Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Snowlover11]

P.S stop the bricking weenies! the coast will have there shot down the road. onto the next one! it will snow again I promise!

[Dark Star]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

People put on their snow googles and see what they want to see while leaving basic meteorology out.  No cold high to the north?  Duh...not going to work out for the coast 99% of the time.

It seems a lot of newbies don't think you need cold air in the mix?

[BoulderWX]

6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

you should be good in boulder, co.

Hahaha I can’t change my name lol Moved back to morris county a couple of years ago. 

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Um who ? We had a chance of accumulating snow when this storm was modeled to stay south of us. It wasn't until it trended north when things changed.

Go back and read this thread for yourself. Same old story for you man. Meteorology over models. I’d say this is a learning experience for many but weenies never learn. Some think it’s cute but I think it’s pretty annoying. 

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

It seems a lot of newbies don't think you need cold air in the mix?

Yea that’s the frustrating part for many veterans. This board and all weather boards have honestly gone off the deep end. The new generation of weenie is completely detached from reality. People actually bought into the NAM maps showing 16” of snow. 5-10 years ago people weren’t falling for that crap

[Northof78]

Fresh, cold, dry new infusion in place, everything still seems on track with original forecast for 3-6"+ W GSP/N 78, 1-3" NYC/-I-95, C -1" east of there...enjoy what you get and ignore wobbling models...probably a shift back S/E slightly with 12/18z models as wobbling continues...

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea that’s the frustrating part for many veterans. This board and all weather boards have honestly gone off the deep end. The new generation of weenie is completely detached from reality. People actually bought into the NAM maps showing 16” of snow. 5-10 years ago people weren’t falling for that crap

Part of it is twitter and social media showing the snowiest maps....the general public here thinks a 12 inch storm is coming lol.

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Um who ? We had a chance of accumulating snow when this storm was modeled to stay south of us. It wasn't until it trended north when things changed.

On New Years Eve people were calling this out as a long shot and it would probably come north big time because of the lousy setup out west, or it could be weak and suppressed. A day or so later the bad initial conditions because of strong easterly flow and marginal airmass became apparent. Following the model shifts and especially lame snow maps made by vendors to drive subscriptions just leads to disappointment. Look at the big picture/pattern and what it will support and it gets you there 95% of the time. Eventually the models will get there. It’s going to rain a lot in Brooklyn and my backyard too, nothing we can do about it unless you want to drive north. And look at it this way, the snow up north won’t last more than a few days until the huge cutter takes it away. And there’ll be less flooding from it all melting. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Part of it is twitter and social media showing the snowiest maps....the general public here thinks a 12 inch storm is coming lol.

I just came out of the supermarket and the cashier goes to me " are you stocking up for the snowstorm " ?

I said yes , a rainstorm lol

[donsutherland1]

In terms of the concern about "waffling," there was a lot of good analysis provided by numerous people. Wdrag, Bluewave, Dark Star, among others, provided good insight. Others provided good arguments why the event could be better. It should be noted that people can provide good insight and still be wrong in the end. Forecasting is inherently uncertain and all who engage in it encounter error from time to time.

From my vantage point (which has been wrong at times and will again be wrong), there were persistent "red flags" that urged caution from the onset: Overall synoptic pattern, persistent surface temperature projections, emergent soundings data, and risks associated with extreme outlier solutions that lacked strong support.

For illustrative purposes to show how these "red flags" came into play, excerpts from some posts follow. One should also read through Bluewave's posts, as he consistently raised issues that are now playing out e.g., the impact of the upstream trough in the Southwest.

January 3:
Of concern remains surface temperatures that will be above freezing for most or all of the event. Soundings will become increasingly important as the event draws closer, but this still looks to be a wet, low ratio snowfall for NYC and its nearby suburbs.

