Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Out by moriches right now. Heavy snow. 
 

slush on road 

[TWCCraig]

Big wet flakes coming down now, after all the rain. 36 with the temp dropping. Not expecting any accumulation

[jm1220]

Rain/snow mix in Long Beach. 

[Rjay]

Light snow...dusting on some surfaces lol 

[WestBabylonWeather]

We did it lol 

 

[Tatamy]

With additional rounds of snow my total is now up to 6.5”.  According to radar I am done.

[tim]

Rain changed to snow..temp @ 36.1* here in eastport.

Talk about a cheap thrill..but good to see it

[psv88]

24 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Temp dropped two degrees. Pretty rapidly. May end as a burst of snow? 

You must live very close to the bay? It’s been 33-34 last few hours with the snow. You have to be one of the warmer spots in western Suffolk 

[Snowlover11]

4.2” here, additional light dusting 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, psv88 said:

You must live very close to the bay? It’s been 33-34 last few hours with the snow. You have to be one of the warmer spots in western Suffolk 

I took a drive out east to clear my head. Heavier snow in moriches. Quick slush coating on road and grass. 

[Brian5671]

3 inches here final.  Did turn to rain at the end so it's about 1.5-2 inches of wet slop,  white rain now and 33

[EastonSN+]

I was actually happy getting to 2.5 inches. To be honest I thought I was going to bust with only a half inch.

[tdp146]

What’s the rule for a “trace” of snow. I thought I remember someone saying even if it’s not accumulating whatsoever, if there are snowflakes falling, it’s considered a “trace”

[dWave]

O snap..mod to heavy wet snow. Slushy coating on grassy surfaces. 34* 

It's been so long lol

 

[RU848789]

30 minutes ago, wdrag said:

1.  
2. https://satable.ncep.noaa.gov › naefs

   Ensemble Situational Awareness Table

   The NAEFS Ensemble: A 52-member ensemble consisting of 31 GEFS ensemble members and 21 Canadian (GEPS) members. The GEFS has 30 perturbed members and a control member. The GEPS has 20 perturbed members and a control member. Although the GEFS and GEPS are run at native resolutions of 25 and 39 km, respectively, the NAEFS is distributed on a 1x1 ...

    

   THI Grand ensemble forecast is I think input once/day and then presuming the RFC has the antecedent conditions correct, the river responds to the qpf.  I'll show you with the attachments. 

    

   The RFC forecast itself only out to Jan 10 while this Jan 6 12z ensemble  is out to 10 days. Therefore its when the period ends that determines max river stage.

    

   If the ensemble is wrong, the river response is different. I think the ensembles are pretty good now, and it's a matter of forecaster input into the model that determines the river stages that make the curve.

    

   I use NAEFS in winter: GEFS seems conservative in winter. HEFS, I've no experience.

    

   I think it is wise to consider the NAEFS ensemble river forecast as a good first guess...

   The following should help for Pine Brook: I hope this is useful and you can verify Wednesday and beyond. 

    

    

3.  

 

Thanks for all the info/insights, but I still am curious about the difference, as the RFC forecast I posted clearly says through 1/13, so it's not cut off on 1/10.  IMO, discrepancies like that are not good to have unless there's a really good reason for it (like the forecasts are simply different - but if they are, the NWS should explain that so users aren't confused).  

[wdrag]

CoCoRahS climate sites final for D1. I'll have a D1-2 combo tomorrow at this time. Click maps for clarity.

This gives an idea... imperfect but quite a snow gradient in Sussex County NJ ranging from 6" southeast to over a foot northwest.  My count at 10AM in Wantage is 13.1.  

[psv88]

Steady snow up here and a colder surfaces are covered 

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, tdp146 said:

What’s the rule for a “trace” of snow. I thought I remember someone saying even if it’s not accumulating whatsoever, if there are snowflakes falling, it’s considered a “trace”

It is..ditto sleet (ice pellets) and I think hail too. 

[NorthShoreWx]

As of noon, our total precip for the event is up to 0.36".  If ratios had been 10:1 instead of 0.1:1 we'd have had a run of the mill light snowfall.  

[dWave]

Just now, tdp146 said:

What’s the rule for a “trace” of snow. I thought I remember someone saying even if it’s not accumulating whatsoever, if there are snowflakes falling, it’s considered a “trace”

Yeah. A trace is unmeasurable snow. A single flurry or heavy snow that's not sticking both are a trace. If you can't measure 0.1" it's a trace.

[NorthShoreWx]

Even the penguins in Riverhead aren't sure what that white stuff is (time sensitive):

https://hamptons.com/penguin-exhibit/

 

[TWCCraig]

Snowing.. temp of 35, warmer than most on the island. Nothing sticking

[wdrag]

Tomorrow I'll probably update the headline to maybe add a tag???  and certainly make it clear that OBS for this next event just fall right into this thread. 

 

I'm probably gassed out for the day... and won't post much more til tomorrow morning. 

[tdp146]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

It is..ditto sleet (ice pellets) and I think hail too. 

Thanks. Mark me down for .81” of rain and a trace of snow lol 

[HVSnowLover]

Steady light to moderate snow here. Sticking to grass, cartops, and roof tops. 

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

CoCoRahS climate sites final for D1. I'll have a D1-2 combo tomorrow at this time. Click maps for clarity.

This gives an idea... imperfect but quite a snow gradient in Sussex County NJ ranging from 6" southeast to over a foot northwest.  My count at 10AM in Wantage is 13.1.  

Guess snowman19 was right. No one in Westchester or Rockland 6+ at least based on that map.

[psv88]

A shame this will end soon. Better than nothing I guess. Another 2-3 hours of this we’d have a nice snowfall. Oh well

[Logan11]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Tomorrow I'll probably update the headline to maybe add a tag???  and certainly make it clear that OBS for this next event just fall right into this thread. 

 

I'm probably gassed out for the day... and won't post much more til tomorrow morning. 

Thanks for the great posts. I only slept about three hours and then had to shovel out the plowed in end of the driveway.  Plow guy is coming when its done to do the remaining 500 feet. Maybe an afternoon nap. LOL

[Dark Star]

Sun has come out in Garwood, central Union County, NJ, after a little light snow...Town plowed after 1" of snow last night, twice.  They always do a great job, but certainly a waste of taxpayer money, considering the entire event was above 32 degrees.  If they were concerned about accidents, they could have just concentrated on a few intersections on the main road.  

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, Logan11 said:

Thanks for the great posts. I only slept about three hours and then had to shovel out the plowed in end of the driveway.  Plow guy is coming when its done to do the remaining 500 feet. Maybe an afternoon nap. LOL

Since I have no emoji's...thanks... these are what we like to enjoy. Gotta have some fun. Thagts a heckuva long driveway!!! Sticks I suspect, just like up here near the Appalachian Trail.