Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Brian5671]

Tornado watches from FL to VA

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Tornado watches from FL to VA

Already 11 tornado reports today, most in Florida. Disney is going to get rocked in a few hours.

[wdrag]

One comment on CF...  timing is everything with the high tide cycle.  Next storm Fri night-Sat AM is seemingly modeled to be worse than what occurs tomorrow morning. 

[tdp146]

19 minutes ago, wdrag said:

One comment on CF...  timing is everything with the high tide cycle.  Next storm Fri night-Sat AM is seemingly modeled to be worse than what occurs tomorrow morning. 

We might have a new inlet or two on the island by the time this winter is over. 

[weathermedic]

Gusting to 31 mph at JFK last hour

[uofmiami]

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

 

It’s basically a super abrose jet event. This will sting. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s another monster fetch you just don’t see on the east coast. Major to extreme beach erosion is a lock, as tides are higher than the last event and this looks stronger. 

Fire Island will need an army corps beach replenishment project like Long Beach got several years ago. I believe the buoys south of Fire Island Inlet and Montauk drifted away following the record wave heights on December 18th. 
 

20 S Fire Island NOT AVBL

23 SSW Montauk P NOT AVBL

 

 

[NJwx85]

18z 3k NAM showing peak sustained winds in the 40MPH winds as far West as Northeast NJ and the Hudson Valley. 50-60mph for the South shore of LI. That's sustained winds, not gusts.

[nycsnow]

MTA has the big sand trucks on each side of Verrazzano bridge day to close it once winds pick up  

[lee59]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

18z 3k NAM showing peak sustained winds in the 40MPH winds as far West as Northeast NJ and the Hudson Valley. 50-60mph for the South shore of LI. That's sustained winds, not gusts.

I would be surprised to see sustained that high unless it is an exposed location like an airport. Even there that is unusual. The beaches are a different story, they could have sustained over 40.

[lee59]

I have little to interfere with the anemometer at my house, when the wind comes from the east and southeast. It is 33 ft. high. I am expecting sustained in the 20s and gust to about 50mph.

[uofmiami]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

I have little to interfere with the anemometer at my house, when the wind comes from the east and southeast. It is 33 ft. high. I am expecting sustained in the 20s and gust to about 50mph.

You should see gusts over 50mph.  I am expecting the same as well.  Already 20-25mph gusts at both my stations.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I have little to interfere with the anemometer at my house, when the wind comes from the east and southeast. It is 33 ft. high. I am expecting sustained in the 20s and gust to about 50mph.

From your own point and click forecast.

Tonight

Rain before 1am, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm between 1am and 4am, then a chance of rain after 4am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Temperature rising to around 55 by 1am. Windy, with a south wind 32 to 37 mph becoming south 24 to 29 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

[nycsnow]

Winds picking up

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

18z 3k NAM showing peak sustained winds in the 40MPH winds as far West as Northeast NJ and the Hudson Valley. 50-60mph for the South shore of LI. That's sustained winds, not gusts.

Are those accurate? Keep hearing that these models tend to overdo wind.

[lee59]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

From your own point and click forecast.

Tonight

Rain before 1am, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm between 1am and 4am, then a chance of rain after 4am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Temperature rising to around 55 by 1am. Windy, with a south wind 32 to 37 mph becoming south 24 to 29 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Yea I did see that. My expectations are gusts in the 50s and 60s at airports and possibly 70 or higher at the beach.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Are those accurate? Keep hearing that these models tend to overdo wind.

Yes probably overdone, but the signal is there. This is going to be an anomalous wind event.

[NJwx85]

Just now, lee59 said:

Yea I did see that. My expectations are gusts in the 50s and 60s at airports and possibly 70 or higher at the beach.

Okay I'm not sure there's going to be a difference. The whole island is expected to get blasted, not just the South facing shore.

[lee59]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Okay I'm not sure there's going to be a difference. The whole island is expected to get blasted, not just the South facing shore.

I agree the whole island should have extreme winds. The south shore beaches have nothing to slow that wind down and I believe they will get it the worst. The most power outages may actually be on the north shore, many more trees there.

[Allsnow]

 

[lee59]

Jones Beach already gusting to 49mph. I just had a gust to 30mph.

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I agree the whole island should have extreme winds. The south shore beaches have nothing to slow that wind down and I believe they will get it the worst. The most power outages may actually be on the north shore, many more trees there.

Okay but you said max gust for your area would be 50mph with sustained in the 20's. If that verified the whole storm would be a bust.

[lee59]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Okay but you said max gust for your area would be 50mph with sustained in the 20's. If that verified the whole storm would be a bust.

I would never call that a bust. I am basing that on the fact that there are obstacles that slow wind speeds down as you move inland, especially at 33 feet, the height of my anemometer. The 50mph is only what I would expect, not necessarily what will ultimately happen.

[NJwx85]

Just now, lee59 said:

I would never call that a bust. I am basing that on the fact that there are obstacles that slow wind speeds down as you move inland, especially at 33 feet, the height of my anemometer. The 50mph is only what I would expect, not necessarily what will ultimately happen.

It would be a bust for the rest of the area. I am expecting stronger winds than that and I am well inland.

[MANDA]

Well inland here and the trees are swaying noticeably at times.  Occasional gusts to 25 mph I am estimating.  I have elevation and am wide open from to the SE through the NW.  Thankfully no trees within falling distance to the house, builder pretty much cleared to the woods line.

[lee59]

 

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It would be a bust for the rest of the area. I am expecting stronger winds than that and I am well inland.

Ok you could be correct. The highest wind gust at my house was 79mph during Sandy. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Already big gusts. Gonna be a long night 

[tdp146]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Fire Island will need an army corps beach replenishment project like Long Beach got several years ago. I believe the buoys south of Fire Island Inlet and Montauk drifted away following the record wave heights on December 18th. 
 

20 S Fire Island NOT AVBL

23 SSW Montauk P NOT AVBL

 

 

Wow I didn’t realize the Islip buoy broke free. I can’t remember the last time that happened. Sucks we won’t have wave measurements from the location for this storm (and Friday as well)

[lee59]

Jones Beach already having tropical storm conditions with sustained at 42mph and gusts to 51mph.