January 3:
The importance of recognizing that the upcoming event will be a low- to very low-ratio event in New York City cannot be overstated. Most of the guidance keeps NYC above freezing throughout the storm. While model solutions showing 6"+ snow appear attractive, the early surface temperature forecasts and early soundings suggest that such figures based on a 10:1 ratio will likely be far off the mark.

January 4:
There was more downside risk than upside risk. Unfortunately, even at this point in time, there still remains somewhat more downside risk than upside risk, namely that the 1" of slushy snow to perhaps 3", if everything went well, could evolve into a coating to an inch-type scenario.

The low ratios (high confidence assumption given the consistently forecast temperatures) rendered 10:1 snowfall maps irrelevant. That included individual ensemble maps based on 10:1 ratios. In both cases, the operational and ensemble maps overstated what was likely. For an illustrative example, maps assessing the probability of 4" or more snowfall were actually assessing the probability of 2" or more snow in and around NYC and along the coastal plain, because their 10:1 ratios were not realistic.

As a result of the overnight guidance, the probability that New York City's streak without 1" or more daily snowfall, which will reach 690 days today, will continue has increased.

January 4:
Be wary of snow maps e.g., the 18z NAM's depictions...

A significant share of the precipitation is rain or mixed precipitation, not snow. For example, at 75 hours when the NAM is piling on the digital snow, the sounding shows the above freezing layer extending almost to 975 mb with above-freezing surface temperatures. Over New York City's urban heat island, that's not accumulating snow. The precipitation ends as snow, but accumulations will likely be limited. Outlier models for heavy snowfall that lack support should be disregarded given the marginal air mass and historic experience with snowfall at above freezing temperatures in New York City.

[Snowguy66]

This storm was over the minute DT started honking. Yes he did not fully commit but if it came to fruition, he would’ve been taking credit for it. There are many factors that need to be in played to get a snowstorm on the East Coast, and one of them is having DT telling you why it won’t snow. I’ve seen him on the wrong side so many times.


.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Snowguy66 said:

This storm was over the minute DT started honking. Yes he did not fully commit but if it came to fruition, he would’ve been taking credit for it. There are many factors that need to be in played to get a snowstorm on the East Coast, and one of them is having DT telling you why it won’t snow. I’ve seen him on the wrong side so many times.


.

The curse of Henry Marguisity

[LVblizzard]

2 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

This storm was over the minute DT started honking. Yes he did not fully commit but if it came to fruition, he would’ve been taking credit for it. There are many factors that need to be in played to get a snowstorm on the East Coast, and one of them is having DT telling you why it won’t snow. I’ve seen him on the wrong side so many times.


.

It was over when Henry drew a widespread 4-12” and 12-18” zone 5 days out. He is always the kiss of death for snowstorms in the east.

[MJO812]

Just now, LVblizzard said:

It was over when Henry drew a widespread 4-12” and 12-18” zone 5 days out. He is always the kiss of death for snowstorms in the east.

100 percent true

He needs to throw his big daddy hat in the garbage .

[WestBabylonWeather]

That guy was out of control for releasing that map so early. 

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Part of it is twitter and social media showing the snowiest maps....the general public here thinks a 12 inch storm is coming lol.

Those maps are a huge problem. I've increasingly starting calling out and verifying the extreme maps posted on Twitter. Those posts provide no useful guidance and only serve to undermine professional credibility of meteorologists, many of whom are outstanding, but whose insights and forecasts are drowned out by the noise of the extreme posts, blind rush to be first to make a call, etc. Indeed, a female TV meteorologist from Philadelphia was criticized on social media for not making an early call for snowfall amounts when uncertainty was high. She made a forecast for a coating to an inch in Philadelphia yesterday (her first call). That looks good. Contrast that to the social media maps showing 4"-8" or even 4"-12" in Philadelphia that dated as far back as January 1.

