Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[L.I.Pete]

17 hours ago, psv88 said:

Setauket area reported 1.2”, again showing that area as the snowiest on the island. Upton came in with an even inch. That area always finds a way to get the max on LI 

Can confirm...way up here in the "elevations" of Port Jeff Station (177') looked like 1.5". No official measurement though.

[Brian5671]

59 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Much like last time BUFKIT algorithms do not want to mix winds down really and only indicate JFK maybe gusting 40-42...I would think just before FROPA they could have a stronger gust than that 

do these models underestimate the inversion or something?  They are almost always overdone....

[Albedoman]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi... I like it.  NRCS?  

National Resource Conservation Service  ---new name for the Soil Conservation Service in the late 1990's . Brief resume below

University of Memphis 1979-1986 Awarded B.S. Degree in Physical Geography with an Environmental Science Concentration and a Geology Minor in 1981. Obtained post-graduate experience in Environmental and Urban Planning Resource Management from 1984 to 1986. Highlights - Masters of Fellowship Award-only awarded to one graduate student in all 17 graduate schools-twice awarded for independent research and high GPA average. President of Gamma Theta Upsilon National Honor Society in 1981. Deans List awarded-1981. Technical Background - Air/Remote Sensing, Quantitative Analysis, GIS Systems, Water Quality Analysis, including Hydrogeological Studies, and Urban Land Use Studies.

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

In any case... my only concern is that mixed temps over the snowpack may not pass 50 or if they do, not be 50+ for more than 6 hours over snow depth 8+... I kind of see that in the plan view guidance before and after midnight. sort of looks to me like where there is 8+ snow cover, we only lose 75% and the remaining 2" hold a lot of water... You're the hydrologist.  My concerns are similar though I dont have any expertise on river rises outside of having produced warnings.

I value what you've said. fwiw... I'm going to have to use NERFC/PHI forecast stages. Temps/qpf will ultimately dictate.

Whatever doesn't go Wed morning, might complete the melting cycle Fri night, but even there mostly chilly temps except for maybe 6 hours?

 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

do these models underestimate the inversion or something?  They are almost always overdone....

They usually seem to do a good job in Dec-Feb..we've seen occasions though in Sep-Oct or Mar/Apr where we mix down better than expected.  Usually the BUFKIT soundings do well though with March 2010 they sure did not.  My memory is they showed no mixing down really at all

[Brian5671]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

They usually seem to do a good job in Dec-Feb..we've seen occasions though in Sep-Oct or Mar/Apr where we mix down better than expected.  Usually the BUFKIT soundings do well though with March 2010 they sure did not.  My memory is they showed no mixing down really at all

Kind of a crapshoot then on the bigger events

[wdrag]

7 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

University of Memphis 1979-1986 Awarded B.S. Degree in Physical Geography with an Environmental Science Concentration and a Geology Minor in 1981. Obtained post-graduate experience in Environmental and Urban Planning Resource Management from 1984 to 1986. Highlights - Masters of Fellowship Award-only awarded to one graduate student in all 17 graduate schools-twice awarded for independent research and high GPA average. President of Gamma Theta Upsilon National Honor Society in 1981. Deans List awarded-1981. Technical Background - Air/Remote Sensing, Quantitative Analysis, GIS Systems, Water Quality Analysis, including Hydrogeological Studies, and Urban Land Use Studies.

 

Love this- I trust you.  I just need to think the less dire side of what will happen... not quite as severe so I dont get swept up in my own world.  Balanced with other input. 

I'll be interested in the PHI AFD late today and their EM briefing page where these possibilities-likelihoods in my opinion should be spelled out.  If they occur as we expect...everyone has been prepared. If not spelled out and they occur, then we have a communications problem since some non human modified guidance is guiding us to serious issues.  This is where I like science AI some day. 

Not Sandy.  but a big impact player.

 

Thank YOU!  Very good post of the options...

 

Fwiw: Texas now 40,000 meters out. Going up. 

