Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

The good thing about high winds in the winter months is that most of the trees do not have leaves on them so there isn't as much resistance.

Yes but the ground will be saturated.

[donsutherland1]

The 0z HREF wind product brings 70 mph gusts to the south shore of Long Island (mean) but 60 mph to parts of Long Island (minimum). The range seems to have narrowed from yesterday's 12z guidance and today's 12z cycle is running. Let's see where things converge. 60 mph with widespread 50 mph gusts would still be nasty in a situation where the ground is saturated.

[NJwx85]

Lots of severe weather/tornados in Southern Alabama, Southwest Georgia and Northern Florida today. Usually indicative of the strength of the dynamics involved with a system. Surface low near St. Louis is already sub 990mb. Forecasted to deepen to sub 975mb before occluding over Lake Michigan late tonight.

[nycsnow]

Tool For later 

https://poweroutage.us

[NJwx85]

High res models, HRDPS, 3k NAM, FV3, ARW models indicating heaviest axis of rain over I-95 and points just to the North and West (2-4"+) with less amounts of 1-2" for the city South and East where the strongest winds will be.

[guinness77]

Isaias was the push for me to make an account on this board after years and years of lurking.  I did not lose power, somehow, here but there was definite damage in my neighborhood and I was working at Huntington train station at the time and the LIRR didn’t have power until like midnight. That doesn’t happen often. 
 

@WestBabylonWeather I’m pretty sure you’re not far from me looking at your pics. I’m just west of Belmont. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, guinness77 said:

Isaias was the push for me to make an account on this board after years and years of lurking.  I did not lose power, somehow here, but there was definite damage in my neighborhood and I was working at Huntington train station at the time and the LIRR didn’t have power until like midnight. That doesn’t happen often. 
 

@WestBabylonWeather I’m pretty sure you’re not far from me looking at your pics. I’m just west of Belmont. 

Pm sent 

[jm1220]

Maybe a brief surprise well NW of the city? Central PA still getting pounded. State College PA webcams look like a snow globe. Some places around there will probably end up over warning amounts when 1-3” was expected. When I was there I don’t remember one positive bust like this other than an elevation snow event in Oct 2005. Happy for them. 

[wdrag]

1 mile S- 31f.  Pave wet in Wantage 740’ msl

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

I’m going with Walt who says 50-65 and the other pros. Walt has been on this threat for a week and has an entire career in forecasting for the NwS. 

Go with whatever you want. You seem to think there’s a competing forecast. This is from the national weather service.

[forkyfork]

radar looks pretty good for 2+ for the whole region

[weathermedic]

Almost the entire eastern U.S. east of the Mississippi is covered with some kind of precipitation, snow, rain and severe in the south. Not a very common occurrence. Gives you an idea of the dynamics/moisture with this system.

 

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Go with whatever you want. You seem to think there’s a competing forecast. This is from the national weather service.

There is an inversion but it's very close to the surface. Otherwise winds are Southerly so little shear. Any wind shear would be at the lowest levels, from 925mb down. I don't believe this would have a tremendous impact on aviation, however you're the pilot so I would differ to you. I would think the risk of downdrafts would be higher than normal. In any event visibility will be poor in heavy convection from 00z to 09z.

[RockawayRowdies]

Flurries in Rockaway borough

[nycsnow]

Gfs says we are gusting to 50 by 5pm and gust up to 70 by 10pm

[Tatamy]

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

1 mile S- 31f.  Pave wet in Wantage 740’ msl

Light rain here.  36/32

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Gfs says we are gusting to 50 by 5pm and gust up to 70 by 10pm

The soundings are worrisome. 

 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The soundings are worrisome. 

 

No real inversion right?

[the_other_guy]

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

There is an inversion but it's very close to the surface. Otherwise winds are Southerly so little shear. Any wind shear would be at the lowest levels, from 925mb down. I don't believe this would have a tremendous impact on aviation, however you're the pilot so I would differ to you. I would think the risk of downdrafts would be higher than normal. In any event visibility will be poor in heavy convection from 00z to 09z.

Yeh not a great night for flying

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

No real inversion right?

No. I'm not a met and far from an expert with these things but looks well mixed.

[nycsnow]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

No. I'm not a met and far from an expert with these things but looks well mixed.

Upton mentions it as well no strong inversion present 

[Irishmick9]

Solid light snow in Vernon. Dusting on all surfaces, turning slushy on county road. 31f

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I was just looking at buoy obs from down south and wow, there have been some seriously strong winds for a winter storm down there. 64 knot gust just south of Alabama. Seas are also pushing 20’ in the gulf. I think this is a real wind threat this time. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I was just looking at buoy obs from down south and wow, there have been some seriously strong winds for a winter storm down there. 64 knot gust just south of Alabama. Seas are also pushing 20’ in the gulf. I think this is a real wind threat this time. 

Yep, really dynamic system coming. And very high PWAT/dew point air is coming in and as mentioned not much of an inversion. I’d be ready not to have power. With the pace of these storms there won’t be much of a beach left soon. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Yep, really dynamic system coming. And very high PWAT/dew point air is coming in and as mentioned not much of an inversion. I’d be ready not to have power. With the pace of these storms there won’t be much of a beach left soon. 

They have a lot of tornado damage in the Panhandle this morning.

[Snowlover11]

the flooding is gunna be insane, especially north and west where they have a snowpack. plus another storm come friday night/saturday.

[TJW014]

Wind gusts already to 35 mph on the marshes in Barnegat Bay.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, really dynamic system coming. And very high PWAT/dew point air is coming in and as mentioned not much of an inversion. I’d be ready not to have power. With the pace of these storms there won’t be much of a beach left soon. 

[donsutherland1]

12z HREF Forecast Precipitation (24-hours):

[MANDA]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

12z HREF Forecast Precipitation (24-hours):

Very concerning for those in NNJ who are affected by river flooding.  Street and highway (urban flooding) is one thing but when a river overflows into your house that is something else.  Feel bad for those affected.  Stress level must be through the roof.  Me personally if I went through it once I'd be out of there.