Quite bluntly, those who consistently post extreme solutions or earliest calls but wind up wrong over and over again lack skill. They can spin it any way they like, but skill is a function of consistent accuracy. Nothing more. Unfortunately, the public and those who read social media don't realize the absence of skill among those who take sensationalist stands. Thus, the misleading perception that meteorologists 'can't forecast' prevails even as those perceptions are far off the mark.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In terms of the concern about "waffling," there was a lot of good analysis provided by numerous people. Wdrag, Bluewave, Dark Star, among others, provided good insight. Others provided good arguments why the event could be better. It should be noted that people can provide good insight and still be wrong in the end. Forecasting is inherently uncertain and all who engage in it encounter error from time to time.

From my vantage point (which has been wrong at times and will again be wrong), there were persistent "red flags" that urged caution from the onset: Overall synoptic pattern, persistent surface temperature projections, emergent soundings data, and risks associated with extreme outlier solutions that lacked strong support.

For illustrative purposes to show how these "red flags" came into play, excerpts from some posts follow. One should also read through Bluewave's posts, as he consistently raised issues that are now playing out e.g., the impact of the upstream trough in the Southwest.

January 3:
Of concern remains surface temperatures that will be above freezing for most or all of the event. Soundings will become increasingly important as the event draws closer, but this still looks to be a wet, low ratio snowfall for NYC and its nearby suburbs.

January 3:
The importance of recognizing that the upcoming event will be a low- to very low-ratio event in New York City cannot be overstated. Most of the guidance keeps NYC above freezing throughout the storm. While model solutions showing 6"+ snow appear attractive, the early surface temperature forecasts and early soundings suggest that such figures based on a 10:1 ratio will likely be far off the mark.

January 4:
There was more downside risk than upside risk. Unfortunately, even at this point in time, there still remains somewhat more downside risk than upside risk, namely that the 1" of slushy snow to perhaps 3", if everything went well, could evolve into a coating to an inch-type scenario.

The low ratios (high confidence assumption given the consistently forecast temperatures) rendered 10:1 snowfall maps irrelevant. That included individual ensemble maps based on 10:1 ratios. In both cases, the operational and ensemble maps overstated what was likely. For an illustrative example, maps assessing the probability of 4" or more snowfall were actually assessing the probability of 2" or more snow in and around NYC and along the coastal plain, because their 10:1 ratios were not realistic.

As a result of the overnight guidance, the probability that New York City's streak without 1" or more daily snowfall, which will reach 690 days today, will continue has increased.

January 4:
Be wary of snow maps e.g., the 18z NAM's depictions...

A significant share of the precipitation is rain or mixed precipitation, not snow. For example, at 75 hours when the NAM is piling on the digital snow, the sounding shows the above freezing layer extending almost to 975 mb with above-freezing surface temperatures. Over New York City's urban heat island, that's not accumulating snow. The precipitation ends as snow, but accumulations will likely be limited. Outlier models for heavy snowfall that lack support should be disregarded given the marginal air mass and historic experience with snowfall at above freezing temperatures in New York City.

Yep exactly and thanks for your analysis. There are difficult to forecast setups we can experience here, to me this wasn’t really one of them and the outcome has been apparent for several plus days. 

[vegan_edible]

nws still giving me 3-7 in wp. my westchester crew still has a chance to see something here

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

It was over when Henry drew a widespread 4-12” and 12-18” zone 5 days out. He is always the kiss of death for snowstorms in the east.

Stop following (not saying you but others) vendors who just want clicks and subscriptions. 

[North and West]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Those maps are a huge problem. I've increasingly starting calling out and verifying the extreme maps posted on Twitter. Those posts provide no useful guidance and only serve to undermine professional credibility of meteorologists, many of whom are outstanding, but whose insights and forecasts are drowned out by the noise of the extreme posts, blind rush to be first to make a call, etc. Indeed, a female TV meteorologist from Philadelphia was criticized on social media for not making an early call for snowfall amounts when uncertainty was high. She made a forecast for a coating to an inch in Philadelphia yesterday (her first call). That looks good. Contrast that to the social media maps showing 4"-8" or even 4"-12" in Philadelphia that dated as far back as January 1.

