Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Logan11]

7.3 inches up here. Still a gentle light snow falling but the end is near.

[cleetussnow]

All done.  Good little wintry storm.  Like 2.5 inches of slop OTG north of HPN but probably 4 to 5 actually fell if I was doing a snowboard.  

[WarrenCtyWx]

Ended up with slightly over 8" down here. Incredibly heavy rates from about 6:00-8:30 last night. Easily the best event here since the early February 2021 monster.

[allgame830]

7 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

All done.  Good little wintry storm.  Like 2.5 inches of slop OTG north of HPN but probably 4 to 5 actually fell if I was doing a snowboard.  

Yeah we got roughly 4.5” but it’s compacted almost down to half 

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Walt - thanks and a question.  Can you highlight the differences between the "ensemble" river forecasts and what I guess I'd call the "regular" river flooding forecasts from the NWS (which are both under the "rivers and lakes" tab on the NWS page)?  What is the ensemble of?  Mostly curious why the ensemble forecast has the Passaic at risk of major flooding, while the regular forecast only has that in moderate flooding, as per below and in general the ensemble forecasts are much more serious.  Is one or the other more accurate?  

 

 

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Most sure what you';re looking at... just saw the lager Pine Brook in minor heading for moderate on 1/10 but nothing bout 1/13.  Please send me what you're looking at that says 1/13 =thanks. I have to prep some pea soup so ill be away at times. 

The graphic I posted (quoted above) says, "through 1/13/24" right at the top of the graphic...

[BoulderWX]

11” in poconos and came back to about 4 solid inches in Morristown. 

[snywx]

Final here is 13.2” 

That band last night produced 3-4” rates. Incredible 

[WxDom]

Any additional snowfall reports not already submitted that we can add to our next PNS? We're particularly sparse in parts of southern Connecticut and the Bronx.

Feel free to post your report here along with the location and time of measurement. Also, can submit here.

Thanks!

-Dominic (Upton)

[WestBabylonWeather]

West Babylon - snow at the end for an hour. Minor minor grassy area coatings

out past patchogue where I was earlier- snow was heavier and a slushy half inch formed. 
 

wintry feel

hoping the upcoming pattern delivers. 

[keno19]

South Massapequa 0.00 in   winds peaked at 36mph

[WxDom]

About an hour ago...a look from our office toward KOKX on eastern Long Island. Officially 0.5" at the site so far.

 

[wdrag]

43 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

The graphic I posted (quoted above) says, "through 1/13/24" right at the top of the graphic...

So the short of it for me, it doesn't work past day 3 using the slider bar, or if it does, you have to wait til a certain time of the day. I jnever use the slider bar. 

I'll send a note to the MARFC and see if they give me a reply.

 

My recommendation: Please click on the river forecast point of interest and then use the scroll bar to the right to see all the info provided for that forecast point including ensemble river response, ensemble qpf (when it was imported for use) etc. 

Thanks,

Walt

[wdrag]

Wantage_ this location 8 =s High Point NJ. My final will be 13.4" over 24 hours. Still some S- here but I doubt if it adds anything noticeable, especially with compacting ongoing at a temp of 34.

[psv88]

Snow showers continue in nw Suffolk, not adding up to much, but makes for a wintry look, 33

[weathermedic]

Finished with .77 liquid at my station

[Rjay]

Nice day out here

 

[RU848789]

17 minutes ago, wdrag said:

So the short of it for me, it doesn't work past day 3 using the slider bar, or if it does, you have to wait til a certain time of the day. I jnever use the slider bar. 

I'll send a note to the MARFC and see if they give me a reply.

 

My recommendation: Please click on the river forecast point of interest and then use the scroll bar to the right to see all the info provided for that forecast point including ensemble river response, ensemble qpf (when it was imported for use) etc. 

Thanks,

Walt

Ahhh, I now see what you meant about the slider bar, which I wasn't using.  I simply clicked on the "entire period" button and up popped the graphic I copied/pasted in this thread, which does say through 1/13/24.  However if one tries to use the slider bar, one only gets the first 3 days to work and it's grey after that.  This is a problem for this page, as users will obtain info they think is for flooding through 1/13, when it's not.  One other minor point: the ensemble river flooding graphic you posted doesn't note anywhere on the graphic what timeframe the graphic is for (it only gives the start time, not the end time).  Again something that should be fixed. 

I send emails to the WFO webmaster a couple of times per year with minor issues like this, since you may not have noticed, but I occasionally dive into deep details, lol (the webmaster is the one they recommend contacting on the NWS-Mt. Holly webpage, but this one might be better sent to MARFC as you were suggesting, since it looks like the office just "hosts" that page from them) and I always get a reply and sometimes an answer. 

I still recall asking in 2016 if they could start doing snowfall forecast and accumulation maps regionally, instead of just maps for each WFO and the reply was they don't do that, but he'd pass the comments along and a few years later they appeared (my guess is more than a few folks made requests like that).  

