post how bad the flooding will be on Wednesday . I just hope they get prepared. 

[jm1220]

And yes I would definitely be concerned about major flooding N/W of the city where there was significant snow and now 2"+ rain with roaring southerly winds on Tue, with ground already saturated. That's why honestly it's a blessing in disguise for those of us that didn't get much snow. The SE winds will also upslope in some of those same areas, enhancing the rain amounts.  

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

According to the NE forum they had 3.3". If it's still snowing there it may end up close to 4". The WAA part busted from the easterly wind issues but they caught the blossoming CCB which happened too late for us. Not the 10 or 12" some models had and less than the warning event they were supposed to get but something half decent still salvaged. 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Bc you're a mets fan 

That don't mean anything . They still had more snow than many of us in the metro area. 

[MJO812]

Nam has 70 mph gusts along the coast. Overdone ?

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Nam has 70 mph gusts along the coast. Overdone ?

55-60 seems like a better bet

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

55-60 seems like a better bet

3k Nam has gusts near 100 for NYC lol

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Yep, 3.1" as of 7pm. Maybe they added a few tenths onto it. 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

55-60 seems like a better bet

55 is not really a big deal for the island anymore. The last event had numerous gusts to 55 with soaked ground and there were only minimal impacts. Once gusts hit 60 things go down hill fast, but I am skeptical that occurs away from the beaches and ridge tops 

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

55-60 seems like a better bet

The LLJ is extremely powerful and the Nam is essentially a big squall line so I expect thunder.

Winds aloft are extremely powerful and I could see gusts that high pending mixing. 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

55 is not really a big deal for the island anymore. The last event had numerous gusts to 55 with soaked ground and there were only minimal impacts. Once gusts hit 60 things go down hill fast, but I am skeptical that occurs away from the beaches and ridge tops 

Coastal flooding will be a big concern

[hudsonvalley21]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And yes I would definitely be concerned about major flooding N/W of the city where there was significant snow and now 2"+ rain with roaring southerly winds on Tue, with ground already saturated. That's why honestly it's a blessing in disguise for those of us that didn't get much snow. The SE winds will also upslope in some of those same areas, enhancing the rain amounts.  

Had around 9” of snow that has compacted down to 5” so far. What also could cause an issue is the bottom of the snowpack is 2” inches of slush due to some melt and the water not being absorbed into the saturated ground. Low temperature in the teens Monday night will freeze the slush so  that will also increase the runoff along with the heavy rain and rising temperatures melting the existing snow. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Coastal flooding will be a big concern

Getting close to new moon so the lunar tides will probably enhance the flooding. Low tide at Jones Inlet is 11:46pm on Tue which is around when the worst of the SE winds might be, so we may luck out again with the worst impact at low tide. The 5:47pm Tue high tide may have the worst flooding but hopefully that's before the worst of the storm.

[hudsonvalley21]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam has 70 mph gusts along the coast. Overdone ?

Interesting. Also the southeasterly winds moving up the Hudson River will be increased with the mountain areas such as West Point. Bridge travels across the river areas could be hazardous.

[hudsonvalley21]

A section of Upton’s AFD
 

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Key Points*

* A significant storm system will impact the region Tuesday
  night into Wednesday.

* Heavy rain, and river and coastal flooding are increasingly
  likely with this system. See hydrology section below.

* Strong winds with the potential for 45 to 60 mph gusts, highest
  along the coast, Tuesday night into early Wednesday are also
  possible.

A major storm system will impact the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday with heavy rain and both river and coastal flooding.
Models have been in good overall agreement for sometime now in
taking a strengthening low northward across the Midwest and
Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night, sending a strong
frontal system into the region. Deep-layered lift with the
potential for record breaking PWAT values (1.25-1.40"), is
setting the stage for heavy rainfall to overspread the area
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates for about a 6-h
timeframe will be between 0.25 to 0.50 inches, with locally
higher rates possible. This will result in a widespread 2 to 4
inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts. A strong SE flow
will likely enhance orographic lift for areas west of NYC up
into portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT. NBM
probabilities for greater than 2 inches are near 100 percent
with much of the area greater than 50 percent for exceeding 3
inches. In addition, snowpack across portions of the area may
include up to an inch liquid equivalent. This combined with
saturated soils, high streamflow, and low FFG, points to the
greatest potential of widespread flooding across NE NJ and the
Lower Hudson Valley. WPC also has placed this area under a
Moderate Risk of exceeding flash flood guidance. Many of the
faster responding streams and rivers across this area will
likely go into flood with these forecast rainfall amounts.
Several river forecast points are also forecast to reach
moderate benchmarks. Thus, a Flood Watch is in effect for these
areas. There will likely be refinement and expansion of these
areas in coming days. The heaviest rains will then exit the area
by daybreak Wednesday with some lingering rain possible as the
upper low/trough move through the area.

Another potential hazard will be high winds, especially along
the coasts with SE gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible. A high wind
watch has been issued for LI and may very well need to be expanded
to the CT coast in later forecasts. Elsewhere, Wind Advisory
level winds are possible elsewhere. At this time, used a blend
of the NBM and NBMexp which seemed to best represent the wind
and gust potential based on model soundings.

 

[Santa Claus]

i love global warming, over the last couple years i take a drink every time i read “record breaking PWATs” in an AFD, really hoping the hospital has a generator and my liver transplant on wednesday doesn’t get cancelled

[SnoSki14]

If we see squalls on Tuesday night that are able to mix down winds aloft then wow. 

Nam showing ridiculous gust potential well inland. 3K is even crazier. 

[wdrag]

I agree with albedoman post.  I'll be checking my drains today, getting a pool pump out with a hose for extricating water Tuesday night if this comes to pass.  I won't be surprised at a gravity wave that will modulate the heaviest rain zones but also assist wind damage.  The idea, life will have to adjust Tuesday night Wednesday.  

Added a graphic of ensemble predictions of flooding up in our area.   That's just the NWS flood forecast points.  ALWAYS...this is predicated on the ensemble anticipated rainfall-snowmelt.  That ensemble rainfall is 2.5".  Note if another inch occurs next Friday night-Saturday the Passaic at Pone Brook would be in moderate or major flood through next weekend. Again, this is my own take on the modeling and not a NWS warning.  If the rain is less, it's not as dire.

[wdrag]

Tuesday Noon... suspect we'll see a little sleet melting for an hour PHL-NYC.  Extreme nw NJ-Poconos-Catskills could see a 3 hour snow-sleet of 1/4-1" 10-2PM ish. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[wdrag]

Adding one more thought on Tue night winds:  I've seen stronger predicted wind gusts for other storms so we will see power outages, uproots etc... I'm always a little less than ideally certain on what happens.  I think the idea is have cell phones charged and if you have a home generator, enough gas to power... and if nothing happens that affects you---MUCH better outcome.  There will  be wind damage and uproots but few leafed trees.  So... I dont have quite the feel-confidence I'd like for the overall extensiveness of the wind problem.   We will know by this time Wednesday.