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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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MJO812
MJO812

Henry Marguisity  

BxEngine
BxEngine

Can we take the psycho analysis and the fake pessimism and the fake optimism somewhere else and stick to the weather? Holy hell this is impossible to read. 

Stormlover74
Stormlover74

You heard keno lock up the thread close up shop

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milleand

milleand

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 5:48 PM, WX-PA said:

lol..where did you find that?..hard to believe 13 years ago..I was wrong but my suggestion does make sense. These boards can drive you crazy!

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If you go to the lest page of the NY Metro forums, the boxing day storm is one of the first threads...Awesome to read through and see everyone's reaction as the models had the storm OTS and then flip flop up until late Xmas Eve

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 5:58 PM, milleand said:

If you go to the lest page of the NY Metro forums, the boxing day storm is one of the first threads...Awesome to read through and see everyone's reaction as the models had the storm OTS and then flip flop up until late Xmas Eve

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that's what we wanted in the end--OTS and then an adjustment north which seems to happen more often that not with our bigger storms

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 6:00 PM, Brian5671 said:

that's what we wanted in the end--OTS and then an adjustment north which seems to happen more often that not with our bigger storms

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The models were showing a well OTS solution and then I think the 12z Euro on 12/24 started the trend back. Models are a lot improved from then. Hard to believe I’ve been on this board since before that storm.

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 5:52 PM, WX-PA said:

That never happens.

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Yes, likely overdone BUT I do think this upcoming event it going to exceed expectations when compared to some of the over zealous model forecasts over the last few months....especially inland.  Would not be surprised to see 40-50 mph gusts over interior NNJ.  Gusts of 40 mph+ from the southeast, sodden ground, additional heavy rains are going to cause widespread tree / power issues.

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Brasiluvsnow

Brasiluvsnow

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 5:58 PM, milleand said:

If you go to the lest page of the NY Metro forums, the boxing day storm is one of the first threads...Awesome to read through and see everyone's reaction as the models had the storm OTS and then flip flop up until late Xmas Eve

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I am looking now and I don't see the thread,,,was it titled Boxing Day or something else ? Thanks

 

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 6:06 PM, HVSnowLover said:

Euro, seems less of a gradient in our region and big snows mostly even farther NW than before.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

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I don't think that map is going to be far from reality.  A tad higher interior NNJ and a little lower NYC/Western L.I.  I suspect.

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 6:16 PM, cleetussnow said:

Seems NWS is bullish LHV:  https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

mostly rain metro

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Does anyone have an updated snowfall forecast map? I'd imagine it'd be a bit less than yesterday based on the latest guidance.  

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Reminder: Avoid 10:1 Snow Maps. Go to the Soundings.

Latest illustration: 12z GFS at 36 hours. The maps show moderate to heavy snow at JFK. The sounding supports rain. The column is above freezing until one reaches 925 mb. The surface temperature is 38°. Based on the soundings, JFK has little or no accumulation of snow rather than the amounts shown on the 10:1 maps.

I highlighted the 0°C line for ease of viewing.

image.png.6b04ba1a3a3b89ef5ea6910549b58217.png

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 6:32 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Reminder: Avoid 10:1 Snow Maps. Go to the Soundings.

Latest illustration: 12z GFS at 36 hours. The maps show moderate to heavy snow at JFK. The sounding supports rain. The column is above freezing until one reaches 925 mb. The surface temperature is 38°. Based on the soundings, JFK has little or no accumulation of snow rather than the amounts shown on the 10:1 maps.

I highlighted the 0°C line for ease of viewing.

image.png.6b04ba1a3a3b89ef5ea6910549b58217.png

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Don… if you don’t mind what is the sounding for HPN just asking because I’m 10-15 miles north of HPN? 

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 6:32 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Reminder: Avoid 10:1 Snow Maps. Go to the Soundings.

Latest illustration: 12z GFS at 36 hours. The maps show moderate to heavy snow at JFK. The sounding supports rain. The column is above freezing until one reaches 925 mb. The surface temperature is 38°. Based on the soundings, JFK has little or no accumulation of snow rather than the amounts shown on the 10:1 maps.

I highlighted the 0°C line for ease of viewing.

image.png.6b04ba1a3a3b89ef5ea6910549b58217.png

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How come the model precip type outputs don't match the soundings?

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 6:47 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The GFS shows snow at HPN until near 42 hours. Then, there's at least some sleet mixing in. Surface temperatures are above freezing, though.

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I'm right next to Allgame, so much appreciated, Don!  We'll have to see if we can anything out of the Sunday part.  NWS disco seems to think that's still on the table.

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Nibor

Nibor

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 6:41 PM, HVSnowLover said:

How come the model precip type outputs don't match the soundings?

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On a coding level I’m sure it’s a pain to calculate everything to create accurate maps based on mixing lines. Weather modeling output can have different looks on different weather map services and it’s all dependent on individual coding. 

On cynical level it’s also easy to exclude certain aspects in coding maps that favor showing snow in an attempt to generate traffic which in turn generates money.

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