[sussexcountyobs]

After about 1.5 to 2 hr lull. It has begun to snow lightly again. 32.0°

[Stormlover74]

Flood watches issued by Mt Holly

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

So western 

Long Island did best last nights. With I guess realistically, .5” there was a full coating on colder surfaces: 

[Intensewind002]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

So western 

Long Island did best last nights. With I guess realistically, .5” there was a full coating on colder surfaces: 

Yeah everyone west of the Meadowbrook or North of the LIE seemed to be able to get at least some accumulation unless you were right on the water

[psv88]

14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

So western 

Long Island did best last nights. With I guess realistically, .5” there was a full coating on colder surfaces: 

Most of Suffolk out past riverhead will have 1/2 to 1”. Areas on the north shore of Suffolk got a nice burst today. 

[the_other_guy]

This photo from today into HPN.

 

You can see the rain/snow line ran on 95 thru Port Chester.

 

The Sound totally fucked over Coastal Westchester and of course the north shore of LI

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

This photo from today into HPN.

 

You can see the rain/snow line ran on 95 thru Port Chester.

 

The Sound totally fucked over Coastal Westchester and of course the north shore of LI

The sound will drop into the 30s over the next month so its negative impact will decrease a bit heading into peak climo.

 

by February/march the sound is a net positive for the island, as it enhances snow on the backside/CCB of storms. @NorthShoreWxis a big time beneficiary of this. 

[NJwx85]

Today amounted to white rain. Not sure it even stuck to the existing snow pack. Sun came out around 2pm. Can’t wait for my tropical storm Tuesday night.

[Rtd208]

@Maureen Picked up 0.28" of precipitation for the day. Storm total 1.07"

[Stormlover74]

Upton flood watch west of the city. High wind watch Brooklyn queens LI. Gusts to 60

[wdrag]

25 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Ahhh, I now see what you meant about the slider bar, which I wasn't using.  I simply clicked on the "entire period" button and up popped the graphic I copied/pasted in this thread, which does say through 1/13/24.  However if one tries to use the slider bar, one only gets the first 3 days to work and it's grey after that.  This is a problem for this page, as users will obtain info they think is for flooding through 1/13, when it's not.  One other minor point: the ensemble river flooding graphic you posted doesn't note anywhere on the graphic what timeframe the graphic is for (it only gives the start time, not the end time).  Again something that should be fixed. 

I send emails to the WFO webmaster a couple of times per year with minor issues like this, since you may not have noticed, but I occasionally dive into deep details, lol (the webmaster is the one they recommend contacting on the NWS-Mt. Holly webpage, but this one might be better sent to MARFC as you were suggesting, since it looks like the office just "hosts" that page from them) and I always get a reply and sometimes an answer. 

I still recall asking in 2016 if they could start doing snowfall forecast and accumulation maps regionally, instead of just maps for each WFO and the reply was they don't do that, but he'd pass the comments along and a few years later they appeared (my guess is more than a few folks made requests like that).  

Request for comment was sent to MARFC.  

The ensembles have a model run time..lower right of each panel. End time I dont need because whatever is displayed has to satisfy.  Ensembles are 10 day and each day is on the X axis. Looks like their river forecast officially are two day.

This is where NWS is going on AHPS...new link below. Copy into browser and check.

https://preview.water.noaa.gov/#@=-96.5556541,37.7326036,3.54063&b=topographic&g=obsFcst,1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!0!0!0!0!0,0.5,1!1!1!1!0,0,0&ab=0,0,#D94B4A,1,1,1,#cccccc,1,0,0,#B243B1,1,0,0,#98E09A,1&a=hydrologic,0.35&s=0,0,0.9,0.9&n=false,#72afe9,0.9,0,0.9,0,0.9&p=false,0.75,0,7,0,1,2023,11,24,0&d=0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1,#006EFF,1,#006EFF,1,#006EFF&q=

Play with it. Cursor over. 

 

I've posted just this week regional snowfall forecast maps... several times. example.attached.  

Regional accum maps were posted this morning from LSR but something smooth, is only once in a while for a big big storm. We might see one tomorrow.  However, I just dropped one in from NOHRSC.  

 

Later,

Walt

I've attached the flood watch just issued by Mt Holly. 

 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

34 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The sound will drop into the 30s over the next month so its negative impact will decrease a bit heading into peak climo.

 

by February/march the sound is a net positive for the island, as it enhances snow on the backside/CCB of storms. @NorthShoreWxis a big time beneficiary of this. 

It can hurt early in the season.  October 2011 was a prime example when snow accumulated south of here, but not here.  On 11/15/2018 I went for a late walk in Sunken Meadow.  Down by the beach there was white rain, but uphill and back from the bluffs branches were starting to break out of the trees from the weight of the heavy wet snow. So the effect that day was literally on the "immediate" shore.  In a normal year, the effect diminishes in December, but there hasn't been anything normal about this year.

We accumulated a solid 1.0" here today, plus 0.2" yesterday, so at least we are on the board (1.2" season).  I'd be happy with that if this was Myrtle Beach.

My house is 2 miles from the Sound, but a little less than a mile from the estuarine part of the Nissequogue River, which is basically an extension of the Sound.  My driveway is 122 feet ASL (the house behind me is about 40 feet lower).

Another possible impact of the Sound being so close...the screaming winds off LI Sound in some of the more notable nor'easters are frequently not good for snow ratios.  Many such storms Islip has done much better in terms of measured accumulations, but my SWE was higher.  I'm only about 8-9 miles NW of ISP (as the jet flies; it seems a lot further when driving there).

 

[Rjay]