Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[HVSnowLover]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Latest HREF:

The 1" line appears to be near the border of Manhattan and the Bronx, but north of Central Park:

The 2 inch line looks like it goes into the NW corner of the Bronx. There does seem to be a tight NW to SE gradient for sure. 

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Always amazed me how well the models pick up the hudson river further north of the city and the maps responded accordingly. This could be one of those Nyack right on the river gets an inch or two and on the other side of the palisades cliffs gets 4” a mile away.

It's amazing how detailed they have become. It will be interesting to see the gradient from little snowfall to moderate or greater snowfall.

[sterno2510]

37 in New Brunswick - Expecting all rain.  Putting the shovel away.

[snywx]

2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I’ve seen them pick up on the Wallkill River as well at times which is impressive IMO

I believe areas along the Walkill & Hudson are the lowest points of the county. Two areas in Orange county that should clean up is the Schnemunk area ( Highland Mills, Monroe ) & Shawangunk ridge area ( Otisville, Greenville ). I can def see some 12" reports coming from those areas. 

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The 2 inch line looks like it goes into the NW corner of the Bronx. There does seem to be a tight NW to SE gradient for sure. 

Looks good to me.  Have been expecting pretty much this all week....including going over to a mix for a time at my location.  We'll know for sure in 24 hours.

[SnowGoose69]

That makes more sense...the HREF yesterday and many forecasts in prior days I said were way too snowy in places like NE NJ near TEB/cntrl Westchester and near interior SW CT.  I never bought places like Paramus, Valhalla, areas along 15 in Fairfield seeing like 7-8 inches at all from this.  Those places getting totals like that and NYC seeing nothing usually only occurs in setups like those bastardized miller Bs where you have low level S-SE flow that is weak and penetrates the coast immediately but not inland or where you have a really marginal air mass ahead of the storm with again light e-se flow and you're like 40/31 at the coast and 37/27 up there when it starts...maybe like a 1/6/02 or 1/3/03...seeing that gradient in this sort of event would be unusual...it would typically be 25 miles more N as is shown now 

[Big Jims Videos]

Cloudy here in downtown Allentown overlooking the ppl center.  I'll be happy with 3 here.  

[snywx]

If I had to draw a line on where the 6" line will be its prob from Mahwah to Suffern to Stony point across the river to Yorktown. 

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That makes more sense...the HREF yesterday and many forecasts in prior days I said were way too snowy in places like NE NJ near TEB/cntrl Westchester and near interior SW CT.  I never bought places like Paramus, Valhalla, areas along 15 seeing like 7-8 inches at all from this.  Those places getting totals like that and NYC seeing nothing usually only occurs in setups like those bastardized miller Bs where you have low level S-SE flow that is weak and penetrates the coast immediately but not inland or where you have a really marginal air mass ahead of the storm with again light e-se flow and you're like 40/31 at the coast and 37/27 up there when it starts...maybe like a 1/6/02 or 1/3/03...seeing that gradient in this sort of event would be unusual...it would typically be 25 miles more N as is shown now 

Yes haven't had an I95 gradient storm in a while. It's usually always I287 now or even I84 although this could still be 2 inches Riverdale, 4 inches at HPN, and 0 at CPK which is more of a difference than most recent storms I can remember.  

[North and West]

Here's an observation; cloudy in Woodbridge NJ with an army of plows lined up at the local mall. Lots of salt everywhere. No precip yet. Steel gray out. Throw a log on the fireplace; even if it's all rain, it's gonna be cold. Good day for homemade chicken soup.

I’ll give you a forecast: It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last you the rest of your life.


.

[North and West]

29/22 I’m in camp with [mention=2361]MANDA[/mention].  The ensembles have been fairly consistent on 4-6” west of MMU. 
 

.

[NJwx85]

21 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Always amazed me how well the models pick up the hudson river further north of the city and the maps responded accordingly. This could be one of those Nyack right on the river gets an inch or two and on the other side of the palisades cliffs gets 4” a mile away.

I think 4-6” is a good call near the Palisades Parkway in Rockland. The cutoff should be close to the mall. Big uptick in elevation right after the mall going NB on 87.

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, snywx said:

If I had to draw a line on where the 6" line will be its prob from Mahwah to Suffern to Stony point across the river to Yorktown. 

I think it’s more Ringwood to Sloatsburg to Pomona to West Haverstraw to Bear Mountain.

[Greg g]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I think it’s more Ringwood to Sloatsburg to Pomona to West Haverstraw to Bear Mountain.

Yea I’m in west haverstraw/ stony point area and expecting 5-6 here

[Big Jims Videos]

First flakes in Allentown.  

 

[SnowGoose69]

Precip is more ahead of schedule in C-PA, across E PA and SW NJ its fairly close to what 18 or 00Z runs showed yesterday as of 18Z.  I do think though looking at radar presentation and fact ceilings already are down to 8000 feet in N-C NJ and that this is not a bone dry pre 03 blizzard airmass that there's a fairly strong chance it won't be 2130-22Z before the metro sees precip which many models last night had the start time as.

[donsutherland1]

As per mPing, light snow has reached Allentown and Easton.

[HVSnowLover]

Not surprisingly it looks like the freezing line right now is the I287 corridor.

 

Temps in the city right now ranging from 38 at the rockaways to 34 north Bronx.

[wxman]

Light snow has commenced here. 31/dp 25 

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not surprisingly it looks like the freezing line right now is the I287 corridor.

 

Temps in the city right now ranging from 38 at the rockaways to 34 north Bronx.

I’m at 34 degrees just North and East of the 87/PIP interchange.

[MJO812]

Latest HRRR has accumulations from northern NYC and North shore of LI.

[Greg g]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m at 34 degrees just North and East of the 87/PIP interchange.

33 here in garnerville 

[HVSnowLover]

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Greg g said:

33 here in garnerville 

I think the freezing line is West of us, closer to NW Rockland. Good news is sun angle won’t be an issue lol.

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Latest HRRR has accumulations from northern NYC and North shore of LI.

Pretty much expected Northern NYC and probably north shore of LI should at least get something although a total blanking or white rain wouldn't be shocking either, all depends on intensity of precip onset imo.

[sussexcountyobs]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Latest HRRR has accumulations from northern NYC and North shore of LI.

Go northwest young man. Tons of NYPD and FDNY guys live in Pine Island, Warwick, Florida and Goshen.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Aside from the maps having 10:1 ratios (more likely to be 5:1 in and around the NYC Metro Area), it is falling short in upstream areas where precipitation has been falling. For example, Sterling (IAD) has gone over to light rain after little or no accumulation. Later data from Wilmington, DE and Philadelphia will provide greater insight as to how things are working e.g., the snowfall amounts on the southern and eastern fringes of the measurable snowfall might be too high.

[Greg g]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think the freezing line is West of us, closer to NW Rockland. Good news is sun angle won’t be an issue lol.

So what are you thinking accumulation for us closer to the Hudson ?

[WestBabylonWeather]

Taking in the Christmas stuff now to the shed. Nothin like last minute lol

[forkyfork]

flurries have started in stanhope