[Albedoman]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Love this- I trust you.  I just need to think the less dire side of what will happen... not quite as severe s I dont get swept up in my world.  

 

I'll be interested in the PHI AFD late today and their EM briefing page where these possibilities-likelihoods in my opinion should be spelled out.  If they occur as we expect...everyone has been prepared. If not spelled out and they occur, then we have a communications problem since some non human modified guidance is guiding us to serious issues.  This is where I like science AI some day. 

Not Sandy.  but a big impact player.

 

Thank YOU!  Very good post of the options...

 

Fwiw: Texas no 40,000 meters out. Going up. 

thanks

 

[nycsnow]

https://x.com/weatheroptics/status/1744438809364767214?s=46

[nycsnow]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179-091000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Richmond (Staten Island), Kings (Brooklyn), Northwest
  Suffolk, Northeast Suffolk, Southwest Suffolk, Southeast
  Suffolk, Northern Queens, Northern Nassau, Southern Queens and
  Southern Nassau Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

 

[Stormlover74]

Wind advisory for the rest of the Upton zones

[nycsnow]

National Weather Service New York NY
318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

CTZ005>007-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>073-091000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locally higher gusts up to 55 mph are
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

[lee59]

There was an event November 26 with no advisories or warnings and Jones Beach had sustained winds of 45 and gusts to 60. On December 18, I had a gust at my house of 51mph. I am sure it was higher at the shore. Warnings were issued for that event. This looks to be similar to those events, we shall see.

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wind advisory for the rest of the Upton zones

S coast of CT is in the high wind warning

-

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

CTZ008>012-091000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern New
  Haven, Southern Middlesex and Southern New London Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

There was an event November 26 with no advisories or warnings and Jones Beach had sustained winds of 45 and gusts to 60. On December 18, I had a gust at my house of 51mph. I am sure it was higher at the shore. Warnings were issued for that event. This looks to be similar to those events, we shall see.

I remember that here-big winds and not even an advisory.   Been a windy winter so far.

[TJW014]

This will be a fun flight home from RSW - EWR tomorrow night.

[weathermedic]

Also went with a coastal flood warning for southern Queens and Nassau.

 

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New York NY
339 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

NYZ178-100315-
/O.NEW.KOKX.CF.W.0001.240110T1000Z-240110T1400Z/
Southern Queens-
339 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...2 to 2 1/2 feet of inundation above ground level expected
  in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline with the
  Wednesday morning high tide.

* WHERE...Southern Queens County.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Moderate flooding of vulnerable areas
  near the waterfront and shoreline, particularly Wednesday
  morning. Expect 2 to 2 1/2 ft of inundation above ground level
  in low lying, vulnerable areas. This will result in numerous
  road closures and cause widespread flooding of low lying
  property including parking lots, parks, lawns and
  homes/businesses with basements near the waterfront. Vehicles
  parked in vulnerable areas near the waterfront will likely
  become flooded. Flooding will also extend inland from the
  waterfront along tidal rivers and bays.

* SHORELINE IMPACTS...Large breaking waves of 10 to 15 ft along
  the oceanfront will result in scattered dune erosion and
  localized overwashes. Localized flooding of roadways and
  vulnerable structures behind protective dunes is possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Peak surge of 4 to 5 ft will likely be
  between times of high tide Tuesday evening and Wednesday
  morning. The timing of an offshore windshift before the time of
  high tide Wednesday morning is expected to keep the threat for
  major flood thresholds (3 ft of inundation above ground) to be
  reached low and localized. Surge guidance trends will be monitor
  and forecast refined over the next 24 hours. In addition, heavy
  rain during the Tuesday evening high tide will likely exacerbate
  urban and poor drainage flood issues for coastal and shoreline
  roads.

