Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[vegan_edible]

gfs in 40ish mins fingers crossed people

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, vegan_edible said:

gfs in 40ish mins fingers crossed people

RGEM (running now) probably more important than the GFS at this point.

[Brasiluvsnow]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

RGEM (running now) probably more important than the GFS at this point.

keep in mind its warm bias,,,,,now lets see what it spits out

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

keep in mind its warm bias,,,,,now lets see what it spits out

Terrible things anywhere near the coast

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2024010518&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[vegan_edible]

warm bias showing 

[HVSnowLover]

Oddly RGEM upped totals for Baltimore and Philly but decreased for NYC. Hopefully it's playing catchup?

[Brasiluvsnow]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Terrible things anywhere near the coast

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2024010518&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

definitely less QPF as it got closer to our area from down South as the model is not spitting out 1 or 1.25 as the other models ( think the nam showed this ) is that because the system is not maintaining strength ?

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Oddly RGEM upped totals for Baltimore and Philly but decreased for NYC. Hopefully it's playing catchup?

was just typing this and posting when I saw your post

 

[mannynyc]

RGEM also moved southwest so a good trend even if the snow map didn't change.

[NJwx85]

The 18z 3k NAM soundings are a horror show for the coast. 33 degrees in NYC at 23z, okay fine. 35 degrees at 01z, warm layers at 850mb and below 950mb. Up to 37 degrees at 04z. Even Putnam/Dutchess area eventually gets into the 33/34 range. Also 3k not as bullish on Sunday snow as 12k.

A lot of what falls on the immediate coast will be washed away by sunrise.

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

definitely less QPF as it got closer to our area from down South as the model is not spitting out 1 or 1.25 as the other models ( think the nam showed this ) is that because the system is not maintaining strength ?

It's basically showing what most other models are showing in the area which is .8-1.0 total QPF. The Euro was the driest with .6-.8. It seems this system is lacking dynamics once the initial precip comes through and then some areas get dry slotted. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z 3k NAM soundings are a horror show for the coast. 33 degrees in NYC at 23z, okay fine. 35 degrees at 01z, warm layers at 850mb and below 950mb. Up to 37 degrees at 04z. Even Putnam/Dutchess area eventually gets into the 33/34 range. Also 3k not as bullish on Sunday snow as 12k.

A lot of what falls on the immediate coast will be washed away by sunrise.

NYC, LI and coastal NJ are toast

[NJwx85]

If you look at 3k NAM at 01z sim radar you’ll see a big dry slot over our area with thunderstorms along the NJ coast near the SLP. Those storms will have the potential of robbing us of dynamics and moisture due to subsidence. This is just one model so it’s not necessarily correct.

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

If you look at 3k NAM at 01z sim radar you’ll see a big dry slot over our area with thunderstorms along the NJ coast near the SLP. Those storms will have the potential of robbing us of dynamics and moisture due to subsidence. This is just one model so it’s not necessarily correct.

If you are right near the coast you probably want the dry slot otherwise as you said any snow that falls will just be washed away. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

If you look at 3k NAM at 01z sim radar you’ll see a big dry slot over our area with thunderstorms along the NJ coast near the SLP. Those storms will have the potential of robbing us of dynamics and moisture due to subsidence. This is just one model so it’s not necessarily correct.

I don't trust the 3k or hrrr unless it's within 24 hours, maybe even 12. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

NYC, LI and coastal NJ are toast

You’re under a winter storm watch why do you care? 

[MikeS]

Upton just cut my totals (located in Wayne, right on the border of Oakland & Franklin Lakes) for Saturday Night from this morning..went from 3-7 inches to now 2-4 inches.

 

[cleetussnow]

At my location for of HPN, I am rooting for:

1) Heavy front end saturday/saturday night

2) Dry slot instead of rain

3) Sunday developer snow

That's the ONLY way we get to accumulation OTG more than a 3 sloppy inches here IMO. 

And I don't think there is a single model depiction that shows that exact scenario, but I am also not tracking every single run all day long so maybe there is.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

Winter storm warning just issued for Dutchess county. 5 to 9 Saturday night and 3 to 5 on Sunday. I'm thinking the lower end around 8 in Poughkeepsie area. 

[donsutherland1]

For reference:

[White Gorilla]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Winter storm warning just issued for Dutchess county. 5 to 9 Saturday night and 3 to 5 on Sunday. I'm thinking the lower end around 8 in Poughkeepsie area. 

Sounds about right.  I will gladly take it. Even 5-6. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

At my location for of HPN, I am rooting for:

1) Heavy front end saturday/saturday night

2) Dry slot instead of rain

3) Sunday developer snow

That's the ONLY way we get to accumulation OTG more than a 3 sloppy inches here IMO. 

And I don't think there is a single model depiction that shows that exact scenario, but I am also not tracking every single run all day long so maybe there is.  

I think you can get 3 inches OTG without number 3 as long as 1 and 2 happen . I think 3 is going to be nuisance snow. 

[Snowlover11]

6 minutes ago, MikeS said:

Upton just cut my totals for Saturday Night from this morning..went from 3-7 inches to now 2-4 inches

 

same here went from 3-7 saturday night, additional 1-3” sunday

now to 1 inch or less saturday followed by 2-4” saturday night, additional less than 1 inch sunday so 3-6”

yet im under a warning for 5-9”

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

Sounds about right.  I will gladly take it. Even 5-6. 

Me too. I think min is 6 and absolute max is 10. 

[weatherpruf]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You’re under a winter storm watch why do you care? 

I was just doing some yard work today and walked into my new shed and there was that big snow blower taking up space and I said, I really gotta get rid of this thing....wife says wait til spring. 

[HVSnowLover]

GFS about the same. Maybe a touch north and warmer.

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference:

Our last snowstorm was in 2022, 1-2 inches is just a slopfest lol.

 

[mannynyc]

GFS is west for second wave it appears 

[vegan_edible]

gfs gives me joy, in the 6 inch kuchera zone for wp

 

and yes, i know kuchera wont be accurate

[NJwx85]

First glance 18z GFS was an improvement.