Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The track isn’t the issue. You have a retreating high and a weak storm. Remember when this looked like it might hit DC?

Also some models were taking this down to sub 990 earlier in the week, now it has weakened.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

The GFS is actually show a pretty impressive thump for a few hours for the places cold enough to be all snow.

Thumping and 35 so who knows

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

Also shows just how much of a difference there is climate wise between Boston and NYC

Boston is in the mid 30’s with an onshore flow until Sunday morning.

[hudsonvalley21]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Almost all rain for NYC on the 12z GFS. Maybe an hour or two of slop.

Also a little more QPF

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Thumping and 35 so who knows

 

Not terrible even for NYC but will have to come in like a wall like GFS is showing. if it's weak forget it. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[NJwx85]

Supposedly there’s a period of light snow on Sunday. Low by that point is East of Cape Cod. 6 hours too late but really helps Boston.

[NJwx85]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

 

Not terrible even for NYC but will have to come in like a wall like GFS is showing. if it's weak forget it. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

You’re not going to accumulate in the concrete jungle at 35 degrees even in January. Central Park is a different story.

[snywx]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The only thing that is stopping me from moving to Orange County is the traffic to my job.

Transfer to the bx or uptown 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You’re not going to accumulate in the concrete jungle at 35 degrees even in January. Central Park is a different story.

 

It has 4 inches in the Bronx in like 3 hours. I'm sure it's wrong anyway but if you are lower then 35 with those rates at night it could pile up fast.   

[NJwx85]

The totals increased on the GFS in areas that were already seeing all or mostly snow. Nothing has really changed. Locked in now.

[MJO812]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

 

It has 5 inches in the Bronx in like 3 hours. I'm sure it's wrong anyway but if you are lower then 35 with those rates at night it could pile up fast.   

Very strong

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

 

It has 5 inches in the Bronx in like 3 hours. I'm sure it's wrong anyway but if you are lower then 35 with those rates at night it could pile up fast.   

I don’t think I’ll even get 5” and I’m 15 miles inland.

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

Transfer to the bx or uptown 

that’s really the key. It’s not like Long Island. You get north of the cross county and you have no traffic the whole way.

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

Transfer to the bx or uptown 

Most NYPD and FDNY that I know up this way work in the bx 

[Stormlover74]

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

that’s really the key. It’s not like Long Island. You get north of the cross county and you have no traffic the whole way.

Can't the tappan zee get congested during rush hour?

[Northof78]

Both GFS/NAM strong signal for front end thump of 2-4/3-6" with no CCB/wraparound which sounds reasonable. Should be a nice storm vs. last 2 years of nothing with some period of moderate/heavy snow. 

[hudsonvalley21]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The totals increased on the GFS in areas that were already seeing all or mostly snow. Nothing has really changed. Locked in now.

It appears that the short range models have also bumped a little north in the 12z runs.

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I don’t think I’ll even get 5” and I’m 15 miles inland.

I certainly am not expecting anything close to 5 inches but I'm just saying if the precip came in as heavy as the gfs is depicting a front end thump is not out of the question even in parts of the 5 boroughs. If it's light it will be 35-36 and a mix or white rain but if heavy and with evap cooling 33-34 is plenty fine to accumulate at night.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

I certainly am not expecting anything close to 5 inches but I'm just saying if the precip came in as heavy as the gfs is depicting a front end thump is not out of the question even in parts of the 5 boroughs. If it's light it will be 35-36 and a mix or white rain but if heavy 33-34 is plenty fine to accumulate at night.

Some places will likely overperform others underperform. Always the case

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Both GFS/NAM strong signal for front end thump of 2-4/3-6" with no CCB/wraparound which sounds reasonable. Should be a nice storm vs. last 2 years of nothing with some period of moderate/heavy snow. 

Front end almost always works out better near the coast than backend anyway. Backend is generally a myth unless you have an actual strong coastal. My expectations aren't high for this by any means but some of the posts are too simplistic imo saying no where in or near NYC has a chance of a decent event. It's all about intensity and timing.

[donsutherland1]

Distribution of Daily Snowfall Amounts by Minimum Temperature with Total Precipitation of 0.50" or More and Measurable Snowfall:

Distribution of Event Average Snow-to-Liquid Ratios:

The mean event average snow-to-liquid ratio was 1.4 (standard deviation: 1.5). The lowest was near 0. The highest was 9.2.

This data was taken from the combined climate records for Bridgeport, Islip, New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia.

At present, it appears that Central Park's low temperature during the precipitation will likely be 34° or above. NAM and GFS MOS: 34°. NBE: 36° +/- 3°.

This historic data also argues for a low ratio and light accumulation of snow for New York City.

[HVSnowLover]

The track is definitely a problem on the Canadian models. That's not a NYC benchmark track and theres a reason LI is in the 40s and pouring.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

Look at the difference in low placement on the GFS and the best dynamics going right over the city. Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see how people are saying track isn't part of the problem. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024010512&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

 

 

 

[lee59]

It looks like I will be focusing soon on next weeks event as this one is turning into a big nothing here. Strong wind event next week looking more interesting. Good luck to those expecting snow.

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Also shows just how much of a difference there is climate wise between Boston and NYC

Boston the city is dealing with the same easterly wind problem we are. Waters there are a few degrees colder so they have some more wiggle room but if they’re 34-35 in snow, accums in the city will be much reduced. Once you’re in places 10 miles or so inland it’s probably the best spot to be in the whole storm. 

[Northof78]

EWR 35/13, nice airmass

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Northof78 said:

EWR 35/13, nice airmass

Winds now are out of the NW. That’ll be good enough for inland/north folks but as soon as the winds switch to E or ENE, for the coast whatever cold/dry air benefit is gone. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Boston the city is dealing with the same easterly wind problem we are. Waters there are a few degrees colder so they have some more wiggle room but if they’re 34-35 in snow, accums in the city will be much reduced. Once you’re in places 10 miles or so inland it’s probably the best spot to be in the whole storm. 

How come 10 miles west of Boston is so much bigger a difference in these storms than 10 miles north or west of NYC? Is it because of the latitude? 

[RU848789]

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Almost all rain for NYC on the 12z GFS. Maybe an hour or two of slop.

That's incorrect.  Plenty of snow "falling" - it's just not clear how much of it will accumulate with 34-35F surface temps; during the thump part, NYC looks to be below 32F (barely) for the whole column, which is good.  So verbatim there will be snow and if we can avoid a warm nose aloft (who knows?) I think a few inches (not the 4.3" on the 10:1 map below) is likely - as per the GFS, not a forecast.  

[MANDA]

I"m going with 4-6" for my location and I think I at least mix for a time before going back to snow. I've got some elevation to work with here and that is going to help.  Morristown to my southeast at lower elevation I think is 2-4" with a flip to mix or even plain rain for a time.