[nycsnow]

Gonna be a big costal flood event as well 

[nycsnow]

Upton

SE winds will increase through the day Tuesday with the
strongest winds expected Tuesday night. The low level jet that
is modeled is concerning with around 95-100 kt between about 4-5
kft. These winds are well above an inversion, but winds around
1-2ft are quite strong around 50-70kt when the jet peaks
overhead. A model consensus has the peak of the low level jet
and winds over the area between 03-09z from west to east. The
highest winds are still expected near the coast with gusts
around 60 mph (in the High Wind Warning). Gusts 45- 55 mph are
expected in the wind advisory area away from the immediate
coast. Sustained winds could reach 25-35 mph at times Tuesday
night. The peak of the winds may occur in just a few hours
coinciding with the passage of the low level jet, 10pm-1am north
and west of the city, 11pm-2am in the NYC metro, 12am-4am Long
Island and Southern CT. Once the front and winds shift more to
the S and SW, winds should weaken, which is expected to occur
before day break Wednesday. It will then remain breezy on
Wednesday with gusts 25-35 mph possible.

 

[Snowlover11]

state of emergency for nj starting 5pm tomorrow 

[jm1220]

28 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Gonna be a big costal flood event as well 

Hopefully the worst comes overnight Tue into Wed which would be at low tide. By Wed AM high tide the winds might switch to offshore which would lessen the coastal flood impact quite a bit. 

[Amped]

E or SE winds get funneled into nyc metro by the shape of the coastline. The effect was clearly felt in March 2010, Sandy and Isaias.

[nycsnow]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully the worst comes overnight Tue into Wed which would be at low tide. By Wed AM high tide the winds might switch to offshore which would lessen the coastal flood impact quite a bit. 

Upton thinks it won’t matter 

* SHORELINE IMPACTS...Large breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft along
  the oceanfront will result in widespread dune erosion and damage
  to dune structures. Scattered overwashes are expected, resulting
  in some flooding of roadways and vulnerable structures behind
  protective dunes. Isolated breaches or inundation of the barrier
  island is possible where dune structures have been severely
  compromised by previous storms.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Peak surge of 4 to 5 ft will likely be
  between times of high tide Tuesday evening and Wednesday
  morning. Tidal piling will likely inhibit the recession of water
  before the Wednesday AM high tide, which could cause locally
  major flooding for area from Freeport eastward. Of particular
  concern are areas along the eastern Great South Bay from
  Lindenhurst to Mastic and along the bay side of Fire Island,
  where west to southwest gale winds may pile waters Wednesday
  morning into afternoon along with 2 to 3 ft of wave action.
  Residents in vulnerable communities should prepare for the
  potential of major coastal flooding (3ft of inundation above
  ground).

 PRECAUTIONARY

[NJwx85]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Much like last time BUFKIT algorithms do not want to mix winds down really and only indicate JFK maybe gusting 40-42...I would think just before FROPA they could have a stronger gust than that 

Why is that? I don’t see an inversion on the soundings.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Why is that? I don’t see an inversion on the soundings.

It is ever so slight on JFK on the NAM 3-4,000 ft but not much.  The HRRR does show max wind gust potential of 45-50kts at JFK and maybe higher on LI

[PuraVida]

Text from PSEG…I wonder who they are talking to to get this info.

FYI…I’m in Suffolk county


PSEGLI: Heavy rain and wind gusts up to 75 mph possible Tuesday into Wednesday. We're ready. Report an outage: reply OUT or use our free app: bit.ly/PSEGLIapp


.

[suzook]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I remember that here-big winds and not even an advisory.   Been a windy winter so far.

And rainy 

[nycsnow]

https://x.com/weatheroptics/status/1744478180210016499?s=46

[MANDA]

Snow pack in my area.  Currently 4.5" - 5" of snow pack remains at my house.

Can't speak for areas to my north and west but the snow pack here is heavily crusted over.  It almost supports my weight (160#) when I walk over it,  I only make minor indentations.  My point being I'm not sure how much rainfall it will absorb at least initially.  Going to be a good deal of runoff as the heavy rains get underway.  Again, not sure what the condition of the 6-12" snow pack is to my NW.  Just thought it was worth a mention.

[The 4 Seasons]

tri-state area snowfall totals.

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

tri-state area snowfall totals.

Thanks for posting here this is great!