Quite bluntly, those who consistently post extreme solutions or earliest calls but wind up wrong over and over again lack skill. They can spin it any way they like, but skill is a function of consistent accuracy. Nothing more. Unfortunately, the public and those who read social media don't realize the absence of skill among those who take sensationalist stands. Thus, the misleading perception that meteorologists 'can't forecast' prevails even as those perceptions are far off the mark.

Glad to see you doing that. 

It's symptomatic of the same thing happening in the rest of the media and other subjects... CNN and other news stations are notorious for wanting to be first rather than right; in the baseball offseason, people lost their minds when Ohtani's plane was allegedly in flight to Toronto, only to have it end up being plane of the guy from Shark Tank.

People rush to conclusions, damn the consequences. 

[sn0w]

28 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Hahaha I can’t change my name lol Moved back to morris county a couple of years ago. 

You can change your location, it still shows as Boulder, CO

[Retrobuc]

I lived in NJ for 50 years until moving to FL a few years ago.  These types of events rarely work out for most of NJ and the rain/snow line is usually well north of where its predicted.  And resting hopes on the CCB snow being where its forecast is a fools errand.  Enjoy whatever snow falls!

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

Glad to see you doing that. 

It's symptomatic of the same thing happening in the rest of the media and other subjects... CNN and other news stations are notorious for wanting to be first rather than right; in the baseball offseason, people lost their minds when Ohtani's plane was allegedly in flight to Toronto, only to have it end up being plane of the guy from Shark Tank.

People rush to conclusions, damn the consequences. 

In the past, I used to ignore it. But the problem has become so widespread that I now call them out. It's unfortunate, as it really takes time that I'd prefer to be doing some other things.

[NittanyWx]

Not much new on my side.  Getting further confirmation marginal temp profile both at the surface and aloft made this a mixing ptype and accumulation issue for coastal plain (LI, City, S of 287/Merritt) and that the north of 287/merritt crowd was best positioned for significant accumulating snow and that has not changed.

[NittanyWx]

And will also say this for the 100th time, if the clown maps let you down that's mostly a 'you' problem if you don't look at the soundings and surface temps.

[vegan_edible]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

In the past, I used to ignore it. But the problem has become so widespread that I now call them out. It's unfortunate, as it really takes time that I'd prefer to be doing some other things.

seriously, appreciate your efforts don. it's quite insane how these things work. i'm 28 and have cut social media out of my life (amwx and slap skateboarding forum are my only "social" medias now lol), the younger generation is driven by immediate and constant gratification due to advances in technology and this bleeds into other facets of society. everyone wants big numbers, now, faster, better, and will forget about it in 2 seconds. compile that with storytelling vs science and you have a dangerous combination. it diminishes the hard work that you and other mets do to provide an accurate forecast for the people. it saddens me to think that if our society could take a step back and let the real professionals take the reigns we would all be much happier, safer and grateful for what we have. unfortunately, it seems as though critical thinking and rationalization has gone out the window. i've learned so much from you and some notable others on this board in the one year i've been on here and it's truly a gift to see where the real science flourishes

[vegan_edible]

... in other more "unrealistic" news

nam appears to be more east 

shows a decent front end thump then mixing to rain in westchester/dryslotting nj at 06z. we'll see if the trailing shortwave does anything. 

also its the nam so at this point its just fun and games

[Northof78]

NAM 12Z as expected shifted SE/colder and most precip fall as snow w of Hudson with front end thump, 3-6"/4-8" verbatim

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

The models move run to run. it is the same storm for 4 days

A Rain Snow line thru the Bronx + or - a few miles

 

Yea it hasn’t changed drastically although the overnight runs were definitely not the right direction for anyone SE of I287. The big snows will be NW of the Tappan Zee which has kind of been the expectation for days now but I would still not expect a total blanking though for northern NYC on north. 

[Northof78]